The sobering news from Florida is that there are about a million more registered republicans than democrats in the state. And during Covid, a lot of people from other states (which were enforcing stay at home orders, or vaccine mandates) moved to Florida because DeSantis was rebelling against mandatory measures.
So Florida has likely become more red since 2020; just a guess.
Reagan was 3800 votes away from carrying all 50 states in 1984. That’s unimaginable now.
“Poor bastard. I almost tied him, and I didn’t even run.” - Dennis Miller
In 1972 Nixon won 49 states and McGovern only won Massachusetts and DC. Oddly, Massachusetts wasn’t really close for Nixon, even though no neighboring state or New England state was competitive for McGovern. McGovern wasn’t even from MA. He was from South Dakota.
In 1936, Alf Landon only won Vermont and Maine. Again, easily, weirdly enough. Landon was from Kansas and wasn’t close there.
I picture George Washington laughing from the grave “My unanimous election will NEVER be duplicated!”
I think Harris will win handily, though we certainly aren’t going to go about it like we did in 2016. We may be up for a while, I’m hoping MI and WI are called before I go to bed. If that happens and PA or GA and NC go blue, we can start the party. We will still have to fight fascism in the courts and have massive security on Jan 6.
I hope you’re right, but my expectation is that Trump will win between the system being rigged to favor the Right, and all the voter suppression and intimidation coming from the Republicans. As well as the possibility of the Republicans using some excuse to hand it to the Supreme Court so it can declare Trump the winner.
This is my biggest fear: she handily wins the popular vote, and clears 270 in the EC by quite a bit. But some governor, or Secretary of State, in some Trumpsylvania county, kicks up some stink about some voting irregularity, SCOTUS fast-tracks it, and before you know it, Roberts is patiently explaining how The Founders totally forsaw political parties, and the circumstances, buried in the fine print of some dissent from two hundred years ago, mean that they have no choice but to hand the reins back to the Mango Mussolini, and Thomas and Alito smile their smug smiles, and the great experiment is well and truly over.
I know, super long shot. But not out of the question.
I wish I thought it was a long shot, rather than a high likelihood.
I’m not sure what the nation would do in the case of a full-blown treason like this at the highest level. Fareed Zakaria wrote about this in 2020 and said that in theory, they could steal the election. But probably only once. The riots, the outrage, the absolute fight against tyranny would be awful.
I hate to use the phrase “Civil War”, but outright stealing an election…might push us there.
2000 had vibes of theft, but nothing like this.
Should someone start a “prediction” thread?
Man, these poll forecasters switching to saying Trump is favored are scaring me. Probably irrationally so, but it is getting scary.
Already done:
Thx. I was thinking more about simple EC predictions, maybe including swing states. But no big deal.
Glancing at that “prediction” thread, I’m having a hard time figuring out how it differs from this or the polling thread. But I’ve often failed to see the harm of hijacks or the benefit to splitting threads.
Ordinary people would yell and scream but not be able to do much. The Democrats would instantly roll over in the name of “normalcy” and “bipartisanship”.
If things get to the point of all-out fascism and mass murder the Democrats will go to their deaths insisting that if they’d just catered to the Right harder everything would have turned out fine. They’ve consistently put submission to the Republicans above their own welfare, much less the welfare of their supporters.
According to Nate Conh:
[quote]It’s hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Mr. Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood. For the rest, their status and reputations are on the line. If they underestimate Mr. Trump a third straight time, how can their polls be trusted again? It is much safer, whether in terms of literal self-interest or purely psychologically, to find a close race than to gamble on a clear Harris victory.
At the same time, the 2016 and 2020 polling misfires shattered many pollsters’ confidence in their own methods and data. When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it. And frankly, I share that same feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.[/quote]
In my more cynical and paranoid moments, I think this has been the far right’s goal all along. Gain control of the government through constitutional trickery, provoking the left into rebellion to provide an excuse for a violent crackdown. That way they can eliminate the opposition under the cover of “suppressing an insurrection.”
As a wise man once, said, it’s such a fine line between stupid and clever.
That’s a terrible plan then. They wouldn’t gain control of the government because of the rebellion.
I mean, if the entire plan is, “Start a war and hope it ends favorably for us”… Okay maybe, but what a stupid gamble.
But if you openly steal an election you don’t control anything.
Well, as David Frum predicted; if the Republicans can’t win through democracy, they won’t abandon their platform, they’ll abandon democracy.
Yup, and I think that’s a legitimate concern.
Our CrossFit no-longer-buddies wore their Trump-Vance tee shirts to the gym today. Sigh. They’re upper class white Montanans who drive a frigging BMW X5. I’m not going to ask, but I have to assume violent bigotry. I mean, if you want the tax cuts you don’t buy the tee shirt.