Speculation About How Republicans Will Run the 2028 Election

Politics & Elections
1

Continuing the discussion from Is there any non-nutty way that Republicans could even try to claim that Trump can run again?:

Which is why I think all this concern and speculation about reelecting Trump is just a ploy to divert us from what Republican Powers That Be, including this SCOTUS, really have planned.

Trump has been a very effective and fortuitous office holder for the ugliness the GOP has had planned for more than 50 years. They’ve been agreeable to keeping him as their figure head so long as they were accomplishing their larger goals. But they don’t love him. And the SCOTUS doesn’t love him. He’s just been a wonderfully useful distraction while the real power brokers behind the scenes – Leonard Leo, e.g. – were pursuing their larger agendas. They’ve been horridly successful, and they’re not going to let up on the gas now.

Trump can’t win in 2028, even assuming there was some creative way of putting him on the ballot. Too old, half dead, too unpopular, too insane. Republicans know this.

They don’t have a better option at this point than Vance. But they also know Vance doesn’t have the Trump special sauce, so they’ll have to get a running start with their propaganda machines and voter suppression efforts. A two-year head start should do it.

I’m not the first to posit the following approach, but this is a thread to discuss it exclusively.

No one is more eager to get past the mid-term elections than Republicans. They will get rid of Trump and get Vance into office. Impeachment, 25th Amendment, doesn’t matter. They’ll make Trump history. SCOTUS will help if they must. By waiting till past the mid-terms, Vance can serve out the balance of Trump’s term and still be eligible for 2 full terms of his own, giving us 10 interminable years of Vance and Republican rule. But if it looks like Democrats will take over the House with the 2026 elections, they’ll get rid of Trump shortly before the switch, while they still have the votes to do it. Forfeiting 4 years of a 10-year rule is acceptable in exchange for Republican dominion for 6. And Vance can run as an incumbent, easily edging out any competition.

Vance has proved himself a worthy puppet. He does what he’s told, no more and no less, in exchange for being a powerful figurehead.

Once they have Vance in place for 2026/2027, he can control elections same as Trump has, leaning on balky purple state elections bosses, pursuing voter suppression efforts, etc. Fox et. al will do their part. Meta will do its part. X will do its part. Russia will do its part. Properly propagandized, wavering Republicans will come back to the fold for the younger, more energetic option. This will allow those voters to continue to vote Republican and still gently repudiate Trump, ensuring Vance wins.

Trump will howl, but the instant Republicans (including SCOTUS) unite against a new standard bearer, it won’t matter. His popularity is over. Time for a new regime – one that can get elected, with help.

Get ready for a long, long term of President Vance easily controlled by the true power brokers. In my opinion, this is what we’re actually in for.

2

Bold of you to assume Vance is capable of getting elected once, let alone twice.

3

Oh, he can’t, not without the same kind of help Trump had. Neither of them were/are electable. But propaganda can overcome so, so much. As we’ve already seen.

4

I think 2026 will give us a good idea of what they will try to pull. Any tactics that succeed then will be strongly ramped up in 2028. I expect results in blue states not to the liking of the MAGA party bosses will be disputed in court and members won’t be sworn in the House if Little Mike says so.

I also anticipate a strong Border Patrol or ICE presence outside voting places in purple states, particularly in swing districts. Probably something similar in swing (purple) districts in red states. Just as I have said the MAGAts will fight tooth and nail against any red seats flipping blue in 2026 I expect even more effort in 2028. One thing about these people, they learn from their mistakes and adjust strategy, unlike the Democrats, hence all the talk about running past losers and focusing on DJT rather than policy.

5

I don’t think the House Minority Leader gets to decide who gets sworn in.

6

Exactly. They’ll continue to employ successful voter suppression tactics in every way possible. Vance is not a viable candidate in a “normal” election. But we haven’t had one of those since 2012. And we continually underestimate the effectiveness of the tactics used by Republicans and their helpers, both inside and outside of the country.

7

I doubt it, they are too afraid of MAGA. Both at the polls, and of MAGA violence. If Trump is still alive, he’ll be the Republican candidate even if he’s basically comatose and his “advisors” have to pretend they are getting orders from him.

As for how they’ll run it, I expect at best maximum voter suppression and intimidation, and probably significant violence. Both from MAGA and from law enforcement.

8

I think that’s been true until more recently. Trump’s grip on his base loosens every month, bit by bit. There will come a point where Republicans have to choose between making a real effort to “win” in 2028 and supporting the loser. I think that’s when they’ll collectively jump.

9

Trump is at 36% approval with a 60% disapproval rating. He’s no longer the unquestionable avatar of the volk.

10

What’s his approval rating amongst the folks who own a MAGA baseball cap? Who consider themselves allies of the Proud Boyz?

11

Scroll down the page of that poll. He’s still at 84% for the Republicans, which is what MAGA are.

12

Probably pretty high, but that peaked at about 20% of the voting population. And has dipped slightly of late.

Note that it’s not a question of how approving a person is who wears the cap. The question is how many people are keeping that cap on.

Incorrect, read my cite.

13

Which is down from 93% two months ago, and the lowest of his entire presidency save for immediately after 1/6.

14

I generally agree w the thrust of the OP. But I don’t understand this bit.

If the Rs win the House in 2026, then after the new House is seated the Rs can impeach or 25th trump regardless of what the Ds want.

If the Ds win the House in 2026, then after the new House is seated the Ds can impeach or 25th trump regardless of what the Rs want.

If indeed the Rs want to get rid of trump before or after the 2026 midterms, they won’t have any problem enlisting substantially the entire D party in that effort at any time.

My bottom line: I don’t understand the contingency you’re trying to make here. Maybe you’re right, maybe you’re not. I just don’t get the point.

15

Maybe.

If we’re positing voter suppression, disappearing ballot boxes, self-appointed vigilante goons at polling places, etc., all of that depends far more on the vehemence of the red-hat brigade, not their numbers. Compared to the headcount in the USA, it takes very, very, very few hard core agitators to infiltrate electoral boards, to parade around in camo outside polling places, put threatening content out on social media, etc.

It’s an inherently anti-democratic (small d) movement. As such it doesn’t rely on numbers for its power. It relies on vehemence and enthusiasm.

16

You’re correct. I hadn’t thought it through completely. Thanks for the help! Republicans can, indeed, get rid of Trump in the time that will allow 10 years of a Vance regime, irrespective of if they do it before or after the mid-terms. Meaning they will wait until after.

17

I would say that declining numbers is evidence of a lack of enthusiasm. They tend to go hand-in-hand. While it’s possible they are experiencing a purge of sorts, where they’re shedding the casual supporters while the remaining ones are going crazier, I don’t know that there’s evidence of that occurring (yet).

Again, not saying you’re wrong, it’s certainly possible.

18

Johnson refused to seat Adelita Grijalva of AZ for seven weeks. He will refuse to seat enough Democrats so the GOP keeps the majority.

So he won’t be the Minority Leader in this instance. If MAGA alleges fraud they can delay for even longer without much difficulty and Johnson will be able to cling to the Speakership.

19

That’s not how it works. The office of Speaker is vacated at the end of each Congress. When the new House convenes in 2027, they elect a Speaker and swear them in, then the Speaker swears in the other members.

The Democratic majority of the incoming House will elect Jeffries Speaker and Moses Mike can go back to being a backbencher of no consequence.

20

You assume there will be a majority of Democrats present to be sworn in. These people will not give up their majority easily and I fully expect they will prevent GOP seats from being flipped to D, enough to keep them in the majority.