Study shows IMF programs hurt growth?

In the latest issue of Harper’s magazine, there’s a long article by William Finnegan entitled “The Economics of Empire,” arguing against the Washington Consensus on IMF and World Bank policy. Finnegan thinks the IMF and World Bank are bad, bad, bad. He makes one particularly startling claim:

“A recent study found that IMF programs have had, overall, a negative effect on growth in the participating countries.” (italics in original)

My question is: Where is he getting this from? Is anyone familiar with this “recent study?” If, in fact, IMF is not just struggling to do any good, but actually harming the countries it works in, that seems like a major finding, but I haven’t seen any news about it. Googling found a report by William Easterly from a few years ago that found that the poor in IMF countries get less of the benefit of growth than in non-poor countries – but that’s not the same as saying IMF causes lower growth. There’s also lots of anti-globalization folks arguing that IMF is bad, but I don’t see anything that I would call a “study” finding negative impact.

I’m not asking whether the IMF is, in fact, effective or ineffective, which I presume would quickly turn into GD material. Just asking for the facts on where one could find the study referenced in the article, and if it’s a piece of serious independent research or if it’s from an advocacy group.

I used to do quite a bit of research in world economic development issues. I don’t know which particular study he’s referencing, but in all likelihood it comes from some think-tank with an axe to grind… it’s not hard at all to find “studies” that support any economic theory you want, typically published by organizations that start with “Institute” or “Center”, and typically not subject to peer-review as one would generally define it.

In many cases, studies I’ve seen of the “IMF (or other) programs retard growth” variety are set up like this: Country X grows quickly and receives no assistance, Country Y gets assistance and has abysmal growth. The problem, of course, is that countries with good economic growth don’t need IMF assistance…

This isn’t necessarily all such “studies”, of course, but I’ve seen this logic enough to generally ignore anything that comes from a study that’s not published in a major peer-reviewed journal.

The onus, of course, is on Mr. Finnegan to tell us what exactly this study is… I tend to think that if it were in fact published in some reputable journal, he would have enthusiastically noted it in the article, rather than skimping on details.

Here’s a butt-load of studies that would fit the bill, all from the Cato Institute:

http://www.cato.org/economicliberty/imf.html

Take your pick, I’m sure each of them is concerning the evils of the IMF. They’re probably a little better reasoned than your average garden variety “think-tank” studies, although that’s hardly praise.

IMF programs are designed to promote one particular type of economic growth. The IMF will give loans to country A, the county A is expected to invest the money in an export driven industry to pay back the loans. In theory, this will create export driven jobs and raise the standard of living in country A. The problem is that there is no guarantee of an increasing standard of living for the people of country A. For example, the money could be invested in coffee farms but then the price of coffee drops. The loans still have to be repaid, and now you have a poor country sending what little money it has to the IMF while the people are still poor.

Also, the leadership of the country could just steal the money, or the money could be spent in ways that are bad for the environment.

There is a movement to get the IMF to cancel the debt of the poorest countries, so these countries will have some money to spend on the poor people who live there.

IMNAExpert on the IMF, but as I understand it, here’s an analogy. Pretend that a member of your family is in seriously dire financial straits. She’s spending way more than she takes in, she’s gambling, she’s buying fatty foods & booze. Is giving her money going to do any good? Yes, temporarily. Is making her straighten up her act before giving her money going to do any good? Yes, in the long term. But it will hurt her–subjectively it will hurt her a lot. States go to the IMF because they’re in dire straits. Giving them money won’t fix any problems. That’s why the IMF requires painful austerity measures before lending. Will those austerity measures hurt? You bet. Are they bad? I’m not so sure.

A small economy is going to benefit from opening up to int’l. trade. Any economy is going to benefit from opening to int’l. trade. There may be individual variance between country experiences, but what we can expect to happen is what he should expect to happen. For example, Dollar & Kraay did a study of eighty countries over a period of forty years and found that, “Openness to foreign trade benefits the poor to the same extent that it benefits the whole economy.” While individual cases will vary, the expectation is all we have to go on and the expectation is that openness to trade will expand the economy. Indeed, pretty much the whole of international economic theory and practice bears this out – trade barriers are bad things.

Requiring the gov’t. of the borrowing state to cut back on spending before getting loans will hurt the poor – there’s no doubt about that. But that doesn’t mean that the country and its citizens won’t be better off in the long run. It is a shame that such situations have to happen. No, it’s not a shame, it’s a tragedy. A real and important tragedy. But that’s no reason to think that the IMF should throw out money in support of bad governance.

