I’d like to see what 'dopers think about the future of MMO’s in the next decade. Where do you think they will go from here? How will they make money? Will they eventually connect to our portable devices (cell phones, PDA’s, etc)? What will we be playing in 2020?
-XT
I think D&D type fantasy games will lose considerable market share to other genres. At the moment, there’s fantasy, super hero and space games on the market. I think we may see some other things, maybe cowboy, film noir, sports, or something with markedly reduced emphasis on combat.
Think the bulk of the money will continue to come from monthly subscriptions. It’s a proven model.
Well, there are several models. There is the monthly subscription model which definitely seems popular. Then there are games like Guild Wars that are free to play, but that release periodic ‘expansions’ and DLC that cost. And there are some advertising MMO’s that are ‘free’ to play, but that you can pay for in game items and such.
Myself, I agree that monthly subscriptions are probably going to continue, but I really like the idea of DLC that you can pay extra for in game effects. One thing that I’d like to see is the ability to use mobile devices to effect in game actions (such as buying stuff at the auction house in a game like WoW), or giving you alerts and such…maybe even guild chat with players in game for things like raids and such. Oh, you can simulate a lot of this stuff now, but it’s not fully integrated with the game, and I think that eventually it will be.
What I’d love to see is an MMO that would play out something like Total War, but with a persistent world going through history. One could join a world in a given time period and basically play through, building ones empire, researching technology, fighting battles, etc.
-XT
MMOs will need to innovate like crazy, and I think the current crop of developers are realizing that. You can’t make a standard fantasy game like EQ or WoW any more, because you simply can’t kill WoW. That’s just a fact that people are starting to accept after all the attempted WoW-killers failed miserably. There’s no point in making a game like WoW because your playerbase probably already plays it and they’re happy where they are.
This is a good thing, I think. WoW does the standard fantasy RPG and does it very well, but it isn’t the be-all and end-all of MMOs. There is absolutely room to expand if developers can stop trying to fly too near the sun, and we’re starting to see bits and pieces of that in the new crop of games.
Personally, I think moving toward squad-based tactical FPS PVP is a very solid direction. APB looks exceptional and I expect very good things from it. It’s a modern-day Cops versus Robbers with constant gang warfare. Global Agenda has a heavy focus on squad tactics and limited intense engagements that influence a more widescale strategic campaign. Dust 514 is a strong innovation, a ground-based squad FPS that directly interacts with and influences the already popular space-based EVE Online.
And then there’s my favorite MMO of all time, Planetside. It rose and fell way before its time, and Sony never gave it the love it deserved. It’s still going, but global warfare needs a lot of players to truly make it interesting. Sony is planning on a Planetside 2, but I simply don’t trust SOE at all. I think APB will be a better spiritual successor to Planetside.
That all covers a wide area that WoW’s PVP offerings simply can’t compete with. Then, of course, there’s the more conventional MMORPGs that occupy different genres. City of Heroes and Champions Online are strong and healthy superhero games with a focus on customization and personalization that WoW severely lacks. Star Trek Online looks like it may be a solid offering with no other competitors in its space aside from EVE Online, but even then EVE is simply a unique beast that doesn’t quite compete with any other MMO out there. LEGO Universe just recently put out its trailer, and it looks like it will have a strong appeal to adults and kids alike.
As for revenue models, we’re starting to see exploration in that area too. Guild Wars’ model has been good for it, but it’s remained a pretty small-scale game out of necessity. DDO’s freemium model is chancy, but they seem to be thriving right now. Global Agenda plans to make a portion of its game free to play, with access to the larger world campaign contingent on a subscription. Still, I think standard subscription is the most solid and tested model, and most games would be wise to stick with it.
I have a buddy working on something like that now. Hope he makes it huge, then hires me to do lots of nothing for a huge salary.
My question is what does making a game an MMO even add to an RTS or FPS?
Take planetside, for example. It was a decent enough game but the MMO aspect seemed pointless. You’d log out for the night, then when you logged in the next day the whole map was totally different then how you left it anyway - how’s that different from just playing random maps in battlefield or call of duty (for no monthly fee)?
Then you have to consider the downsides, i.e. uneven playing field (unless you are the sort who likes to win because you have double the people on your team or because you do triple damage thanks to your +5 machine gun of the eagle), spread out population (can’t just hop in a server and start playing) and the requirement to ‘grind’ exp to unlock various things. I guess call of duty and battlefield do that to a degree, but due to not having monthly fees there is no reason not to make the unlocks quick so everyone can get them in a reasonable amount of time and they don’t really limit you so much (for example in planetside you needed special certifications to drive tanks or planes).
