This thread on Reddit exemplifies the kind of discussion I’m talking about that I’ve seen multiple times when responding to similar statements by doctors and politicians. Is it harmful to tell people to obey restrictions even after getting vaccinated? Those who say so seem to think that it discourages people from getting vaccinated, because why take a “rushed” vaccine if it won’t make any difference to your life anyway, and that people are going to go hog wild after they get vaccinated, that needs to be acknowledged, and there’s nothing necessarily wrong about that. The other side seems to think that continuing to follow restrictions is medically necessary due to incomplete information, and that people who don’t are selfish and need to just suck it up to get the virus under control. (My reading of it; take a look at the comments on the linked thread and similar topics for more.)
I’m actually surprised by the number of folks I see in the coronavirus sub arguing the former, considering its rep for being doomsaying and contemptuous of those who don’t take every precaution available. Is this pandemic fatigue brought to stark reality? Is there anything we can and should do about it? I can see both sides of the basic argument, but who’s more right?
If the vaccine is 95% affective then that means that one in twenty can still get and pass on the virus. Until a large percentage of the population get immunized the virus will continue to seek out new host. So yes, mask wearing should continue in order to minimize any further spread and not allowing more mutant strains to develope that may be vaccine resistant.
But will people listen? No. People just don’t seem to care about people other than family and often not even them.
But it’s not just mask wearing. There are costs to living a fully COVID-cautious life.
What if someone’s elderly mother is in a nursing home? Pre-vaccine, the advice was to let her spend what may well be her days in lonely isolation because visiting meant you could kill her–and others in the nursing home. But if she’s vaccinated and your vaccinated and the nursing home is vaccinated, does that still hold? I mean, yes, you could kill her (and other residents) but it’s now dramatically less likely. I mean, in 2018, you risked killing her–and others–with the flu every time you visited, but the risk was very low, so we considered it acceptable. Is the risk of infecting her (and others) in the home still so great that she needs to continue to sit alone ? Or can you go visit her with a clean conscience? It’s easy to say “just in case, leave her alone”, but I feel like if it were my mom, I wouldn’t find the argument compelling.
I am fine with “keep wearing a mask”, For one thing, people don’t know whose been vaccinated, so it just makes everyone more comfortable. And it’s low cost. But we have grandparents who have never met grandchildren born in this last year. Close friends that haven’t seen each other. People who live alone and haven’t been touched by another human being. I don’t think there’s evidence that those people should feel compelled to live with the exact same precautions–I really don’t think it would be foolhardy for a two friends, both vaccinated, to meet for a drink indoors, or to hug each other. For a person who has been vaccinated to get a haircut in a salon or take an uber–wear a mask, wash your hands, but surely some increased level of risk is now acceptable?
It seems to me that broader public-health concerns mean that public restrictions need to continue as long as the rate of community spread is high. You can’t give a vaccine exception to mask wearing or going to bars or whatever because, for one, lots of people will just lie about having gotten a vaccine.
But as far as personal behavior: once I’ve been vaccinated and so has another person, I’m not going to worry about inviting them to my house for dinner. Sure, there’s still a small chance of infection, but if we’re both vaccinated and we assume a 20-fold reduction in risk, that’s a 400x reduction in the risk that one of us will give it to the other.
And my risk was already pretty low because I’m hardly leaving the house and I wear a mask everywhere when I do. Seems like an acceptable risk to me.
I’m not totally sure, but I think it’s a 200x reduction, if we assume you both are equally likely to contract it outside of your meetup? Adding together the probabilities that you give it to friend or that friend gives it to you?
I mean, regardless, you all have fun, it’s probably just fine.
P.S. Although I wouldn’t put a number on it, if you are in a bubble of people who were vaccinated long enough ago to be protected, COVID is going to be quite a rare disease for you. I can’t live my life trying to never get every rare disease (although you still have to wear a mask to set a good example).
