Change has to come from inside but external contacts and trade facilitate it and isolation prevents it.
Cuba is not isolated and has not been for decades. It trades with the entire world, including the US, tourists from all over the world, including the US visit Cuba every year. Amount of change in that time? Next to nothing.
Yes, but opening trade with the 800-pound gorilla of the Western Hemisphere, which is only spitting distance from Cuba’s shores, might have very different effects.
American culture is a virus, man. Will open communication force the government to change? No. But I think that the impact of free trade with America would be enough to make people in Cuba more wealthy, healthier, and possibly force social change to come from within.
It almost certainly couldn’t make things worse. So… can’t see a down side, here.
I doubt it would be an immediate collapse. If anything, the lifting of the embargo would be declared a victory by Havana and would give the regime a temporary boost in prestige. But in the long run, they’d have lost an easy target to blame for domestic problems and that would weaken the regime. Of course, the Castros don’t really have a long run at this point anyway.
At the very least it would provide for an easier time of negotiating deals and concessions, when it’s not perceived as always prefaced by the demand that the regime essentially dissolve itself first. As mentioned elsewhere, how effective has “FIRST you will have full democracy, THEN we’ll talk” been as a policy elsewhere?
Not that I harbor any illusions: The regime in Beijing, for instance, is still every bit a repressive dictatorship even thought they’ve been happy bedmates with the West in “free trade” for years. Raul and the next-generation Party Leaders probably are looking for a Vietnam/China-style solution in which a modest raise in living standards to the masses gets them too busy working to care that the Party stays in power – but they want one that does not involve the masses directly getting actual money/property, which is where they fail IMO. Opening up Cuba/US relations wil not result in manna from heaven over the island but it could redirect attention and resourses from trying to “punish” to trying to achieve something productive.
I keep hearing that, but I have not been able to find one instance where trade with the US made any difference to the politics of a country.
Not only the USA but external contacts. Spain in the 1950s was as backwards a dictatorship as you could find. The opening up in the 60s, foreign investment, tourism, etc, began to change things. It was not apparent at first but by the end of the 60s there was strong political unrest and by the time Franco died in 1975 the desire for change was just huge which resulted in a transition to democracy which never would have happened were it not for all the external influence of the previous years.
I have no doubt tourism does have an influence in Cuba. Cubans talk to tourists and exchange views and realize that, contrary to what the government tells them, there is s better life out there. They discuss with tourists issues about democracy and freedom and they see the tourists have a standard of living which Cuibans can only dream of. That is powerful influence even if the effects are not immediate.
I believe foreign contact does and is having a positive effect in Cuba.
Not to derail this thread but anyone who says this about China does not know much about China. China has advanced by leaps and bounds in the right direction and can rightly be proud of that. You also need to understand the objective of other countries is not to be copies of the USA. In the last 25 years China has progressed in the right direction more than anyone could foresee.
I suspect trade would be a one way affair. There is already American tourism into Cuba to the tune of 100,000 people a year. Cuba is still a communist country (which restricts outside influence including the internet) I don’t see an influx of tourism beyond what the government thinks it can monitor.
From a political standpoint I can see where it would be a big “screw you” to Chavez and Medvedev but on the flip side I would expect the Cuban government to side with their influence. I would be surprised if anything changed beyond the much-desired flow of goods out of Cuba which would prop up the government.
Well Cuba has 4 exports they could step up a bit.
Baseball players, the MLB owners are salivating for a chance to turn Cuba into another part of the feeder system.
Sugar of course could be stepped up. Not a huge deal but it would probably mean a significant amount of money for cash starved Cuba and it would not take a lot to increase production from what I have read.
Cuban Cigars of course.
Classic Cars will star flowing to Florida.
In the meantime they will begin importing some food and some computer related products from the USA is a reasonable hope. I doubt anyone is suggesting a unilateral dropping of the current conditions. I am sure that something could be negotiated that is mutually beneficial.
I think little by little as more money flows in a small middle class will grow and push for more. At least that is how it is suppose to work.
But those “classic cars” aren’t collectable cars lovingly kept in original condition for 50 years. They’re held together by spit and baling wire and have parts from all over. Classic car collectors want original cars, not mutant hybrids. Anybody who wants a Cuban-style classic car can buy a cheap non-working corpse of a 50s car and hire a couple guys to do whatever it takes to get it working. But that won’t result in a collectable car. The only reason those 50s cars are still on the streets is that it’s illegal for Cubans to own a private car unless they owned one at the time of the revolution. The cars that are still running are like the hammer that belonged to my grandfather, the one that I’ve only had to replace the handle three times and the head twice. There are plenty of rusted out 50s cars sitting in junkyards that would do just as well.
As for sugar, Cuba can’t export sugar to the US because of our protective tarrifs that essentially make all imported sugar prohibitively expensive which is why we drink Coke with corn syrup.
Cuban cigars are famous the reason they’re famous is because you can’t get them. They’re like Coors beer east of the Mississippi back in the 70s. But at least this is a possible specialty market where it is possible to differentiate your product and charge a premium price, unlike sugar.
Baseball players are probably the best bet.
I realize this stance may be seen as ethically and morally bankrupt but I think there are only two circumstances where the U.S. should not have diplomatic relations with a country.
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When we are at war with the country; or
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When our diplomatic presence in the country is or would be met with hostility from the home government (e.g., our embassy is seized like it was in Iran).
Our current refusal to have full diplomatic relations with Cuba does meet any of these criteria. The Cold War is long over and we are not involved in any type of direct conflict with Cuba. An American embassy is Havana is not going to be seized by angry mobs backed by the Raul Castro and our ambassador will not be in danger of being shot. The only reasons why we haven’t restored relations by now is because we’re holding a grudge against the country and whatever party that’s in power is still afraid of pissing off the Cuban-American community in Dade County and possibly losing Florida for the next 20 years.
Trade relations are different. However, in this instance, I think easing up on the embargo is long overdue. I’d like to see a thawing in US-Cuba diplomatic and trade relations in an Obama Administration but I don’t think it would be that much of priority. Despite the apparent softening toward Cuban relations among younger Cuban-Americans, the potential political consequences are still too risky for the Democrats.
Cuba can import anything cheaper they want now from China. And you might want to research computer use in Cuba.
As far as trade is concerned it’s a one-way flow of goods. Do you think the influx of money will help or hinder the current communist regime?
Well, I’m not sure how safe an american embassy would be in Cuba. The Cuban government has built a permanent protest stage in from the of the US Intetest Section in Havana, called “el protestódromo”, which has been very, very volatile.
At the worst, this would just be an annoying nuisance. Once diplomatic relations are resumed, I’m fairly sure we wouldn’t see anything like what happened to our embassy in Iran in 1979.
We could subvert them with rap music.
The argument that trade with the US will transform Cuba, well, how much has trade and tourism and diplomatic relations changed Jamaica, or Haiti, or the Dominican Republic, or Guatemala, or Honduras, and so on? Not that keeping the embargo makes any kind of sense, but Cuba is a desperately poor country and it’s going to stay a poor country for a long time no matter what US policy towards Cuba.
Too late! If you have a chance, and if you like rap music, try the Cuban group Orishas. Especially their first album “A Lo Cubano”, it is inspired.
Sadly I must agree. I can imagine a future where the well educated Cuban population can get to work setting up call centers, manufactoring centers, tourism based businesses, and the standard of living in Cuba rises and rises, but so many things must change before that happens that this is not a realistic scenario. It breaks my heart.