I’m just not seeing an upside, and certainly not one that makes it worth dropping $15 a month on top of the $50 to buy the game.
Character persistence, not world persistence is really the biggest draw of MMOs.
But what does character persistence add to a FPS/RTS?
Like I said, unless you are the sort of person who just likes to win because he’s played longer and thus does triple damage, then what’s the upside? What is persistent about your character, if not advantages over other people and/or unlockable things you have to grind for instead of just having (like the ability to drive a tank or fly a plane).
MMOs hard code the whole “the more you play the better you are” thing instead of leaving it up to the player to actually train properly, where there is only a correlation between time and ability.
Well, for Planetside, you could do everything almost as soon as you got out of the gate. The problem was that you couldn’t do it all at once. If you wanted to fly aircraft, you could totally do that immediately. You just couldn’t equip heavy infantry armor or weaponry as well. Levels added versatility, not power (except in the sense that a tank driver could hop out and immediately kick ass on foot too).
Such gates also allow for more complicated weaponry or vehicles to be added in. If something isn’t obtainable until level 10 or whatever, you can ensure that the player will have had to have logged a minimum number of hours of gametime and can be considered at least minimally competent to use it.
In the case of planetside it was versatility.
…which most players of more organized FPS games should appreciate. There’s plenty of games where having a newbie player get behind the wheel of your team’s valuable heavy vehicle can wind up setting the team farther behind than enemy action would, and these are very simple vehicles compared to what even a fluffy tank sim lite game might present. You can’t drop potent things into multiplayer without putting limits on their use, and once you limit them, you start needing to discriminate in who gets to use them, and how much.
Might I point out, as an aside, that the LEGO universe trailer made my jaw drop? I won’t say it looks complex, or an MMO with a great combat system, or anything like that… It just looks damn fun to play!
>Will they eventually connect to our portable devices (cell phones, PDA’s, etc)?
There’s a bunch for the iphone already. Theyre not fantasy 3D games, but have network connectivity, compete with players, etc.
I imagine MMO changes will be the same changes we see in the video game industry. Probably things like Natal and 3D will be supported. Better physics support.
The MMORPG probably will remain what it is. They really havent changed since the 1990s MUDs. Same formula (skinner box), just better eyecandy.
Primarily because it’s a winning formula. There have been attempts to eliminate the grind aspect of RPGs, and what comes out is that people want the treadmill grind, the only quibble is to what degree. It provides things to do, stratifies players for easy epeen comparisons, it gives you a near constant goal (just one more level and I’ll have Fireball rank 8! I got Fireball, now it’s just five more levels to Meteor Storm!), and it’s practice for the endgame if any exists.
Some games have tried to eliminate it as best as they can by making the grind itself the game, rather than a means to an end, but it’s always there. City of Heroes, I think, has come closest to eliminating the grind; due to the versatility in the sidekick/mentoring system and the Flashback system, you’re able to experience almost all of the content at almost any level. But even then, the grind exists in that you still need to level up to earn more powers and access some gated content. I guarantee you, though, if they removed the levels and gave everyone immediate access to all the powers they normally get at max level, the game would die within a year.
Perhaps the inability to survive without the grind is a weakness in the RPG model, but it seems quite popular otherwise.
The only game that managed to eliminate the “grind” for me was Shadowbane. The reason for it is because there was diminishing returns for leveling up. The max level was 75 but a character of level 50 (something you could do in a week) was about 90% as powerful as a level 75 character and a few level 30s could put up a decent fight against a max character. Compare that to every other game were max level is were everything happens so everything up to that is simply something to get through before the real game can begin.
LotRO does a good job of making me not -feel- like I’m grinding, because the quests and the world are engaging enough that I’ll generally participate -without- worrying about how much XP it’s going to get me.
The only time it felt like grinding was when I was trying to catch up to a friend who was a bunch of levels ahead of me, so I had to maximize levelling if I wanted to play with him in the foreseeable future. That kinda sucked.
In my experience, time played has very, very little to do with skill.
If there was some sort of test to see if you should be allowed to use it such the sniper qualification from america’s army (if they still do that, I haven’t played that in years) that would maybe be different.
IMO the only game that got rid of the grind was Guild Wars. By the time you did all the quests/missions you were near or at the max cap and ready for endgame PvP… and if you didn’t like that you could just start a PvP only guy at max cap with pretty good items and a decent skill selection unlocked. For those that liked the grind, you could grind away for rare drop armor/weapons which had basically equal stats but looked special, and playing PvP matches gave you points to unlock new skills. There is also no monthly fee on top of that.
I wish the future of MMOs was games like Guild Wars, but considering many many people didn’t even consider it a ‘real’ MMO I don’t think it will be.