Perhaps, I couldn’t say. It could be that the FBI is drumming up unjustified fears of Iran because the war is, so far, unpopular. That wouldn’t surprise me a great deal.
Is there any intelligent speculation about how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain mostly closed?
I was going to post asking for speculation over two options – one where U.S. ground troops occupy the shores of the Strait, and one where we do not. However, this intelligent article claims that the ground invasion option does not exist:
Ghost of Gallipoli: US warships cannot control the Strait of Hormuz
With Trump, sometimes the inconceivable happens. But that’s totally unpredictable, and I guess Netanyahu would talk him down from that cliff. So let’s say Trump will not launch a land war in Asia. What’s the speculation on the strait closure timeframe after Trump stops bombing?
If the Iranian government does not collapse, and it looks like it won’t, I think the most probable result is that at some point in the next two months or so Trump declares victory and stops military operations, a bit later Iran, needing the money, stops closing the Straits.
Or may be, after some months of closing the Straits, and with the U.S. bombing campaign reduced by sheer logistic fatigue to sporadic attacks, Iran will open the Straits out of economic necessity and save face saying that any new massive attacks or assassinations will be met with another closure of the Straits.
That said, knowing the people involved anything can happen, In one extreme if occupying the Straits is impossible Trump may try to occupy the whole country, in the other the Iranian government may fall and be replace by who knows what.
TLDR: I would say no more than 4 months or so.
Forgot one possibility, the U.S. armed forces somehow open the Straits by force without putting boots on the ground, it looks very hard to me, but I’m not a military expert.
I don’t see how. There’s too much Iran that can serve as a launchpad for very long-range munitions (like the 1600-mile Shahed drones). There isn’t enough force that can be usefully projected over that much area.
I think you’ve made an assumption not in evidence. Iran is exporting more oil through the Hormuz Strait now than before the war.
Iranian oil exports up about 30% month over month amid U.S.-Israeli war - CBS News
I expect Trump will try more “shock and awe” to get Iran to back down. I also expect it to not work.
Unless he goes nuclear, which he well might; but that would have its own, very unpredictable consequences.
I didn’t view the article since I couldn’t find a text version but if so then it’s literally the stupidest thing about the war so far. Not by itself: it’s conceivable that the US only wished to engage in limited warfare and so wouldn’t target tankers. But compare it to Venezuela, where we were capturing tankers without even being in an acknowledged state of combat with them. You’d think that there would be a better case for Iran than for Venezuela.
This is something the US could probably “fix”, if they’d had the wit to plan for it. Denying Iran the use of the strait for at least as long as Iran denies the strait to the rest of the world seems the obvious play, and exactly the kind of thing a first-class navy is designed for.
But removing Iranian oil from the market just makes the oil price spiral worse. That’s why Trump removed the sanctions from Russian oil. Trump is more afraid oil prices rising than he is of Iranian missiles.
In the meantime, back here in Israel Netanyahu is getting flack from the opposition for not attacking Iranian oil facilities.
Well, we can’t have this war getting messy, can we?
It is genuinely mindboggling to take out political leadership, initiate a bombing campaign on this scale, not have a plan for Hormuz and also not have the will to hit their oil and face that economic fallout.
Maybe we shouldn’t be starting a war with no mission, no plan, and idiots in charge?
Oh of course not.
It’s still probably (maybe) better to have this shooting war than fully commit all things considered. But its insane what Israel and the US think they’re going to get out of it with moddling it the way they have.
Yes, fully committing (assuming you mean ground invasion) would be much, much worse. This is already catastrophic and accomplishing pretty much nothing.
That or (metaphorically) going nuclear on the global economy.
Either way itll just add to the suffering while still not actually achieving any positive. The only benefit to pushing further is the failure might come faster.
I don’t either, but may be there’s some way, just contemplating the possibility.
But if the Strait gets dangerous with mines that will surely be impacted.
Also, while I hadn’t considered it in my response, as gnoitall says the U.S. could very easily deny the Straits to Iranian exports to pressure Iran.
I think the big winner is China, who clearly will be able to establish more control and ultimately take Taiwan. Also, their development of electric vehicles and solar tech will serve the energy needs of the 21st century.
Russia is a short term winner with its energy sector wins. Oil,and gas to Europe, the easing of sanctions means bad news for Ukraine.
America has lost its global hegemony.