I’m in California too, and statewide Obama is so far ahead that he just comes to collect some money. I’m sure she’s looked on fondly where you live, but not so much where most of the people live, like LA and the Bay Area.
But if she resigns, we will have no one qualified to confront the dire issue of witchcraft in America!
Hey, I hope you’re right. But I don’t share your confidence.
Take a deep breath and stop worrying.
So chill, ok?
Let me guess; southern Orange County? They still look back fondly on Nixon down there.
Obama’s numbers are good, both nationally and in the states that matter. Do you have some reason to think the numbers are faulty? What your local area (in California no less, no way in hell Obama won’t win it) is saying isn’t really relevant.
Things can, of course, change, but for now things look very good for him.
ETA: Just today Gallup is +3 O and Rasmussen +2 O from yesterday. Given their rolling average thing he must’ve had superb days.
Nobody expects a Half-Baked Alaskan Inquisition!
I look back fondly on Nixon. Of course, the way politics are shifting, Nixon would be to the left of Bill Clinton by todays standards.
When I compare Joe Biden there to the clips I’ve seen from the Katie Couric interview with Palin - Oh, Shayna, that’s just sad! So why can’t I stop grinning?
Shouldn’t folks around here just accept that Palin is going to be on the ballot in November at this point? You don’t have to voter for her.
No I’m far to the north which is one of the reasons I’m concerned. My community is a bedroom cummunity for the Bay Area. I don’t care what the polls say, it doesn’t match what I’m seeing and hearing on the ground.
Because you are sane? Sure hope there’s lot’s more like you left Stateside.
It can’t be stressed enough. The vast majority of the American people do not vote for candidates because they are intelligent. As an earlier poster implied, mistakes and gaffes can even endear a candidate more to voters. “Shucks, he/she is just like us. Plain folks!”
Reagan, of course, was one of the most gaffe-prone Presidents ever. He was also one of the most popular.
There are. Unfortunately, they may all be on the Dope.
There is a world of difference between gaffes and being unintelligent, unprepared, and uninterested. While good looks, charm, and a nice attitude can appeal to a great many people, I don’t think even they can overcome the flaws. But I’ve overestimated the intelligence and priorities of the right before…
Then we must impose the dictatorship of the Cecilian revolutionary cadres! Down with the running dog jackals of the ruling class of ignorance!
If you trust authority, if you accept explanations just because they fit your views, if believe everything you are told, you might say to yourself, “This race is close! The voters must not like Barack Obama.”
If you are a suspicious bastard like me, you say, “What is the mechanism for creating these polls? How do the arrive at this figure?”
Answer: statistics are weighted according to whether the respondent is a “likely voter,” weighted according to general population distribution, weighted to offset the random nature of the sample.
Suppose you call 1000 people. Of the 1000 you call, 720 are white, 90 are black, and 130 are Hispanic. However, 12% of the nation as a whole is black, 12% Hispanic, and 50% white, so you have to adjust the weight of your answers to match what you think reality should be. If only 5% of all blacks voted in the last election, you weight the black respondents accordingly — assuming that they won’t vote againt his time. Maybe. It’s not an exact science, with a lot of “with the grace o’ God and a long-handled spoon” calculations involved.
If you look at the polls today as a whole, and see a statistical dead heat, the best conclusion you can draw is “based on the voting habits of the old white men who voted last time, it’s a dead heat.”
I’m game. Where do we start?
Oh, wait. That’s what the SDMB is trying to do, isn’t it?
ETA: Or did you want guns and stuff?
Yeah, but then, wasn’t that more about Ford losing the election than it was Carter winning? After all, Ford’s pardoning of Nixon was most likely what did him in.
700B ought to do us. Then we can start our own reality-based country.