So....where are they? (Fermi Paradox)

Great Debates
81

I don’t entirely disagree with you, Bad Astro, but I do have some reservations.

What if the parent-species wants to keep those life-sustaining planets viable for their own future use? If that were the case, the von Neumann machines would be primarily watchdogs, monitoring viable systems for signs of intelligence. Once intelligent activity is spotted, they get to work on the planet-killing subroutine, as you propose.

Furthermore, an intelligence-exterminating von Neumann machine should have a fail-safe device incorporated in order to account for the change of the parent race over time, and the possibility that the parent race might even forget that they sent out the exterminators. The parent race wouldn’t want to go colonizing a planet some millions of years after the von Neumanns were sent out only to be destroyed by their own creation.

That fail-safe might include a periodic signal indicating that the parent species is still extant, or a confirmation command from the nearest parent-species, or a consensus among other machines in neighboring systems, or even an evaluation of the potential of the emerging intelligence.

If emergence and subsidence of intelligence is fairly common, evidence of a colonization attempt might be the trigger, rather than mere existence. Why waste a perfectly good planet if the intelligent creatures are just as likely to waste themselves? And I myself wouldn’t want to shitcan an alien intelligence without learning something about it first.

(If our von Neumann machine is watching and understanding the evening news, it may have come to the same conclusion I have, which is that we are far more likely to destroy ourselves than we are likely to colonize another solar system.)

Reaching a decision to exterminate might take some time, but not too much time, otherwise expansion will not be contained. As I see it, the aliens need not be in much of a hurry right now.

And would one hundred years be enough time for a watchdog machine to put its planet-killing subroutine in motion? Maybe it’s already hard at work.

Wait a minute. Please change all those “shoulds” and “wouldn’ts” to “mights”. All unwarranted personification of hypothetical aliens with human motivation is the fault of the author alone.

82

Sofa King, what The Bad Astronomer and I are trying to point out is (if I may be so bold), there is no need for programming any “intelligence detection” into the hypothetical “Berserkers”, nor will their actions render any planets unusable by the parent species. Simply program the machines to bomb any suitable planet immediately upon detection without worrying about the existence of intelligence. If fact, you are almost forced into this methodology, otherwise you allow the newly intelligent species time to develop the means to protect itself. We have only been leaking radio signals for approximately 100 years, and I’ll bet within 100 more we’ll be able to detect incoming asteroids and move them from our path.

This “pre-emptive strike” would not make the planet untenable any longer than if there actually were intelligent life on the planet. Besides, it would only be for a few hundred years at most anyway, and it would likely take them some time to get here. Furthermore, if they were so interested in future colonization, why haven’t they already done it? This would seem to be a more definitive way of ensuring that no other intelligence exists.

Look at it this way – do you wait until your dog develops heartworms before giving him the preventative medicine? If I was about to move into an existing house, you can bet the exterminator would make a visit first. No need to wait until I have proof the cockroaches exist. If I thought something could possibly be in the home that would threaten the existence of the entire human race, I assure you I would be far more thorough.

83

Well, I’ll let Bad Astronomer cover his end, but I still have to disagree.

Our current theories on the development of the Earth biosphere require an initial atmosphere which is poisonous to most of the life which now inhabits it. That atmosphere has been changed by living creatures.

If humans were to begin to colonize the galaxy and at the same time scour every Earth-like planet that shows the first signs of life, they would prevent some (all?) of those planets from developing into something habitable by humans. It defeats the purpose of colonization.

So it seems to me that even if colonizing humans feared intelligence enough to destroy planets which might develop it, they must still tolerate life in primitive form. And there’s no guarantee that intelligence won’t develop on the “primitive” Earth-like planets. Even if they’re somehow seeding planets to create the biosphere they require, they must still monitor the seedlings to make sure that intelligence doesn’t spawn.

So why not just monitor all the planets, and destroy only those which begin to develop signs of intelligence? (I’m sticking to humans here because they’re the only intelligent creatures I know are considering extrasolar colonization.)

84

But dropping asteroids on a planet doesn’t eradicate the life (plant, bacteria) that actually transforms the atmosphere, it only rids it of the larger, more intelligent forms of life. Microbial life, plants, insects, etc., have demonstrated a remarkable resilience in the face of Yucatan-type asteroids, so I presume they would still sneak through. No need for monitoring, just slam it with an asteroid every 100,000 years or so.

