Incorrect. Ukraine was the third or fourth foray into expansionism. The West tends to forget about Chechnya, Georgia, and Crimea. That’s part of what makes the current war in Ukraine so ominous - it’s part of a series of such efforts on the part of Russia which is why it’s laughable to think Russia intends to stop with Ukraine.
I’m not convinced all the European nations currently dependent on Russian oil would take such steps. To do so would require massive infrastructure funding and building in a world already under economic stress. It would also require a level of self-discipline and refusal of the cheaper alternative (Russia), who would probably slash prices to keep Europe drinking from their pipelines. Too many focus on just the bottom line and not the greater context, which is how we get into these situations.
I think so, but as already pointed out not being directly affected makes it easy for me to say that.
Yes. Putin himself said similar things in public speeches just before/early in the current war. And it’s not “former USSR”, Putin was talking about recreating the Tsarist Russian Empire which stretched from Finland to Alaska. At one point in the 19th Century Russia also had holdings in Hawaii and a bit of California. One of those talking heads on Russia TV was asserting that Russia never sold Alaska to the US, they only leased it (like Britian did Hong Kong) and the Americans have reneged on giving it back. Wonder if anyone kept the receipt from that transaction? Check the Smithsonian.
And that is the counter-balance to Russia dangling the offer of cheaper oil if only Europe will let Putin eat Ukraine. After he digests Ukraine he’ll be hungry again and looking for the next bite.
And this would be happening in a world where they’d already compromised their principles because of some short-term economic pain. A Europe that will surrender to Russia under these conditions is a Europe that will never do what’s needed to be done to reduce Russia’s influence. If there are enough people in Europe who support such a plan that there’s a real chance it could ever happen, we’ve already lost.
No, we should have never given in in the past (Chechnia, Georgia, Crimea and others) nor should we give in now. I am glad our political leaders are realizing that at last, even in Germany.
And to those that reproach Europe its dependence on Russian energy (not only gas, but also oil) I would like to remind them of the USA’s historical dependence on the Gulf’s oil and gas. Just because the Saudis don’t yet have the bomb or thousands of tanks close to your border does not mean that they can do no harm, as they in fact have. And both continents depend heavily on China for the economy in general, that is unavoidable. But there are limits, and those must be made clear. One of those limits is open, aggresive fascism.
We, the Europeans, count on you, the USA, to be on our side. We need you a bit more than you need us, but in the end we need each other. So please be careful what leaders you elect.
Norway pledged its first batch of military aid just days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in turn breaking a 60-year ban on arms exports to active warzones. [1]
Poland has a very, very long standing distrust of Russia, and with good reason given the number of times throughout its history that Russia has treated it as a doormat. The last time Poland was loosely aligned with Russia was when it was a rather involuntary member of the Warsaw Pact, having no practical choice in the matter what with all those Soviet troops in its country that never left after WW2 - which began, of course with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact which arranged peace between Hitler and Stalin on the basis of carving up Poland between the two of them.
Poland has provided more arms to Ukraine than any other European country, and more than any country at all barring the US. This surprised me not at all, I fully expected countries such as Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic to support Ukraine with arms. From Oryx:
Few countries have offered Ukraine even half the extent of military support that Poland has provided. Polish military aid to Ukraine has so far encompassed well over 300 armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs), including over 230 tanks and some 110 pieces of self-propelled guns and multiple rocket launchers, amongst a host of other weapon types. Poland also serves the important role of central transit hub for arms donations to Ukraine, and the majority of Western military aid enters through Poland. Even though Poland does not disclose details of most of its arms deliveries, a great number of armament types have meanwhile been spotted or reported on by authorities in Ukraine.
Arguably the most significant Polish arms delivery consists of some 230+ T-72M(R) and T-72M1(R) MBTs. While Spain and Germany considered but ultimately refrained from sending ten Leopard 2A4s and 88 Leopard 1A5s, Poland (along with North Macedonia) showed little hesitation in transferring a significant portion of its combat-ready T-72 tank fleet to Ukraine in April, where they were subsequently up-armoured through the addition of Kontakt-1 explosive reactive armour (ERA).
That’s what we call cherry picking. Scandinavia had a brief period of being committed to neutrality after the Napoleonic wars. But that was interrupted by WWII and there’s a big gulf between Sweden’s neutrality and Denmark and Norway’s NATO participation. Norway might avoid exporting arms to active warzones, but only when neither country is an ally, which is hardly a general neutral stance. Participating in NATO missions can’t be described as neutrality either.
As a Danish socialist, I remember that one quite well. It was not any socialist who said that but Mogens Glistrup, a right-wing populist politician who founded Fremskridtspartiet.
Sure western Europe’s economy is suffering because it isn’t shipping Russian gas. But Russia’s economy is suffering for the same reason. And I feel the signs are that Russia is suffering worse (probably because they have the costs of a war to go along with the loss of gas sales).
