I seem to recall that Thorn and Palmer, in The Hidden Game of Baseball, contend that steals of home in certain circumstances are actually a better percentage play than many other types of steals.
Right – here we are. Chapter 8 (“The Book . . . and the Computer”), pages 158-159:
Of course, there are still only a few situations in which the probability of success is high enough to be worth it – there aren’t a lot of guys who can succeed at stealing home even once in three attempts, and they still need the right situation, as others have pointed out. Figuring out what the real likelihood of success is in a given situation is the real art of managing.
Yep, I think it does. At the end of the movie The Sandlot, the adult Benny steals home to win a game for the Dodgers. Adult Sam, the announcer, makes the call and it goes something like, “Oh, yes…yes! Benny “The Rocket” Rodriguez has just stolen home!!”
quote:"In general, lefties don’t play catcher (or second, short, or third). They probably could, but it is a generally accepted practice that a left-handed catcher would run into two big problems: 1) they would be facing the wrong way when fielding a bunt and trying to make a throw to first and 2) they are more likely to have trouble making a throw to second on a steal attempt because most batters are right-handed and the catcher would have to throw around them. "
I’m right-handed and I can naturally make a throw to 3rd (if I’m a catcher) far easier than 1st. To first I have to rotate my entire body where my trunk faces approx due east to make the most efficient throw to first. If I’m squared to the pitcher, 3rd base throw is WAY easier than 1st.
Where is your above logic coming from re no left-handed catchers? I would expect that a lefty-catcher would be the preferable…
FYI, Cecil has written a column regarding the issue of left-handed catchers. I don’t know if it’s in the online database, but it is in one of his books.
Most pitchers these days pitch from the stretch with a runner on third thus holding the runner closer to the bag. For a runner to steal home he needs the pitchers to take a windup. As soon as the pitcher starts his windup the runner can break for home, giving him another second or so to beat the pitch to the plate. A smart base stealer such as Carew would have already taken a good lead before the pitcher started into his windup shortening the distance even more.
Many times the pitcher will break his windup,a balk, and the runner walks home free and a run scores anyway.
It’s the stolen bases that are the big obstacle in Cecil’s opinion and I would have to agree and retract my support for the bunt fielding theory.
If you want a real challenge, try to play shortstop lefthanded.
And, you would get credit for a steal of home on a botched rundown unless there was an error on the play. Basically, anytime a runner goes from base X to base x+1 without the ball being put into play or being forced or a balk or a wild pitch/passed ball, it’s a stolen base.
Also if a runner is attempting to steal a base and a passed ball or wild pitch ensues, it’s ruled a stolen base. Marquis Grissom was credited with a steal of home in Game 4 of the ALCS, even though he would have been out if Lenny Webster had held on to the pitch.
The first out in my scenario is a fly out, not a force out. Once the outfielder catches the ball, the runner can take off from 3rd and score. The other two outs really have nothing to do with the appeal of the runner leaving 3rd too early.
Whatever the logic is behind all catchers being right-handed, the main reason for it is that baseball people believe* a right-handed throwing catcher is better than a lefthander.
Re: four outs. It’s not theoretical to have four outs in an inning; the major league record for strikeouts in an inning is four (held by many). barbitu8 your example only has three outs – the batter, the runner on first, and the runner on third on appeal.
The second and third outs of your scenario are force outs, therefore the run would not count, therefore there would be no reason to appeal to third for the fourth out.
I’m bringing this thread back from the grave only to point out to those who may have missed it that Raul Mondesi stole home in last night’s Blue Jays-Yankees game.
I didn’t see it, but from the article description, it was a “straight” steal - the first in Blue Jays team history. Mondesi was on third, and simply took off for home when the pitcher (Randy Keisler) started his windup. The pitch was high, and the catcher had no opportunity to attempt a tag before Mondesi slid in safely.
