Nice.
A group of about a dozen centrist Republicans …worry GOP efforts to pare back the Affordable Care Act could pour fuel on the fire.
Keep in mind the GOP only controls the house 218 to 215. So the GOP can only lose 1 vote and still pass a bill. Even if the GOP wins both of their special elections and controls the house 220 to 215, it only means the GOP can lose 2 votes and pass a bill.
A dozen republicans balking means hopefully the house blocks legislation.
That’s true. But I’m worried that pressure put on them by the leaders of the House & MAGA-world in general will cause them to cave.
Every now and then, Republicans in congress do the right thing (hence the ray of hope). But I always assume the worst.
Its possible. One thing I come back to is that in 2017 the GOP lost 21 votes while trying to repeal the ACA. They still passed the bill with 217 votes, but the GOP lost 21 votes on that bill.
There is a risk some of those house members will switch and vote yes on a revote, but still it only takes 1-2 reps to vote no to block a bill, not 22 no votes like it did in 2017.
But I’m sure its not a coincidence that the GOP lost just enough votes to still be able to pass the bill in 2017.
True, they do, there are some decent Republicans.
But I read that some of the attempts to repeal the ACA were nixed by some GOPers in states where the ACA is critical.
States that depend a lot on ACA-Florida, West Virginia, Louisiana, Ohio, Indiana,Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Texas. Most are red states, iirc,
This article is helpful-
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/24/obamacare-aca-health-insurance-republican-states
Maybe a miracle will happen this year, and the ACA gets left intact with the expanded subsidies.
BTW, check out the “Psychedelic Donut” link from Charles Gaba, the go-to guy on ACA enrollment, who basically counts up all of the insured and uninsured by category in the US. His estimate, which is important, because we want to enshrine where we stood at the end of the Biden/Trump handoff, is that we have 26.4 million uninsured out of an estimated 341 million people. That’s about 7.7% uninsured, which is as low, or probably lower than it’s ever been. Yes, some of these people have shit for insurance…The different ways that people get insurance in the US is literally insane. I call it a patchwork quilt. But I like the Psychedelic Donut better. It captures the insanity a little better.
Anyway, remember this breakout, and let’s see how Trump widens the color-less areas…
Re the “way forward” for health care, there are two stories in the latest edition of JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association), with the following amusing headlines:
“California’s Visionary Tobacco Bill - Will the FDA Follow?” (the CA bill is aimed at eliminating loopholes for selling flavored nicotine products including e-cigarettes favored by young people)
and
“National Academies Report Calls for an NIH Institute Dedicated to Women’s Health”
Gee fellas, what do you think the odds are of either of those things happening under the current administration?