The problem for the Republicans is that the only way they benefit from a Trump impeachment is if they do it. They need to rebrand themselves as the anti-Trump party. So the Republicans cannot afford to let the Democrats be the ones who impeach Trump. And the 2026 elections might change the balance in Congress.
So right now the Republicans are calculating. If they feel they’re going to be able to steal enough votes in 2026 to stay in power, they’ll let Trump stick around until 2028, when they can impeach him early in the year in order to get the full benefit by November. But if things are looking bad in 2026, Operation Dump Trump gets moved up.
The same is true if Trump’s physical and mental health continues to decline. The Republicans won’t benefit if Trump dies or is declared mentally incompetent. The only hope the Republicans have is if they impeach Trump. So they’ll move up the plan if it looks like Trump isn’t going to last until 2028.
Very much so, again, all I had was minor quibbles, thus the alternate scenario and my admission to lacking the internal information that may inform the GOP’s future calculus. It seems to me we’re all looking at the same variables, just not sure the current values today as opposed to say 6 months ago, and speculating what they’ll be in 2026/2028.
I think that’s better suited to the parent thread, if by Trump you assume the actual person, rather than the Republicans in general. But you’re not wrong, for something closer to home for our poster Frodo, it does work, as we say in Argentina.
“The loans to bail out your economy that we just gave? If Millei loses, they’re gone, capeesh?”</mafia capo>
And lo and behold, despite major protests and momentum due to the economic issues he created, his team suddenly was much more successful right after that announcement.
So yeah, I can see the GOP playing (more!) with the “You have some nice programs to feed/educate/protect your people, would be very bad if something were to happen to them…”.
The army would have the support of 30% of the country - the MAGAs. Ask the Tutsi in Rwanda how many of them were killed by the army versus how many by violent Hutu militias.
This will be the MAGA plan; Get neighbors to turn on each other, create chaos (particularly in the cities in “purple” states). Depress that city vote by making the D voters afraid to leave the house on voting day, and they’ll win the election.
So are the people going to be too enamored with fast food and Netflix to do anything, or are they gonna be roaming the streets with machetes to purge the non-believers? You can’t have it both ways.
ISTM your gotcha quote of him from the other thread is about the Ds (AKA “good Germans”) sitting on their hands while the MAGAs slide us into Fascism, while the quote from a few posts up is about the MAGAs being highly motivated to be the army’s (or the state-run national guard’s) violent uncontrolled auxiliaries.
Those two ideas are not in opposition. Not at all.
Sure I can. The MAGAts are charged up with hate and lying rhetoric. Those Damn Democrats are going to turn everyone trans! They are literal demons! PURGE THE DEMONS!
Meanwhile, your regular D voter is indeed going to hunker down and hope to God this all blows over. They are reasonable people who are not geared up by hate and are just praying for some kind of normalcy. This kind of thing has played out in history over and over again, where a hate-fueled mob is used by the powerful to act as muscle.
So in this scenario, the magas are roaming the streets to kill anyone who looks like they might vote Democrat and making sure liberals are too afraid to leave their house, while those liberals go on as if nothing is wrong and are lining up at McDonald’s for the new Stranger Things meal?
I don’t buy the idea that conservatives are the only people in this country with agency.
You don’t seem to be grasping the picture here. The MAGAts are fueled by hate. This is powerful. They only need to be threatening for a few days/a week at most, around election time. Yes, they will be “roaming the streets”. They don’t even have to kill (many) people. Just the threat will be enough to keep the normal D voter away from the polls. No they won’t be heading to Mickey D’s . They’ll be staying at home, watching the news of the mobs (news that will be amplified by the lovely folks who have a virtual monopoly on the news and social media platforms.
Sure the D voters in the city have agency. Many of them will be too terrified to use it.
So how come that didn’t happen in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, or last month?
And how would that work in states such as mine where there are no “polling places” to keep people away from because everyone already mailed in their ballot two weeks ago?
You’ve gone silent after I posted this, which I think gets at the crux of the matter. Trump and his cronies have had ample opportunities to “cancel the election” or “declare martial law” or inspire armed death squads to march around and scare people out of voting. Why hasn’t it happened? We’ve seen what it looks like when Trump tries to invalidate an election - he got 1500 people to commit vandalism and hatched a cockamamie scheme involving fake electors that was doomed to fail because they didn’t have the votes, and the loophole which even made it possible to begin with has since been closed. That’s the BEST they were capable of coming up with.
All of these nightmare scenarios require Trump and his cronies to develop within the next three years a level of purpose, competence, and coordination that they haven’t displayed at any point in the last ten, and they assume that Trump is still the crafty fox he was eight years ago, and not the man we see today who falls asleep during media ops, forgets things he said a few days ago and yells at people when they remind him about it, openly uses slurs he used to be smart enough to vehemently deny using, rarely leaves the White House except to golf, and when he does speak to the public he’s barely coherent and says things like “Under the China policy every child receives 37 pencils” or “Let’s go to batteries where you go to the Congo and get them from China”. And this right now is THE BEST THAT HE WILL EVER BE AGAIN. The good days are going to become fewer and fewer and the bad days more and more frequent, and not even Stephen Miller can prop him up when his approval rating is in the mid-30s and isn’t likely to rebound. The idea that this dotard is going to inspire people to take up arms for him en masse simply doesn’t make sense.
The adoption of the Thirteenth, Fourteenth, and Fifteenth Amendments to the Constitution extended civil and legal protections to former slaves and prohibited states from disenfranchising voters “on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.” Forces in some states were at work, however, to deny black citizens their legal rights. Members of the Ku Klux Klan, for example, terrorized black citizens for exercising their right to vote, running for public office, and serving on juries.
I should have specified national election results.Republicans did pretty well nationally when Blacks could not vote.
The American South illustrate how extreme and complete the voter suppression has to be to be effective. In general, I believe the MAGA folks are more fearful than we are. So just killing a few of us would not work, since they might be more scared to go to the polling places than we are.
Remember that, as Susie Wiles says, Trumpers are low propensity voters: A few friendly fire deaths, caused by pro-MAGA rioters, will be enough to keep a lot of them away from the polls.
I think the problem starts after the polling place results are reported. Vance will get orders similar to what Pence got. But now the VP is more of a MAGA loyalist. Also law enforcement and the military now has pro-Trump hand-picked leadership