This is what I’m hoping happens.
Another possibility: An enlarged bombing campaign but not to apocalyptic levels, followed by another threat if the Strait is not open in $days, lather rinse repeat.
Which they got.
Suspicious speculation on my part: the Administration knew something like this was coming and decided to act extra berserk in the lead-in so it would look like everyone panicked over mere bluster when nothing happened. And someone in the market knew something was up.
Trump lacks the self control to do anything like that. This is someone who is suffering from visible dementia, keep in mind; he’s not capable of being clever, even in the sort of “low cunning” ways he was in the past.
You’re correct. However his handlers certainly have the ability to get their brokers on speed dial, and could easily maneuver him into spewing whatever they whisper in his ear. Think Grima Wormtongue with an investment account.
If what we have heard about this deal so far is actually correct, isn’t this much more lucrative for Iran than the JCPOA was? No more sanctions, no more UN resolutions, no limits on enrichment… sounds like they’ll be able to build that nuke in no time once they get cleaned up courtesy of the money the US is now going to give them. Pallets of cash on a C130 are nothing compared to undisputed control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Yes; people have been pointing out that on the face of things this is effectively a major victory for Iran.
Here’s a partial list of the ten point plan. I’m having a hard time picturing that chucklehead agreeing, and following through with any of it.,
I picture some time after a deal is made and El Gordo has extorted, stolen and ruined shit, Kegsbreath will claim that during the ceasefire IRCG rebuilt their nukes, and we’ll start this all over again.
If you’re referring to Iran’s “ten point plan”, it’s delusional nonsense. If they want to make demands like that, there’s nothing to discuss and this ceasefire will end when Trump’s done manipulating the markets.
…or maybe Trump will just agree to it because he’s done with this catastrophically stupid war? Is it really that outlandish to you that Trump might declare victory and leave?
ITSM that it’s “delusional nonsense” to presume that Trump and Hegseth are running this war with any coherent mission, strategy, or plan. And the facts have borne this out.
It is neither “delusional nonsense” nor it will be accepted by Trump and co, it’s just a starting maximalist position to begin negotiations with.
At some point the country on the other side of the negotiating table is going to use this to their advantage. Once someone or other knows its time to bet on an agreement you can demand the moon. Demand a tollbooth on the strait and see what happens.
If Trump is willing to screw his financial buddies it doesn’t cost you a whole lot to wait out the speculation and then get serious but if he isn’t he’s just handling you massive amounts of leverage - its like he’s bribing himself on behalf of his enemies.
So now it seems that Trump thinks the US should JOIN Iran in extorting tankers
So my question is, if we’re pirates now, will the Navy get new hats?
It’s beyond obvious that Frodo is correct:
And to add, negotiations were actually underway when Trump began this horrendous war by attacking Iran. So absolutely nothing has been gained, with the exception of many dead people, blown up stuff and lots of profit to Trump insiders.
I expect Iran’s ten point plan was for the consumption of everyone but Trump, since they know perfectly well he’s not an honest or reasonable negotiator (to put it mildly). Trump even nominally agreeing to that makes them look strong and Trump look weak, which is more than they are likely to get out of any actual “deal” with him.
Because he is clearly a sociopath who is spiraling out of control and has a huge nuclear arsenal at his disposal.
ETA: I also refuse to normalize the president casually threatening genocide and hold him and his supporters accountable.
Somewhere within the various fast moving and regularly evolving threads on this crisis somebody asked about the impact of the proposed USD2mil toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. A response was that a bulk oil tanker carries 1 million barrels. I have searched and I can’t find those posts. So I could just keep schtoom but this being The Dope, I will post some firmer estimates here.
The bulk vessels classification, Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), carry roughly 2 million barrels, while Ultra-Large Crude Carriers (ULCCs) can carry over 3 million.
The typical fuel used for container and bulk vessels is known as bunker fuel. It’s the residual material of processing heavy crude left over from the distillation and cracking. It’s actually a gelatinous solid. A VLCC would burn around 300mt per day when at cruising speed. It’s 26-30 days sailing from Hormuz to the US East Coast via Suez. (Add 14 days if via Cape of Good Hope). Bunker fuel prices are currently over USD1,000 per MT so a VLCC would burn around USD8mil in making in transit via Suez and USD12mil if transiting via the Cape.
All of which will get passed on down the supply chain.
That’s frikkin brilliant.
I think Iran should take him up on this. Iran takes their $2 million at the first toll booth, then Trump can set up his own toll booth a little ways further on and squeeze them for whatever he can get. Iran will never split their $2 million with Trump, that’s for certain.
“Somebody’s got to go back and get a shit load of dimes”
Sorry, had to be said.