Depends on what you mean by “vaccinated people.” If you just got the first dose this morning, then heck yeah, you should still be following the restrictions.
It will typically take a few weeks for sufficient immunity to build up after getting vaccinated against Covid-19 (per the CDC).
As is true for all vaccines, expect a small minority of people not to get adequate protection from the vaccines, due to factors such as innate response.
There are diseases (measles for one) that are so contagious that outbreaks (with index cases in the unvaccinated) can be fueled by close contacts even in a relatively well-vaccinated population. Covid-19 apparently isn’t quite in that class, but is still quite contagious.
Having a bunch of people running around without masks following vaccination in the belief they’re protected, encourages others to let down their guard.
Evidence to date suggests the vaccines are working, but we won’t know just how well for awhile yet.
It makes sense to continue taking precautions once vaccinated, until infection rates have dropped markedly.
Do you think a vaccinated person should follow the exact same precautions as a non-vaccinated person? Is there any range of activities that go from “too risky for an individual/socially irresponsible” to “acceptable risk”?
It might be reasonable a few weeks after vaccination to have that dental checkup you’ve been putting off, or eat out at a restaurant that’s following proper distancing guidelines.
As mentioned, attending or hosting a Super Bowl gathering is not a good idea.
Yes, I think this is the case. A vaccinated person without a mask is probably better protected from catching COVID-19 than a non-vaccinated person wearing a mask. I think being vaccinated does allow certain activities to be low risk enough to be acceptable.
For example, with the explosion in community spread around November, we stopped visiting my in-laws. Both households are behaving responsibly, but with “red” level community spread it was not worth increasing their risk with the additional exposure, plus it was against the rules. Even when the state decided that red level counties only had to follow orange level restrictions, so visits were allowed, we have still have stayed apart. They’ve now been vaccinated, so once they’ve had time to develop an immunity, I feel it will be an acceptable risk to resume visits.
I am NOT advocating vaccinated only dance parties, or things like that. Community spread is still too high, and the unknown possibility of vaccinated people being carriers still makes such things too risky. Vaccinated people should still be required to wear masks and practice distancing in public for now.
As more people get vaccinated I think the risk profile will continue to change, perhaps going as far as some resemblance of the before times in a year or so. That is making the huge assumption that people actually bother to get vaccinated.
It’s not quite either because you can’t just add the probabilities; there’s a slim chance that we both get it outside and then somehow both transmit different strains to each other, but it’s closer to 400x.
If the probability that I get it from someone else is P and the probability that I transmit it to the other is R, then the chance of both happening is PR. then after we both have a 95% reduction, the chance that I get it and transmit it is P/20 * R/20 = PR/400. Yes, the chance that it goes the other direction is the same, but if you’re going to add those to get PR/200, then you have to add the original probabilities too, and get 2*PR. Either way it’s a 400x improvement because each transmission step is 20x less likely.
The general consensus in the medical world seems to be that you can transmit the infection, even if you have been vaccinated or have immunity from having had COVID. So keep wearing the mask and washing your hands. It is not so much for your sake as for other people’s sake.
Let me rephrase ourselves. There are a lot of people, myself included, who are currently living at tow or three times the level of actual legal restriction. Lots of people vastly curtailing day to day life out of a sense or fear and social responsibility, while watching others do the bare minimum. So I am pretty resistant to the message that the vaccine means nothing, and I should voluntarily give up another year of my life, that I still won’t be able to hug my mom or go see my sister or sit on a friend’s porch and have a glass of wine without being socially irresponsible.
I did not address part two of the question. Well, it seems that the Europeans are more likely to follow any official guidelines, although you get a number of COVID-sceptics. The problem of compliance seems to be far worse in the USA, but in the last resort it is just a bunch of people who think they know better than the professionals. And would there be as much talk of individual liberties if a far more deadly epidemic hit, if something like Ebola got loose in the West?
People just don’t seem to care about people other than family and often not even them.