ISTM that’s the real Milkhemet Mitzvah.
That’s up to the Iranian people to decide. If they buy their government’s propaganda, then yes, maybe. Survival is such a low bar that it’s virtually impossible not to pass it. But if they realize that their government is weak, that it wasted billions of dollars on useless missiles and defenses while their country starved, that they can’t prevent their enemies from bombing them at will, then maybe something can change.
Revolutions succeed when the people think their oppressive government is weak. If the government presented itself as the underdog from the start, then maybe survival will be accepted as a sign of strength. I’m not sure the Iranians thought of themselves that way, though. I think they were convinced they were a powerful country, and now they know they aren’t.
If they don’t see themselves as the underdog when fighting the only global superpower I don’t see how could they ever.
I think this is most likely. Trump has proven his consistent SoP is to unnecessarily break something - at great expense and for no clear purpose. And then eventually lose interest and do the same damned thing someplace else. Only accomplishments are to cause pain to those he dislikes, and enrich himself and his cronies in the process.
Go USA!
Possibly. They may also realize that their own government got them into this mess and gained absolutely nothing from it - that everything their country has done has only made their lives more miserable.
I don’t know. I have faith that the Iranian people will do the smart thing.
Another gift link to an article on the possible consequences of this war, this time, from the Atlantic. Again, they predict that Russia and China are the winners.
But this war may have made it harder, not easier, for the Iranian people to change their government. We bombed a school. There are probably many other such atrocities we’re not yet aware of. This is what happens when idiots lead a war.
That’s a completely separate matter than your previous “revolutions happen after failed wars” theory.
The war may, far from demonstrating to them that they government spending priorities are misguided, prove to them that their government was right when it said that the U.S. and Israel were evil and out to get them.
A school was bombed, and their government failed to prevent it.
Or do you think that they won’t rebel against a government they hate because they’re angry about the United States? Not everything is about you, you know.
When the WTC was destroyed in 9/11 the U.S. government failed to prevent it, did you notice any anger against the government from the U.S. citizenry? or were they angry with Al Qaeda, Islam, any and all middle eastern government and the like?.
Why do you think Iranians are different?
9/11 was a surprise attack, using a very novel method. The American people didn’t see it coming, so for better or for worse, they didn’t blame their government for not seeing it coming.
Everyone saw the U.S.-Israeli attack coming.
Israel and America got them, and they could do nothing about it. That makes them weak.
If the Chinese started bombing California and the U.S. military couldn’t shoot down a single plane, wouldn’t Americans blame their own govenment?
Yes, but more than that, we’d demand immediate and overwhelming military response. Like the Israeli public after Oct 7th. And as much as you blamed Netanyahu and his government, it didn’t bring him down, did it?
There hasn’t been an election yet.
What makes you think there will be an election, or especially a meaningful election, in Iran in the medium term (maybe even the long term) after this war?
Look, I may be wrong about everything. I don’t know what’s going to happen, and I don’t think you do, either. The best we can do is wait and see.
Betting that idiots in charge with no mission and no plan will screw up this war seems like a wiser bet than a positive long-term outcome.
You may be right, but on the other hand I think you may be applying first-world, militarily-powerful nation thinking to Iranians.
Poor nation citizens do not assume they can beat attacks from Israel AND the U.S. at the same time and get angry when their government fails to do so. They get angry with the attackers for taking advantage of them.
The argument that the attackers demands to influence Iran internal and foreign policies were not met and thus the attack was inevitable may not prove very convincing, specially in the emotionally charged aftermath of devastating bombings.
I’m wondering what the total cost of this war is going to end up being for the US alone.
The human cost in lives - hopefully not more than we’ve seen to date.
The cost in ordinance, troop costs, replacement hardware costs, etc.
Not to mention the cost to the rest of the world for stuff blown up, and the increased cost in oil prices - that’s got to amount to trillions of dollars once all is said and done.
Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Only if it did nothing to strike back. The Iranian government is doing things to strike back.
When a vastly more powerful nation attacks another because its mad king decides he wants to, very few people are going to blame their nation for being unable to defeat a nation that totally outmatches them. Doing whatever it can to make their enemy bleed while the madman’s army runs amuck killing at random, that’s what they want. And that’s what the Iranian government is doing.
Refusing to strike back would be far more likely to bring the regime down than almost anything else.
We can also advocate that a war run by idiots with no mission and no plan should cease.