Well, if he does, and he was aiming for Thanksgiving, he shouldn’t have used a calendar made in Canada to pick the date.
Sorry to double-post, but I want to respond to this too.
I’m too young (almost 26) to have experienced the worry of the early 80’s and feel the cold war nuclear menace. But I’m feeling a little worry now. It’s probably silly, because I know that right now this guy doesn’t have the tools to fling a nuclear bomb across the ocean and hit my continent. I’m not in any direct danger. Honestly, it’s not really the “nuclear bomb” aspect of it that worries me, it’s the context and the situation and the possibilities. I think it has to do with the fact that I can’t understand why he’d want to be building a nuke. His country isn’t really threatened, and there’s no arms race going on that he has to keep up with (well, as far as I know, but I’ll admit I’m a bit ignorant about international weapons politics). Why else but to scare people? To show off? To invade a neighboring country, to invite a full-out war?
That’s what scares me. Not that I’ll get flattened by a nuclear blast. But that the world will be dragged into another war. I’ve never lived through one, and I don’t want to live through one. Maybe it’s a little melodramatic to say so, but there is a little seed of worry in me that something very bad may have just been initiated.
I’d say yes to the first two, and no to the last one. Also add in the desire for the leadership to appeal to the people via both paranoia and shows of military strength. And that they are probably genuinely paranoid, given that there are thousands of US troops on the southern border, and Japan and SK are both US allies. And that they’re batshit crazy too.
Why else but to scare people? To show off? To invade a neighboring country, to invite a full-out war?
To flex his little muscles. Yes that means to show off. Possibly it also means he is jumping up and down until someone (MR Bush) notices.
It took America a long time and France an even longer time to realise that testing in someone elses part of the planet wasn’t ok.
It could take Kim John Il just as long to realise testing ANYWHERE isn’t a good idea.
The ball rests with everyone else. He is clearly nuts, hopefully the world won’t poke him too much.
Kim just bought himself a place at the table. The UN, China, the U.S., Japan, etc… can bluster, but I can’t see much that can be done. Regime change? Very, very unlikely. How would it be accomplished? Even if it were possible you have to consider the result. Military invasion? Who has the wherewithall to do it. Even if that were possible you have to consider that most No. Koreans have never known anything but the rule of Kim and his father, they are not going to welcome any invaders w/ flowers and cheers. Look at Iraq, and many Iraqis were well educated, well travelled and understood what was at stake, not isolated and indoctrinated like the vast majority of N.K.'s.
No, Kim may be demented, but that doesn’t mean he’s stupid. The upside is very attractive and there’s very little downside, unless of course, Bush overreacts, which, and I fervently hope I’m right here, is unlikely.
I wish I had lost my bet. That said, this is going to be an interesting couple of weeks… diplomatically speaking. Russia seems more inclined to get on board with sanctions now than I would have supposed and if there was any truth at all to friction between China and NK moving the test up so quickly, China may very well be on board too. I believe the draft resolution they’re coming up with bans all weapons sales and mandates inspections for ALL outgoing cargo from NK for WMD. That amounts to a permanent blockade of sorts and could be interpreted as an act of war if we board a NK vessel. I think perhaps the PLAN just got itself a budget increase. I suspect that very very shortly (if not already) North Korea will be the most comprehensively and continuously surveilled nation in history. Interesting times indeed.
What, they never boarded one of ours? 
When we escalate and for what reasons are entirely different than what NK might use.
Oh, brain, don’t go there…