IF Trump/Hegseth/Miller goes nuclear in Iran (and nobody in the chain of command has the stones to stop him)… then what?
How will Iran react?
how will the rest of the world react?
I’d guess Iran will not immediately give in to Trump’s demands. This is not WW2 and Iran is not Japan at the end of the war.
For the rest of the world, I would HOPE there would be universal condemnation, followed by dumping of US treasuries, and a near complete closure of trade. I HOPE that Canada would shut down the pipeline to the US and shut off transmission of power to the states, along with stopping any shipments of potash.
I think your hopes are unfounded unfortunately.
There would be universal condemnation, in words yes.
In facts… not so much, I expect widespread symbolic acts but little in the way of actual factual consequences.
Of course the symbolic has a way to become factual, eventually, but in the immediate aftermath? nothing much would happen.
Forget it. There would be much pearl clutching (pro tipp: get long in pearl necklaces, the longer the better) and hand wringing.
Consternation all around! Much my-oh-my-ing! Who would have thought? No, really!
But then, of course, realpolitik, facts that cannot be ignored, and we need the USA because of Putin, and we must comply, and we have to! Yes! Where would we be without them?
And, quite frankly: those Iranians had it coming. Sponsors of terrorism. Closing the Straight of the Ur-Moose! Unshaven pack, them heathens.
You are misunderstanding. The Western world would buckle to the USA, not buckling to Putin being one of the reasons excuses they (we) would use. And the economy, stupid!
I should use more /s to make what I mean clearer, no matter how outrageous and evident to me, it seems. Sorry.
I would hope (again that word!) that the Western world would clearly see that paying the Dane-Geld to them would simply result in either a) anyone with nukes getting any territory/spoils they want, or b) worldwide nuclear destruction.
There needs to be a worldwide contingency plan in place to show the world that actions like this have disastrous consequences for the economy of the attacking country. Otherwise you are giving them carte blanche to do whatever they want, anywhere in the world.
And this would include ANY country with nuclear weapons.Wr
Wrecking the economy of the USA for a decade is preferable to wrecking the world order forever.
Edit: And this is probably going off track, so I should have started that other thread. (slaps hand)
There’s a lot of hand-wringing in the US but no effective opposition. Trump realizes that yet again, he has an authority he can abuse and nobody will stop him, and starts throwing around nuclear threats casually, and quite possibly other nuclear attacks when the other side fails to submit fast enough.
With the nuclear taboo broken, Putin nukes Ukraine’s major population centers and uses the conventional military to genocide the rest of the Ukrainian population.
Everyone else speedruns the development of nuclear weapons or tries to get under the nuclear umbrella of an existing nuclear power.
Global destruction. If the US is willing to commit a nuclear first strike against a non-nuclear state, then it is willing to nuke anyone, and the only sensible response is for every other nuclear-armed state to take us out immediately in the hopes of neutralizing enough of our ability to fight back as to mitigate the destruction they will suffer themselves.
Ah, a new thread, fine! No more hijacks. That was close. Then hear me out: Shunning the USA would hurt most Wertern nations more than the USA itself. Look at the trade figures. The USA relies for more than half of its GDP on internal consumption. Boycotting the USA would only do President Ineptstein’s job, the one he did not accomplish with the dumb tariffs. But it would ruin the EU, and Japan, and Korea, and Taiwan.
The world order is already broken. He broke it.
And I have seen the last four years that the political leaderes of the EU are cowards. If they don’t stand up to Putin how do you expect them to stand up to the temper tanTrump in the White House? Chancellor Olaf Scholz sent helmets to Ukraine and wanted to be commended for that. Helmets! Zelenski was asking for ammo! Four years later Chancellor Friedrich Merz has still not given the Ukraine Taurus missiles. President Pedro Sánchez claims he is a pacifist (and don’t get me started about what he thinks of Israel and Gaza, now that would be a hijack for the ages!). President Macron has called Putin and looked stern while speaking. Unfortunately it as not a zoom call, only audio, Putin did not notice. Macron was much relieved. I could go on.
China might do that. Europe? I doubt it.
Never. Europe has not closed trade with Hungary, indeed the biggest German car factories are there. Hungary! Europe will never sink the cost already invested in the USA. They should, but they won’t.
What is then to stop the USA from invading? That is a clear case of national security, not like all the lies that the idiot in charge has told so far. After nuking Iran that would be peccata minuta. Small potatoes. And Canada could not stop them.
The only “hope” would be Iran doing some serious damage. 9/11 times one hundred. Could they? And to be frank: I don’t want to have to choose between the USA gone nuclear rogue and Iran going berserk. Let’s face it: If the USA goes nuclear we are fucked.
The only ones that could do something if the Clusterfucker in MisChief gets nuclear ballistic are the USA themselves. If that happens, sorry, it’s up to you to depose him. Impeach first and condemt him in a regular court fast. Sentence him to death. Him and his accolites. And then shoot him and them and their families. And disbarr his lawyers.
Nobody else can do it if it ever gets that far. Don’t expect the rest of the World to do what you* should have done long ago. You elected him. Twice. You own him.
* Sorry if you personally are not US American, but that does not invalidate my arguments.
Yes, I have no doubt about that. However, intense pain for a short time would be very preferable to having the US as a completely rogue nation that can simply nuke a capital city and then march in and take whatever resources they desire.
Because these are the two options available.
Japan, China, Canada together hold 2 trillion in US debt. A dump of even a portion of that would send the US economy into the dumpster.
There needs to be a lot of things in this world, but you’re not going to get them. What you’re going to get is hardball reality.
If you’re going to hope for stuff, hope that there are enough sane people close enough to the trigger to prevent your scenario from happening. If it does happen, all bets are off for everything.
Yep, I think if we used a nuclear weapon on Iran, getting our economy trashed would be the smooth, mild outcome. It seems far more likely to me that it would either trigger a general exchange* directly, or someone else would be emboldened enough to use them in a similar manner and trigger it themselves.
* And today, the phrase “general exchange” seems to fall completely short of what it describes. It sounds like some sort of secret Santa event.
I don’t think we’d end up in an immediate “general exchange”. But I think one would become nearly inevitable in the not-so-distant future. If the USA were to go nuclear in Iran, it would probably be a matter of days before Putin nuked the Ukraine. And China would tell Taiwan they were on the list as well. Pakistan and India would have little reason to hold off in their next skirmish. North Korea would be happy to attack their enemies as well. And of course, Israel’s much discussed probable stockpile would be on the table as well.
Give the number arrogant, entitled, and supremely selfish power figures involved, once it moves past saber-rattling to an effective tactic… it’ll be used. And even without any sort of MAD scenario, we could easily reach massive fallout and possible climatic change on a scale to further stress food availability and general livability that further conflicts would erupt, causing more exchanges leading to a unrecoverable feedback loop.
As an aside, I think humanity has been inorderly lucky to have managed not to use a nuke again for over 80 years so far. But sooner or later luck always runs out.
Carry on.
If the US goes nuclear, then the other nuclear states have to assume that they’re next. And they have to assume that the US also assumes that they assume they’re next. Which would mean the US is going to strike them next to attempt to prevent them from striking back. Which means they need to strike us first to try to minimize the amount of damage that strike will do to them.
No one in Moscow or Beijing is going to initiate a nuclear attack on the United States based on anything that happens in Iran. It would be suicidal and utterly pointless.
It would be even more suicidal to NOT do so. The only rational decision at that point is to do everything you can to mitigate the US’ second strike ability.