Maybe Putin is the one who needs to admit he screwed up.
Between the fact that effective sanctions take some time to work, and the fact that not everybody abides by the sanctions, I don’t think that Russia is suffering to the degree that you think.
Not true. The proposal was made by Mogens Glistrup, a quasi libertarian and founder of Framskridspartiet, quite similar to Berlusconi’s Forza Italia.
As for Poland and Hungary. What the Polish people want, and pressure their leaders to do is quite different from what their leaders do: stacking the courts, holocaust semi-denial, and aligning the country with Hungary. I trust I don’t have to write anything about Hungary’s Victor Orban and his infatuation with Putin.
The two countries are helping each other avoiding EU sanctions.
With the invasion of Ukraine, the Polish and Hungarian people are naturally wary/afraid, given the history of the 20th century. That doesn’t mean we should trust their leaders.
BTW, a Hungarian blog doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.
Not only that, but it’s possible that a serious shortage of Russian natural gas will drive EU states to invest in renewable energy to a huge amount, thereby gaining energy independence AND reducing emissions.
I fear that if we do give into to Putin’s tyranny, it will only encourage his aggression towards others. So, I suppose I’m gonna hafta vote “NO” on this one.
Putin is a DICtator, pure & simple! I am so NOT looking forward to what lies ahead, but we all know who we have to blame for any misery suffered by the entire world over this!
We hear talk of hitmen, assassins, spies and such. Where are these deadly people now? Why are the other countries just sitting back & doing nothing? As powerful as some of them have claimed to be in the past, you’d think they would be ticked off at the fact that some pasty, evil, Russian DICtator is making them look like, well, a “senile, old president”!
Perhaps, Putin should be “taken care of”. If he wants to throw his weight around, then let’s throw it back at him! Not even one person on this planet should give Russia a frickin’ thing, in any shape, way or form!!! Not even the time of day!!! If we’re going to chastise him, THEN DO SO!! Stop pussy-footin’ around & PUNISH the neanderthal !! If you spare the rod, you’ll spoil the child. Right? Okay then! Have at it!!
If the rest of us must go through this BS, then SO DOES RUSSIA!!
Look, Putin - as huge as your country is, you don’t need to add to it! At least until every single citizen of Russia is wealthy & no longer needful of the necessities of life. Until that happens, stay in your own frickin’ yard & stop bullying others! If you prove that you are once again willing to play nice, maybe the rest of us will be more apt to associate ourselves with you, & share our toys!!!
The concern is that what a faction of the political leadership in some of these places doesn’t want is Russian hegemony. On that they agree with the people. They’ll associate with the rest of Europe for protection from that. But not because they value a liberal diverse society, those leaders still consider Liberal Europe values to be weak, decadent, soft, unmanly, elitist, unchristian, etc. And if the rest of Europe backs down, they may see that as proof and seriously consider whether it’s not better to reach an accommodation with the side that’s “virile” and tough and will hurt them if they cross it.
Yeah, next would be Latvia, Lithuanian and Estonia. Finland, Armenia, Poland, the rest of Georgia, Turkestan and others. All that was once part of the USSR or Russian Empire. Maybe not Alaska.
I don’t understand the logistics of the industry, but how can’t Europe find a replacement in Qatar, Egypt, or any country with considerable gas reserves? Why is this never seriously discussed?
This is going to produce a curious outcome in ten or twenty years. You will have a radically divided world where at least a generation or two will have been born in a world where Russians can’t go to Paris (or whatever other outcome of the sanctions).
Let’s face it, Putin’s regime is so deeply instilled in the Russian state, and there’s already a generation of Russians that hasn’t seen any other president. He’s not going away any time soon, and if he dies, his ‘republic’ will continue on the hands of several eligible candidates who will be as protected as he is by the same technologies and agencies.
It is seriously discussed, but the logistics of transport are hard. A pipeline from Russia (there are a lot, several of which run though Ucrania, btw.) can transport lots of gas cheaply, reliably and flexibly at short notice. Germany has never built terminals to unload and re-gasify LNG (liquid natural gas) that can be transported by ship. It is much more expensive, they (we?) did not buy the insurance. They are building those terminals in a haste, the fastest they can get are floating terminals. It is awfully expensive, particularly because the providers of these technical wonders know they can charge heftily.
Perhaps, but that is not what happened in Spain, for instance. Who knows? Defeating Russia now would ease a lot of things. The faster, the better.
Awesome. Europeans will discover a way around the laws of physics. Somehow they will find a way to have non fossil fuels* have equivalent energy density as fossil fuels do.
No. What will happen is increased investment in oil and gas from alternate sources.
*There is one. Nuclear power. But the Euros are more scared of that than Putin. Plus unfortunately many of the uranium deposits are also in Russia.
