My take on it is this: there are certain facts that have to be stated first
- The bombings were obviously timed to affect the outcome of the election
- The bombings DID affect the outcome from a PP victory to a PSOE victory
- 90 percent of Spaniards were opposed to the Iraq war.
Here are some other points that I believe to be true:
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The Iraq war is unique in that it stirs up AQ hatred while offering no real gains in the war against terror in stabalizing Iraq. Honestly we all knew that Saddam had no AQ ties before. AQ is defenitley in Iraq now. We have very little to gain, personally, by winning the war in Iraq. Even more so for spaniards
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The PP thought if the terror attacks were caused by ETA then it would have been more advantageous for them. The PP continued to say that ETA was responsible although we now know that it is almost certainly AQ.
Okay I am a little upset about the outcome of the election. I didn’t really like Aznar too much, and I didn’t really think that Spain ought to be fighting in Iraq (nor did I think the US should, but thats different). But it was obviously transparent, even more so than Blair, IMHO.
It is sad that the attack was obviously designed to change the election outcome and it succeeded. However, what were the options at the end? The Spaniards could choose between a lying PP who said that ETA was responsible and showed no signs of taking responsibilty stating that it could be because of their actions that it occured. They showed no signs of contemplating their previous actions and their affect on terrorism. The PSOE was against the war, and would have probably withdrawn the troops from Iraq anyway. Certainly sooner than the PP would have.
Most of the Spaniards I talk to don’t even know themselves what to think about it. But if I had a chance to vote in Spain I probably would have voted for PSOE as well, because they seemed to be the only ones who weren’t in denial of what happened and what caused it.
So in my opinion, the Spaniards didn’t vote for withdrawal in Iraq, so much as they voted for a sober assesment of why they were attacked and what they should do about it. The truth? Al Queda attacked Spain because they participated in the Iraq war, and they wanted to show that they could influence the outcome of elections. So in essence AQ won? Not exactly.
The question is, what is the logic behind their reasoning?
The truth is that it is a very complicated issue and nobody totally understands what they plan on doing in the future. The demonstrations on Saturday weren’t against the Governments participation in Iraq but against the government’s coverup trying to blame ETA.
It is very scary, however. Zapatero mentions all the right reasons for pulling out of Iraq and didn’t say that its because of the terrorists. He does say that he wants to have a government that will govern for all Spaniards, not just those that voted for him. He is implicitly stating that he would never take Spain to war with 90 percent of the country against him. I suppose what they Spanish have chosen is to have a leader that won’t get them into anything so stupid in the future. I don’t think that they believe that pulling out of Iraq will solve any future problems of terrorism. But I think that a vote for the PSOE was taken as a vote not to take matters of Foreign Relations lightly without accepting the consequences (like terrorist attacks)
But calling Spaniards pussies because they let a terrorist attack convince them to pull out of Iraq? Thats only assuming that fighting in Iraq is actually doing anything to prevent terrorism, which it most likely isn’t. Although its sad to see the Spaniards playing into the terrorists hands, what is the alternative? Doubling efforts in Iraq to prevent another terror attack in Madrid would be the height of stupidity. I will hold my judgement on the Spaniards until we see what happens.
The truth is that its bad enough that there was a terrorist attack before the election. Zapatero needs to come clean with the public and state the obvious. “We were against Iraq, and that’s probably why we were attacked, we are withdrawing from Iraq.” He makes part of the connection (You voted me in to get us out of Iraq) but he lets the connection between the Iraq war and the bombings stay implicit.
My advice to Zapatero and all Spaniards would be to have a serious rethinking about the problem of terrorism and what can be done to fight it. Obviously I think that the people who need this the most are Americans. Obviously fighting a war in Iraq isn’t going to help it at all, but maybe they can start a dialogue that failed states need to be dealt with somehow. Not as in militarily FFS, but as in diplomatically. There needs to be more of a global mandate to get rid of all of the things that breed terrorism. Its not invading these countries, but should probably be something else.
Well this is just my impression.