OK, it’s four days out from landfall and just a tropical storm, but in about 18 hours Gustav is going to clip Cuba and move northward into the Gulf. Gulf waters are very warm and wind shear is negligible, indicating a rapid strengthening. This looks likely to be a Cat 3 storm, probably a Cat 4 and some are even forecasting Cat 5. Tracking forecasts this far out are notoriously weak, but take a look at the concensus (or maybe not if you’re in NO or Alabama).
You know, every time I’d see a news report talking about how all those trailers had been provided for people I thought well what a compound disaster that’s gonna be when the next big storm and accompanying tornados comes through.
My company’s started pulling non-essentail workers out of the Gulf, about 300 today, and has reissued disaster preparedness plans. I know starting Friday I’ll begin prepping the yard and house as we’re on the western edge of the cone.
I think Florida is pretty safe from Gustav. I’d be nervous if I was in Galveston, though. Western movement is more favorable than eastern at this time.
I don’t know why I said 18 hours in the OP. It should cross Cuba sometime on Saturday.
I’m the official ‘keep an eye on Gustav’ guy at our local office. We’re on several rigs in the Gulf; a couple are evacuating tomorrow, while the rest will be making decision before Thursday.
Right now, looks more likely to affect Louisiana than East Texas, but it’s early times yet. One thing for sure, I’m not going anywhere, even if it makes a direct hit on the Houston area. I’m well outside the storm surge zone, and I well remember the disastrous free-for-all that occurred on the roads around here in advance of Rita in '05.
Tell that to some VPs at work. They’re getting people a bit nervous because they keep hinting we’re going to work ahead, and for some folks, that just isn’t convenient.
All that money wasted on a missile defense system when what we really needed was some sort of hurricane/tornado destroyer. Or more evacuation transportation. Or more really secure shelters around the southern coast lines. And some bags of ice; we need some bags of ice.
I have relatives near Houston who got caught up in that evacuation mess. Unfortunately both families live in mobile homes. Staying put really isn’t an option if there’s a major hurricane headed their way.
I can’t believe that New Orleans may be in for another hit. Gulf Coast Dopers, please stay safe!
We’re trying! The track is directly over my house.
Of course the general opinion here is that the longer it stays aimed at the MS-La border the better since it Never hits where it is aiming…
Except that Katrina struck exactly where NOGAPS said.
That is the problem with the models. One of them is correct (usually). The problem is guessing which one.
Took us 14 mnths to rebuild after Katrina. And LOTS of people have made it clear that a second time is the last time. We will lose (they will move) a lot of people if it hits where Katrina did.
Isn’t it LaFourche parish where people are just now coming back? Or maybe St. Bernard? Someone was telling me about it last spring, but I don’t remember.
The once would have been enough for me. I know a lot of folks who have left the Coast for good.
St. Bernard. Less than half of the residents returned. And some still are. And those folks have STRONG roots. My neighbor came from across the lake. He had a foot of water in his house-in the second story. A lot of people moved away but never really left. A second storm would be really hard on them. Their levees failed big time-hundreds of breaches. The water that flooded N.O. East had to go through St. Bernard (in the canals). So their levees are more completely rebuilt than N.O. In N.O. all they have had time to do is repair the floodwalls, build the canal gates, and throw some dirt on top of some of the levees. Large sections of their levees withstood Katrina. But they aren’t stronger. We shall see.
Lafouche is southwest of N.O. They had trouble from Katrina but weren’t destroyed. Rita caused them as much trouble as the one-eyed lady.
I’m in Baton Rouge, we’ll, my cats included, be heading to North Louisiana this weekend. We were going to anyways, but now we will be taking a few more precautions when we leave the house. The current path puts us just to the east of the eye, the worst part of the storm, naturally. There is a high sitting in the Gulf right now that is blocking most of Louisiana all the way to Florida, if that sticks around it will send Gustav more towards Texas. Unfortunately, for us, it isn’t supposed to stay where it is for long. We won’t really know too much until this weekend, though. Eh, we’ll be prepared, hopefully everyone else in it’s path is prepared as well. Good luck to all the rest of you Gulf Coast Dopers.
P.S. We should start a club, the GCD. We can have jackets… and umbrellas… and ponchos… and chest-waders. This club is starting to sound like it isn’t much fun.