The score at the time was 3-2 Yankees with 2 out in the bottom of the 3rd. Jose Cruz, a switch-hitter, was batting at the time, and the article doesn’t mention which side of the plate he was on (although he’s quoted as saying he “got out of the way”, which may imply he was batting righty). Mondesi commented after the game that they’d observed that Keisler was taking a long time to get the ball to the plate.
Baseball experts? Can you have a “wild ptich” and a steal of home? Or is it more likely it was just a wild pitch (error) and the player advances to home (not credited with a steal). Or was it just a tough play for the catcher and the player stole home on a tough play (but not a “wild pitch”)
Just would like someone to debunk Chronos’ observation that there was a wild pitch to the plate and a steal of home. Seems to me it wasn’t both.
RE: The four outs…I still have to stand by my original thought. Batter #3 strikes out, but the ball get sby the catcher, allowing him to reach first. It is recorded as a strikeout, and Batter #4 then makes the final out to complete that half of the inning. There are a few instances where a pitcher has recorded four strikouts in the inning via this method
Whaddya know, it happened last night. Raul Mondesi of the Blue Jays stole home against the Yankees, a straight steal. He was on third with two out, the pitcher (a rookie) wasn’t paying attention to him, and he legged it out. Since the Blue Jays ended up winning by one run, it was a pretty big blunder by the Yankees.
Mondesi is the first Toronto player to ever steal home on a straight steal; it is the second steal of home in his career.
I find myself forced to disagree, Superdude … although the strikeout is recorded as such in the pitcher’s statistics, the play is not an out, but a, um, ‘reached base on a dropped third strike’. (Geez, that’s cumbersome.)
To put it another way-every player who has an official at-bat in an inning either scores, makes an out, or is left on base. (A batter who is at the plate when the inning ends on a ‘caught stealing’ etc. is not credited with an at-bat.) So ordinarily, the total of runs scored and men left on base for an inning = the number of men who came to the plate plus three (the three who made outs). In the tagging-up example, you’ll find that (when you put together all of the details) four men came to bat, there were no runs scored and nobody left on base; hence, there were (had to be!) four outs recorded in the inning.
Right, SCSimmons. On a dropped 3d strike, the pitcher gets credit for a K, but the batter is not out if he gets to 1st base before either he or the base is tagged.
Philster, if you read my post following Chronos, you’ll see that it can’t be both a wild pitch and a stolen base. If he’s going with the pitch, he gets credit for the stolen base.
How do you steal 1st base? I guess you can do it if you’re on 2d. Talk about a wrong-way Corrigan. Only a Cub runner would do that. Or you can dash into the field from the stands and grab it if you’re fast enough.
[quote]
A stolen base shall be credited to a runner whenever he advances one base unaided by a hit, a putout, an error, a force out, a fielder’s choice, a passed ball, a wild pitch or a balk, subject to the following: (a) When a runner starts for the next base before the pitcher delivers the ball and the pitch results in what ordinarily is scored a wild pitch or passed ball, credit the runner with a stolen base and do not charge the misplay. EXCEPTION: If, as a result of the misplay, the stealing runner advances an extra base, or another runner also advances, score the wild pitch or passed ball as well as the stolen base.
The exception is the key part, it is possible to have official wild pitch and a stolen base, and it doesn’t mention anything against a steal of home, so it seems legal, if I’m reading it right.
Well, of course if another runner advances due to the “wild pitch,” the pitcher will be charged with a wild pitch. As I said, if the runner is attempting to steal, it is a stolen base. If he is attempting to steal 2d, and gets to 3d, he gets one stolen base, and the pitcher gets a wild pitch charged to him for the extra base. If both runners on base are going with the pitch (a double steal, or even a hit-and-run, but that would not be done for the runner on 3d), there is no wild pitch unless a runner gets another base. Both runners will get credit for stolen bases.
Incidentally, from the remarks posted, I retract my initial post that you Boarders are great baseball experts.