But it was fleeting. They spun around like a figure skater to excuse him again.
For a brief time after 1/6, it seemed like the majority of the Republicans were done with him. Then it’s like someone took that mind wipe device from Men in Black and zapped them all so that they forgot about it and went right back to being Trumplicans again.
It’s possible that something could turn them and actually make it stick, like a criminal conviction, but honestly I’m not holding my breath.
Where’s the evidence that Republicans have turned on Trump? He’s polling 50 points ahead of his nearest competitor among Republican primary voters. Here’s a list of Republican officeholders who have already endorsed him for the nomination. Go ahead and compare that to Ron Desantis or Nikki Haley.
What’s your evidence of any serious efforts by Republicans to deny Trump the nomination – besides empty speculation about backroom cabals?
Except I doubt the justices are thinking in political terms. Rulings are not supposed to be goal-oriented. My guess is that they’ll rule on what they truly believe the letter of the law and the constitution says.
Do you understand the concept of working in secret? Which is what I said they were doing. They don’t invite me to these discussions because I’m not a Republican.
Here’s some possible scenarios:
Despite the fact that Trump himself lost the 2020 general election and that Trump-endorsed candidates lost in general elections in 2018, 2020, and 2022 and that Trump has been charged with a bunch of new crimes since 2020, his victory in the 2024 general election is a sure thing. So the Republicans will back Trump because he’s going to win.
Trump will lose. But the Republicans will support him out of a sense of loyalty to the man. Because the Republicans believe that personal loyalty is more important than winning elections.
Trump will lose. But the Republicans will support him as their candidate if he’s chosen in the primaries and then accept the outcome of the general election if he then loses to Biden. Because the Republicans believe in the sanctity of elections and would never do anything to interfere with how people vote.
The Republicans have no choice. Trump is a political mastermind who is in control of events and will outmaneuver the entire party when it tries to oppose him.
Now you tell me which of those scenarios sounds plausible to you and give us the evidence you have to support it.
Here’s my scenario:
The Republicans have been quietly working on interfering in election results for the last few decades in order to ensure Republicans get elected. They will do so again this year.
But I’m still curious if by “Republicans” he meant national party hacks, congressmen, state party folks, or voters. Or for that matter the great media / scamming industry built up around the trump traveling circus shitshow?
I’m going to suggest that the split of people wishing trump would be disqualified varies greatly in those groups.
And the numbers would be different again if we changed “disqualified” to “died”.
I’m not sure how to have a productive conversation about a secret conspiracy to deny Trump the nomination that exists solely in your head, so I’m gonna bow out.
I guess we could set mileposts (a) after Super Tuesday, (b) after SCOTUS rules on disqualification (c) after the Convention (d) after the election to see if there is any sign of a concerted plan to stop Trump, as opposed to just desperate flailing and prayers for him to fall without taking everyone else down with him.
Are there factions within the R party traditionalists who would love to have trump out of the way? You bet; they won’t get back to business as usual until he’s gone.
Are they making wishful plans for after the deus ex machina delivers them into Nirvana? Sure.
IMO there’s damn little they can do to hasten the day. And they know it. So damn little is being done.
Corporate America is similar.
In any contingent situation you have to balance doing offensively what will deliver your optimal outcome versus doing defensively what will prevent your pessimal outcome.
As somebody said recently, and maybe upthread here, a full-throated denunciation of trump is already dangerous. His odds of winning & being a vindictive totalitarian aimed at your face are already uncomfortably high. Gonna see a lot of triangulation going forwards.
Americans are not used to living under police states and many prominent Americans are understandably cautious to not be on the first list of examples to be made.
That Men in Black device was called polling data which should that Trump had lost minimal support from his base who were finding all sorts of convoluted rationalizations as to why Jan 6th either had nothing to do with him, or was a good thing, or both, and so continued their unwavering loyalty. So long as the base supports him they will (publically at least) gladly follow him off any cliff he marches towards.
Although as the OP states, they might be looking for an opportunity to push him off first and do an immediate about face as he goes splat at the bottom.
Republicans winning Republican primaries is not exactly a surprise.
And it’s hardly all they need to do. Winning a primary doesn’t count for much if the candidate then loses the general election. Which is the point I’ve been making.
I don’t think Trump can win the general election against Biden. I don’t think the leadership of the Republican party thinks he can either. I think that they will try to influence the outcomes of the primary elections to prevent Trump from being their party’s nominee.
Sucking up to Trump is the mandatory first step in what they need to do. And for many of them, this is the conundrum as you have pointed out. They can’t get past first base without sucking up to Trump. And then sucking up to Trump is the thing that will get them hammered in the general.
I do think that many Republican politicians are secretly praying that the Supreme Court will do their job for them. Because they simply can’t do it themselves.
But I think that the Republican party (such as it is) is fairly powerless to influence the presidential primary. I think they are still paralyzed and watching the whole shit-show with horror (while silently praying for a miracle).
And even so, for a large proportion of the Republicans (and for that matter of Democrats) getting past the primary is where it’s at. Gerrymandering and demographics have made huge swaths of the country “safe seats”. So in 80+% of Red America, pissing off the MAGAs just means that, like Liz Cheney, you will be run out of town on a rail and some MAGAt will take the seat.
Sure, Cheney does not need the seat to live well and have people ask her opinion of things, so she can walk away. For hundreds of the other Members of Congress, state legislators, governors, local officials, this is as good as it will ever get and it’s going to hurt bad if “the Base” becomes convinced you betrayed God’s Annointed One Trump.