Space Shuttle Indefinitely Grounded. What are the Implications?

NASA this afternoon announced it is grounding all future space shuttle flights, after determining that the same foam debris that destroyed Columbia remains a risk. The surprise announcement came amid growing speculation over a large chuck of foam that blew off during Tuesday’s liftoff. Over the past 30 months, NASA spent more than $1 billion trying to correct the foam problem, saying they committed their best minds and most-cutting edge resources to solving the problem. Today, it’s obvious the problem lingers.

Said shuttle program manager Bill Parsons, “Obviously we have some more work to do.”

What does this mean for the program both short term and long? After throwing everything they could at the foam problem, it persists. Can the shuttle program survive another 30-month delay? And can it survive the media/public microanalysis and questioning of every future flight, of every missing tile, as witnessed during and after Tuesday’s liftoff? As for me, I think this is a surmountable problem and yet another challenge of space flight. But damned if it didn’t take me by surprise.

Discuss.

Personally, I think it’s high time to take a look at designing a new re-usable spacefaring vehicle. The shuttle design is about 30 years old now. Surely with recent advances in technology, we can do better… can’t we?

This looks bad for the shuttle. The problem of fuel tank insulation breaking off seems to be intractable and those who put up the money, the Congress, are going to start losing patience. There are a lot of other financial demands, a big deficit and Congress will have justification because many scientists question the value of this sort of manned space flight. Some scientists question all manned space flights at this time.

I agree. NASA just announced this Wednesday evening (as reported on ABC Nightline) that, had the dislodged tile from yesterday’s lift struck the orbiter, it might have proven disastrous for the mission. Shades of Columbia. So much for the 1 in a 100 prediction given 24 hours before the flight.

I think one could argue that this is the most carefully staged mission in NASA history, yet seems eerily reminiscent of Columbia–at least to this point. Actuallt, the just-announced tile problem may be par for course for shuttle missions, but the media glare and public/political pressure really places NASA in a no-win position. I don’t see how NASA can operate under this scrutiny, given the inherent riskiness of space flight.

That’s, uh, kinda sorta what they’re presently working on.

Anyway, I watched the entire press briefing on NASA TV, and I don’t think they sugar-coated this too much. OK, maybe a little bit. But the message was: They got lucky - something fell off but it doesn’t appear to have hit the orbiter. They thought they had the foam problem figured out but they don’t. Fortunately they now have all those cameras installed all over so they can witness what’s happening more closely than they ever could before. They repeated several times: this is meant to be a test flight.

They believe one of the major pieces that fell off was a “ramp”, basically an aerodynamic hood that covers some components on the side of the tank. They had done wind tunnel tests/simulations and determined they had to be there. They’re thinking now they might be able to make those ramps out of metal instead of foam, and weld them on.

Personally I’m not all that worried just yet. There will probably be a lot more news in the next few days, and I plan to wait and see before blasting anyone.

Heh. The leading proposal for the CEV is a capsule like vehicle that resembles nothing so much as an oversized Apollo capsule.

We should be able to do better, of course; we’ve 30 years of advances in material science, computational fluids analysis, motor design, dynamic real-time controls, sensors, and Simpson’s references…but we keep stopping every four or five years and almost completely restarting. It’s silly, or rather, stupid that the Shuttle is nearly 30 years old (in design) and we are currently in the position of looking at conceptual designs for a replacement, but that’s the position we’re in. We’re not going to be able to replace it in the next couple of years, and I’m highly dubious that we’ll have a crew vehicle, a launch platform for it, and a heavy-lift booster for massy cargos in the next five years.

We could have maintained Apollo, of course, and economies of scale would have made it…well, not cheap, but at least competitive to the Shuttle. The Soviets/Russians managed to do this with the Soyuz, and as a result they are able to boost up 3 man Soyuz capsules for somewhere around $12M and Progress boats for roughly two-thirds that cost, and they’ve had better reliability and fewer personnel losses to date than the American program, even though they’re using technology nearing half a century in age. But Apollo is as gone as Ambroce Bierce, the Ares is largely based upon the Shuttle launch platform, bringing along all of its deficiencies, and we’ve nothing else on the drawing boards to date.

As it stands, we’re about as clued in as The Dude.

FWIW, the specific problem (with insulation or residue falling from the tank) is probably soluable; it’s just a matter of how much time and compromise we’re willing to put up for it. There are a vast number of other problems with the Shuttle, however, that no one has yet taken serious notice of because they haven’t resulted in a fireball…yet.

The biggest problem, though, is NASA, with their complacency, bureaucratic protectionism, and having their major logic and visionary organs routed through their accounting centers. That’s a cultural issue that needs changing regardless of what kind of spacecraft they’re flying, and fixing that is much more complex than reviewing technical specifications and changing a few design drawings.

