I feel at this point real numbers and better stats would have a positive effect on panic. How could a model be built that would somewhat accurately predict unreported infections? Random sampling? What kind of numbers would ease fears? Can case studies and histories create a model that might reflect unreported cases?
Without testing and tracking, models are pointless.
To ease panic, drink less. To obliterate panic, drink more. Remember: epidemic = EPIC and pandemic = PANIC.
Anther way to ease panic: test EVERYBODY so we have some fucking idea of what’s coming at us. Testing a few hundred out of a population of millions (cf Louisiana and New Jersey) tells us nothing except that leaders are incompetent, which we already knew.
My wife literally does this kind of stuff for a living.
Yes, you could construct a statistical analysis plan to randomly sample and figure out the extent and growth of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Once you had that you could actually get a handle on how deadly is really is, too, which we do not actually know. Once you did that I agree you could cut down on panic, if for no other reason than people would be vastly more confident the government had a true handle on this, and they’d be able to see progress and a projected endpoint.
That’s a big, big, job though. And in most places the testing kits are not available.
No. The real numbers would be so much worse than the published numbers so it would increase panic.