So we bomb Afghanistan- where does China stand in all this?

As an emerging superpower and evolving capitalist giant, China has much to gain from the eradication of Muslim terrorism. It is bordered by four Muslim countries, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, and is across the lake from the Phillipines, a nation suffering from a rebellion at the hands of a very dangerous Muslim rebel group. In addition, Xianjang Province in NW China I believe has a large Muslim population.

Now I would guess that the one thing China has going for it is an appalling lack of civil liberties, which I imagine gives it a heads up against terrorists. And of course, not every Muslim is a terrorist, but the geopolitical point has been made.

Nonetheless, the thought of us launching an attack on Afghanistan, even if it’s tiny border with China is controlled by a non-Taliban rebel group, makes me slightly uneasy. When we invaded North Korea, China got involved. When we bombed North Vietnam, well the Chinese stayed out militarily at least. What will be their reaction be now? Will they demand concessions on Taiwan in response for staying out?

FWIW, there is very tenuous speculation that Red China may make a play for Taiwan if the U.S. is sufficiently occupied with Middle Eastern military campaigns. I’m not sure what to make of that speculation.

As for Afghanistan, I don’t think China has any particular love for the Taliban, but a Chinese concern over their common border with Afghanistan is reasonable. The Chinese may simply mass troops on the border of Afghanistan to more or less stand sentry.

China has been waging it’s own war against muslim fundamentalists for years. There have been terrorist bombs exploded in Beijing and elsewhere linked to muslim extremists. Xinjiang Province is IIRC about 40% ethnic muslims. There have been small scale uprisings against Han Chinese rule numerous times over the past 50 odd years.

In June 2001, there was the latest Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the presidents of the so-called “Shanghai Five” – China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan – added a new member, Uzbekistan, and signed an agreement on fighting terrorism and extremism. The SCO has as it’s aim stability in Central Asia, and the biggest threat at this time is Afganistan.

Both China and the region have been aware of this threat and have already been active in countering the threat. It is very likely that China would not oppose some sort of US action. China is also quite skilled at gaining concessions, and would likely use this opportunity to advance their agenda. What that might be vis-a-vis Taiwan, Spratleys, restricted technology, investment in oil pipelines, etc etc is open to speculation.

[I personally find the comment that China has an appalling lack of civil liberties to be a) outdated b) extremely simplistic and c) stereotypical. But that is a whole seperate debate and we can do that elsewhere.]

Gotta say I doubt China will mount any substantive objection to a ground campaign in Afghanistan, at least in the early stages. A number of Chinese citizens died in the WTC attack, for one thing. Their leadership is pragmatic and obviously values order, and I can imagine they see a certain advantage to another power dealing with those rowdy Afghans at little or no cost to them.

OTOH, I no confidence at all that any US ground campaign will be any more of a long-term success than Russia’s bungled attempt at “pacification”. Frankly, I expect a Vietnam-type scenario to play out; there are simply too many factions among the Aghans to have much of a hope of long-term order there.

Assuming a lengthy campaign and a US occupying force that remains in country for years, I can foresee a gradually escalating risk that Chinese leaders may find the American presence an unacceptable threat.

USA sells secrets to China, China sells those secrets to UAR, which use them against us.

Hey, dunno about you guys, but they put in new gates around our local Presidio so that the public cannot get in anymore just a few days before this attack. maybe the US knew something, thus, the theory above.

More on China:

http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/09/14/news/column_wastler/

China believes they are or will be a rival to the US. But they are not so stupid as to think they can stand against the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, and everybody else.

They may not fully jump on the bus, but they sure as hell won’t stand in its way.

They’ll say the right things, drop (temporarily, at least) economic ties to pariah states if asked to, and generally act supportive. They will likely not actually contribute anything, including use of their airspace.

They will not do anything right now re: Taiwan. If they ever do it, it will be at a time and place where Europe can easily stay uninvolved (and thus keep trading with both). In the current environment, that won’t fly.

Another reason China might not get involved (at least on behalf of the Taliban) is that they can then safely observe the tactics and strategy of the last superpower, when they are in the midst of modernizing their own armed forces. How do you do X with technology Y? Watch CNN and find out!

Beyond that cynical little nugget, I simply don’t think they can afford to side with Afghanistan. They need the trade revenue with Japan, the US and Europe more than they do with Afghanistan. And aren’t they also subject to the UN boycott? Are they cheating? (I actually don’t know, so that’s not a rhetorical question, if anyone can answer it.)

People, let me reiterate, China has already been opposed to regional Muslim radicals, has been combating Muslim rebellions in Xinjiang for 50 years, and has their own problems with radical Muslim terrorism.

do a google search. here are some links
http://www.janes.com/security/regional_security/news/jid/jid000613_1_n.shtml http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/991018.taliban.html
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/news/opeds/feigenbaum_china.htm
http://www.ndcf.org/Conflict_List/World_Conflict_Count98.html

Person, let us explain, we know this. The OP mentioned it.
the question asked was

You may find the PRC’s reaction to this unprecedented event to be obvious and inevitable, but the rest of the world doesn’t.

Sorry furt and people, missed the obvious.

China has a vested interest in allowing the US to take out OBL. china has a vested interest in reducing the threat of radical Muslim fundamentalist Jihads and rebellion in their western regions.

China will allow the US to take action. The caveat is it critical that the US in this case treats China as an equal and even an ally during these operations. Much like during the Gulf War when there were a lot of countries that were not real friendly with the US, but willing to support the US at that point against Iraq. This could actually be a very big breakthrough in Sino-US relations if handled correctly by both sides. The US will have to also handle Russia in much the same manner.

As mentioned earlier in the post, not sure how China would react to a long term US presence in Afganistan if it comes to that. There may be room for a joint presence under the auspices of the UN or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

According to Bloomberg News:

Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf may visit China in the next two days to apprise Beijing of its support to the U.S. in pursuing suspects in Tuesday’s terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, Pakistan’s state-run television channel said.