Stranger

I totally agree, Stranger. The shuttle was a beautiful piece of work in it’s day, partially because it was designed to include technologies that were emerging or had to be developed. If we took the same forward thinking attitude today, I’m sure we could come up with an equally astounding vehicle. Sadly, it is hard to look forward with one’s head stuck up one’s ass.

Ditch the Shuttle! Build a space elevator!

~babbles on until he is led away drooling~

I still favor the Magnetic catapult, I don’t think we are quite there yet tech wise on elevator but The Cat seems within our technology. Hardest part of building it might be getting the nuclear powerplants built to run it.
Other problem with Elevator, where do we build it, would Hawaii work? most of US is to far north for stable anchor. Or can we actually make it a UN project?

Sorry, but the sugar coating continues. NASA today announced it plans to solve the problem in relatively short order–this after spending 2.5 years and $1 billion on the last fix that NASA now admits might have turned Discovery into Columbia II.
Again, NASA seems focused on funding, not safety–and certainly not innovation–and anyone who buys NASA’s latest assurances hasn’t learned from Challenger and Columbia. No one’s suggesting you flame NASA, but let’s not buy into NASA’s “test flight” spin. They have a crew aboard that orbiter and one more Columbia disaster, certainly this soon, would likely scrap the shuttle program permanently. Besides, we’re running short of orbiters.

It’s more than a little disturbing that, on the first flight of the New & Improved Shuttle, the same potentially deadly problem reared its ugly head. And while NASA may be learning from its phalanx of camaras, the learning curve appears steeper than it realizes and conservative extrapolation suggests the shuttle design may be inherently flawed. (When foam can destroy a spacecraft–and when pieces of foam falling off is par for course–you’ve got some problems.) As Stranger intimated, what the cameras don’t show are the undiscovered design problems waiting to catastrophically erupt.

Lest anyone jump in and give me the Capt. James T. Kirk “Space is dangerous; don’t be a wimp” speech, it’s becoming apparent that the shuttle design suffers serious flaws and NASA is only now beginning to realize their magnitude. Or maybe not.

Solution to foam problem: Stop using foam.

If only it were that easy. Crygenic tanks have the nasty habit of forming then shedding huge chunks of ice if they aren’t insulated. Certainly a harder insulating material could be used or a protective skin put over at least part of the foam insulation but that adds weight that directly subtracts from the shuttle’s useful payload. It may not even be that simple. Adding a significant amount of weight to the tank may require reengineering of its structure to handle launch loads. NASA’s in a tough spot.

What is the foam for, anyway? Insulating the tank so ice doesn’t form on it, only to fall off during launch?

This is VERY bad news for the Hubble Space Telescope, which now will probably be permitted to go offline and deorbit. There’s really no other feasible way to fix and/or upgrade it, than with a shuttle mission. Bummer :frowning:

NASA had practically a blank check to work on the foam problem after Columbia. They could have spent all the money on an extensive redesign (including full requalification), but instead they made a few tweaks here and there (eliminating the bipod ramp, putting a heater on the LOX feedline bellows, and the like), and spent most of the rest on (1) new sensors and monitoring methods to look for damage, (2) a very detailed risk assessment and (3) developing repair methods for any damage that might occur (this ultimately hasn’t worked out yet), and (4) planning a rescue mission in case of fatal damage.

I think this was a bad approach, because it didn’t do much to improve the design (this was my opinion before STS-114). I’m not a sociologist, so this is pure layman’s speculation, but I would guess that the reason NASA took the approach they took is because of the kinds of media criticism that were leveled after Columbia. The criticism focused on NASA’s underestimate of the risks of foam impacts, its decision not to try to photograph the damage, its inability to repair damage, and its inability to mount a rescue mission if fatal damage were found. So, they spent their money to counter those criticisms and not on a fundamental redesign.

I guess I am blaming the media to some extent. They are reporters, not engineers, so they tend to focus on exposing what went wrong and punishing the guilty, rather than on fixing the problem. You can argue that NASA shouldn’t listen to the media, but that’s wishful thinking. NASA has to please its paymasters in Congress and the White House, who ultimately have to win votes from people who get their opinions from the media.

On preview I see some questions on whether the foam could be eliminated entirely. Externally bonded insulation has been a problem since the earliest days of spaceflight - the damned stuff just will not stay stuck. The way to do it is to build a two-layer tank with the insulation in between the layers. This obviously requires a complete redesign and requalification of the tank and would make a heavier tank, which would reduce the payload capability of the system. But with a parallel stack, loose insulation is so dangerous, and has been proven dangerous, that you just have to take the performance penalty.

The insulation protectes the cold tank from heat of launching which would cause more stress and possible failure. AFAIK most previous liquid fuel rockets used internal insulation.

