If you have thoughts about what the consequences will be to the US and its citizens as a result of our bombings of Iran and other targets, this is the thread for it.
Chaos. I think it’s inherently unpredictable, like any war, but even more so considering the complete lack of planning and lack of a coherent explanation, rationalization, and mission. And extra more so because those in charge are idiot malevolent clowns like Hegseth and Trump.
Long term, even more entrenched hatred for the US and Israel in the ME and especially Iran, and a greater pressure worldwide for acquiring nuclear weapons as the only deterrent to and increasingly bloodthirsty and treacherous US.
Short term? No telling, as said.
That’s what’s going to fuck us worse than anything else. I get the impression the plan is basically “twist their arm until they say “Uncle!”” without any actual objectives or goals beyond that.
It’s basically bullying on an international stage.
The message has been sent that Trump and his associates are willing to kill adversaries, even if they are in the midst of negotiating with them, and this message will be taken seriously.
Why I expect everlasting peace, with everyone in the Middle East loving each other as brothers!
/s
One thing I’m surprised I haven’t heard about is ICE specifically targeting Iranian-Americans for detention and/or deportation.
We’ll continue to hemorrhage support and influence with our allies while convincing our enemies that military might and nuclear weapons are the only means of safety. Things will become more dangerous for Americans abroad and the risks of attack on US soil go up considerably.
So business as usual I guess.
A few weeks ago, pundits were writing as if Trump wanted to divide up the world between himself, the colossus of the Americas (and Greenland), Putin, and Xi. Now we are back to more of an unpredictable Trump who could chicken out one week and lash out anywhere the next.
On balance, I think this is bad. Responsible statecraft has to, on average, lead to better outcomes. But I cannot say chaos never works. If Xi, a week ago, was sure Trump would chicken out should China invade Taiwan, now he is probably less sure.
I suspect that Trump is going to announce that the mission has been completed in just a few weeks. And Iran’s military capabilities will be largely neutered, along with their top leadership. But the U.S. will not otherwise seek regime change.
What I’m not certain about is what will happen elsewhere. It wouldn’t surprise me if Israel announces their intention for regime change in Iran, although I think that occupation of that country is highly unrealistic.
There will certainly be blowback against the U.S. But that might not come for some time. Perhaps a terrorist attack should be expected in the next few years.
Meanwhile, I’ll tell you who should be upping his security detail. Living in Miami isn’t exactly staying on the down low.
Bringing over from the other thread, I think Kurdish nationalism has always been a potential flashpoint, and would be a potential major outcome of destabilizing Iran would likely be Kurdish uprisings even if we weren’t actively encouraging them.
So I’m betting that regional Kurdish-related conflict is now high on the list of likely outcomes.
Armageddon, if we are to believe reports that some of our top military leaders are preaching this to their troops.
As for me: More hatred for the USA spreading throughout the Middle East and further alienation from our former allies.
Robert Reich, whose opinion I respect greatly, wrote today on Substack that the end result may be nothing less than World War III.
I googled and found what may be the original source for this:
Sure sounds like one of the “Consequences to the US for Engaging in the Bombing of Iran.” But, unfortunately, it is not speculation.
The whole ICE deal is a numbers game, and I don’t think there are enough Iranian-Americans to make a splash.
One consequence I haven’t seen mentioned is a rise in gas prices. Heading into Spring. Will it still be high for Summer? Because that’s key vacation/travel time, and folks will not be happy. And I’m pretty sure that OPEC will keep those prices up a while because it’s a great excuse for it.
The U.S. is and has been storing up enemies, abroad and at home. These events will add materially to that store of hatred and vowed revenge. Things may calm down, U.S. foreign policy may one day revert to a more reasonable level, but it will be too little and too late. I have no idea when, but when that stored-up hatred and revenge bursts out it will be beyond our worst fears. I hope I’m dead before that happens.
Current (started 02MAR2026) thread:
Or Xi could consider the US cannot divert materiel and personnel away from this latest adventure.
I don’t think Trump has a choice. He must announce no later than the fifth week that the mission is complete and succeeded like nobody’s ever seen before. Granted a goodly chunk of the MAGA crowd will still support him no matterwhat, but if he doesn’t announce this in that timeframe, he’s going to lose a lot of support and so will the other Republicans in office.
Iran experiencing a regime change is something which I honestly don’t foresee. First off, Iran’s not Iraq. Hussein was not an actual legitimate leader. He didn’t have any real plans for his successor to be chosen. Next, the Shah basically relied on being king and that meant his on after him would be king. The country’s government under him was not a constitutional monarchy in practice since he obviously didn’t care a whit about any constitution. Iran, after the revolution, ended up with a civilian democratic government overseen by a theocracy (an interesting mix of governmental types). The architects of that carefully crafted a constitution to create that. And then they also created a special military branch to enforce it. The only changes I foresee in Iran’s goverment is the people holding whichever governmental or theocratic offices there are.