Besides, if they were going to colonize the galaxy, which would be the only theoretical reason for them to even be concerned with the evolution of the biosphere, the odds are strongly in favor of them doing so a looong time ago.

85

I sometimes feel like my wife is from another planet, but I
guess thats another thread all together.:rolleyes:

86

I expect that any civilization advanced enough to figure out how to do this can also figure out ways to terraform a planet.

Even if they can’t, then they can simply drop an asteroid big enough to kill large land forms and not the bacteria/etc needed to terraform the planet.

I don’t like to get into too many speculative details on this beyond the basics. If I were writing an SF book I might try to pry into alien motives, but in my scientific mode I wouldn’t deign to. I can only argue from some basic principles because we don’t have anything else!

87

Okay, those are two explanations I suppose I can live (or die) with.

88

If a trillion space faring civilizations have existed in the observable universe, and each was able to expand the presence of it’s civilization at light speed, for an average duration of a million years, a random distribution would place one such civilization within 1,000,000 light years of Earth. We probably should not expect many in Ohio. I doubt that they would notice us.

If they are less common, or less rapid in their expansion, or less long lived, of course, the distance goes up. On the other hand, if they are faster, older, and more common, they probably consider us a bucolic scenic overlook, with cow lips.

Tris

“If God had intended for man to go to Mars, He would have given us more money.” ~ an unnamed NASA official ~

89

So if they are not within 1,000,000 light-years of us, that means we are alone in the galaxy, just as I hypothesis in the OP.

90

I think that the answer is obvious as to why we have not seen them.

The technology needed for long distance space travel does not/cannot exist. EVERYTHING has a limit, or a point that cannot be exceeded. Military personnel sometimes refer to the “point of no return”, which is when their vehicle has not enough fuel in their fuselage to return back to base. I imagine that even technology is the same. There is going to be a time, in the far far far future when musical instruments (modern anyway)become obsolete because every song has been written. You are simply out of variables.

There is no sentient intelligent life in outside of Earth. Any other species, however more “advanced” than we are would be located too far away from us to meet in person. (pun inteneded) It may be possible that transmissions may one day be recorded, but in no way are we going to be the space traveling federation that Star Trek makes us out to be.

It was once said (I forget by whom) that the proof that time travel does not exist is because “where are the people from the future?” I will tell you something, they are not aliens.

91

Of course what I meant was there is no sentient life in our solar system with the exception of Earth.

92

What exactly do we think will happen if contact with aliens actually occurs, where it is ‘Televised’ And everyone can see it is actually happening?

Sorry for the highjack

But seriously,global prosperity?? Breakdown?? Loss of religion?? what?? We are talking about the probability of there being life out there. Carl Sagan GRHS. actually thought the probability quite high. I see no reason humans as a whole should think otherwise. As a matter of fact, the probability that we are alone in the universe is most likely the exact opposite to the probability that we aren’t.

93

Given current evidence, I would predict a sharp increase in newspaper sales at grocery store check out isles.

Tris

“Don’t let it end this way! Tell them I said something.” Poncho Villa’s last words.

94

We humans we’re so closed minded.We think that for something to be intellingent it has to have a brain like ours. Just cause somethings very small doesn’t make it very intelligent. Also maybe they’ve been observing us from outerspace. What if they’ve seen all we do is make war on each other and hate each other. We can’t even get along with each other , let alone a whole other species. The universe is huge. Way too big for us to alone. Just cause our planet has one kind of atmosphere doesn’t mean life can’t survive in another kind that we can’t survive on. We assume cause we’re carbon based that all life has to be carbon based.

95

When our carbon based/chemical life evolves into silicon-information-based life (as it seems to be doing), we will be free from the constraints of energy and time. When we can download ourselves into intelligent computers, we will have cracked the bonds of life on this planet. Then we will be able to launch chips storing our collective intelligences into the void-they will be safe for millenia! Such “life” will be truly immortal, and we can then explore the universe at our leisure. What does it matter to a machine, if the trip to another galaxy takes 5 or 500 million years!It is all the same to a machine that is TURNED OFF! I would say that the future of mankind depends on the replacement of organic-based life with intelligent machines-oly then will we become masters of the universe!