Well, the point is that the foam isn’t supposed to fall off. Handling cryogenic fuels (or rather, in this case, the oxydizer) is always a problem, from coping with thermal stresses and expansion to dealing with condensation and preventing the fluid from getting too hot. Engineering, espeically something as complex as a spacecraft, is an endless game of compromises and tradeoffs.

Hypergolic fuels are even more fun–Dimethyl hydrazine has been the bane of Jupiter-C rocket designers and technicians

It seems NASA can’t decide
can’t decide what to do with Hubble…so they’re going to do nothing.

It’s a shame, because with modest upgrades and refurbishment, Hubble could continue to provide good scientific data for another seven or eight years. But getting up there to make the refurbs may be more costly and risky than deemed worthwhile. When Colubmia was still intact it would have been a slam-dunk decision, because as she wasn’t able to reach the ISS (the inclination of the orbit is such that Columbia, with a lower thrust and greater gross weight couldn’t reach the ISS) a Hubble servicing mission wouldn’t have significantly interfered with commitments to the ISS. Now that we’re down to three Orbiters with an apparent minimum service time of about 10 months each, we probably can’t spare a Shuttle launch for Hubble. A purely robotic mission is still (nominally) an option, but would require crash development of a system to perform the servicing, which would then be disposable (we wouldn’t be able to bring it back down intact). Budgetwise, this just isn’t an option for NASA.

So, yeah…this sucks for Hubble.

Stranger

Actually the Shuttle was kind of a political boondoggle and technical mismarvel before it was even born. There are some good technologies in it–the lifting body concept, the Shuttle Main Engines (the most powerful for their size in the world), et cetera–but also a lot of obsolescence (the original control and guidance systems used Apollo-era transistor computers with iron-core memory, which are less powerful than a 1977 TRS-80), and tied into what are, in retrospect, poor design choices (the Thiokol SRBs, the delicate ceramic “foam” tiles, et cetera.) It became the single, do-all and be-all compromise that it is because of the politics surrounding it. The O’Neillian space advocates wanted a SSTO (single stage to orbit) craft, Congress wanted something cheaper and and reusable as compared to Apollo, NASA needed a dedicated mission, and aerospace contractors (and their Congressional patrons who were concerned about bringing and keeping jobs within their districts) wanted a piece of the pie.

As a result, the Shuttle was born, in which virtually every major contractor had a feeding tube and every possible capability was built in, but it doesn’t do any particular mission very well. It isn’t SSTO, it isn’t cheap (costs are on par or exceeding those of Apollo), it isn’t reusable, and it doesn’t really have a mission, other than supporting the ISS. In fact, the only thing it really does well is…keep aerospace contractors in cashflow.

The smart thing to do in the early Seventies would have been to start a Shuttle-type test and development program, similar to the X programs for human transport and maintain an expanded Apollo and Apollo Applications program for heavy lift capability and trans-Lunar missions, while working on technological maturity and cost reduction on the Saturn family of rockets. In retrospect this is what happened with the Soyuz, which has turned out very nicely for the Russians. By not only investing heavily in the Shuttle but also deliberately destroying Apollo/Saturn hardware and tooling (and even a lot of the documentation) .

Hindsight is, of course, much clearer than staring into the winds of the future, but the debate over the Shuttle’s safety, efficiency, and performance began long before things started burning through and falling off of it. That we’ve inextractibly tied the American space program into such a folly is our lament and our Achilles heel.

An electromagnetic catapult is one of those things that sounds simple in concept but fiendishly difficult in the complexity of its details and necessary technology development. For instance, you have to build it powerful enough not only to launch a payload at orbital speed, but with additional speed to overcome aerodynamic drag…which increases with speed and results in aerodynamic heating. You would be dealing with the same problems on launch as most vehicles see at re-entry, and this at near-sea-level pressures. Ideally you’d built it going up the tallest mountain you can, so as to both reduce atmospheric pressure and to gain as much powered distance as possible to reduce induced acceleration loads, but structurally mountains tend to be unstable and covered with snow and ice to boot. Powering such a thing is not trivial, either; it’s not as if you can just flick a switch and dial up the rheostat; you need not only a tremendous amount of energy but you need it quickly, and at some point your ability to throughput enough energy without having your transmission system evaporate becomes prohibitive. (In other words, you are going to need some very large, very efficient superconductors.) And then you are going to generate ubermassive magnetic fields, likely strong enough to interfere with living organisms and nearby electromagnetic systems.

The engineering difficulties are sufficient to make an Orion rocket seem trivial by comparison. A magnetic catapult is highly speculative at this point.

Stranger

Has NASA announced a 30 month delay? This may just be PR to make it sound like NASA considers this a serious issue.

Whether the delay is 30-month or “indefinite” it is a PR nightmare to have to announce it the day after they were patting themselves on the back for a perfect launch.