But, none of that really addresses the OP. Here’s a subscription only article from The Economist that may be a start: www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=S’)H%20)P1[*%23P"L

Auntie, I’ll email it to you so that you can read it. (A move permitted by the site, I shouldn’t be breaking copywrite.)

Get some books by Susan George: “A Fate Worse Than Debt” and “How the Other Half Dies” are two that deal with the consequences of IMF and World Bank intervention in LDC economies.

Not pretty reading by the way.

With all due respect, the TMI instutite states on its about page that it “was founded in 1974 as a worldwide fellowship of committed scholar-activists.” The questions in the OP may be better answered by looking for experts who are merely scholars.

You should check out the Meltzer Report. The Meltzer Commission was established by Congress and headed by a conservative economist. Their conclusion was basically that the IMF and World Bank are completely failing in their mission to reduce poverty.

Maybe a better question is: which IMF/WB development policies can work? I do fear that many countries are saddled with debts that were the result of mismanagement by corrupt, or worse, governments. Why the population should have to pay these off, is beyond me. Shouldn’t loans made from institutions that should know better to dictators be cancelled? What a scam.

Also, didn’t recent Nobel winner Stiglitz (sp?) work for a while at one of these institutions?

Yes, although I’m not so sure how respected his book, Globalization and its Discontents, is by the community of professional economists – including all the ones not at the IMF/World Bank. Here’s an open letter from an IMF guy to Stiglitz that you may find interesting: www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2003_archives/000532.html

Here Krugman asserts that the IMF doesn’t have enough money to have been effective in recent crises and that a bigger IMF is needed: www.pkarchive.org/global/exame.html

I don’t generally disagree with your position, but I would like to point out that it’s hard to tell a hungry sick person, “don’t worry in 10 or 20 years things will be better.”

Any problem with an easy solution wouldn’t be a problem.

Yes. The situation in many a third world country is truly tragic.

I think maybe you should divide your OP, because the IMF is for profit, but the WB isn’t.

:confused: Neither organization is “for profit,” in that their missions are not to create profits for themselves, as corporations’ missions are. But both do make a profit. There might be a valid reason to distinguish between the two, but that’s not it.

Yes, the WTO, and his book Globalization and its Discontents is well worth reading.

I’m just a general reader on this subject, not an expert, but when you have (according to this thread) the Cato Institute and conservative economists agreeing with leftwing economists such as those at the Economic Policy Institute, then there’s got to be more than think tanks with an axe to grind.

Fans of the globalization status quo will point to countries such as India as success stories. (They will sometimes also point to the erstwhile Asian tigers though the truth is that these countries balked the so-called Washington consensus and adopted the same kind of protectionist and nationalist policies that launched Japan’s industrial economy–and also Britain’s and other European countries’ back in the 18th and 19th centuries. The Asian tigers conformed to IMF policies when the mid 1990s crash got them into trouble, and those restrictive policies, in the view of many, made the problem much worse). IMF policies have been extremely unsuccessful in Argentina and parts of Latin America and Africa.

The truth is that, historically, to build up industry you need certain kinds of protection; afterwards you can benefit from free trade. IMF policies, which are driven by conservative econonomic dogmas (practiced by Democrats and Republicans alike) get this backwards and urge free trade policies as a way of developing a new industrial economy rather than growing an existing and already healthy one.

The issue isn’t just loans and therefore debt–it’s the strings that come attached. To receive the loans they need to boost development, these countries have to cease to protect local industries that the population has depended on for generations, and open up their markets to foreign investment. Yet there is nothing to prohibit those investors just coming in for a quick profit and then exiting just as fast. And to borrow countries also have to cut their welfare states: and while these social services were usually provided with much red ink, human lives depended on them in very serioius ways. Stripping them entirely away on the promise of industrial growth that doesn’t happen, and then leaving high debt, ruined or raided local industry, and worthless currency in the wake, is the kind of profile that has made these policies so hated. Typically the local middle class is decimated, the poor get much poorer and a handful of local elites and foreign corporations get very rich.
This is a far-ranging problem that doesn’t only affect developing countries. To sign on to free trade agreements European countries are also put under certain kinds of restraint: they’re forbidden, for example, to subsidize their film industries resulting in the decline of local filmmaking and movie theaters filled with Hollywood stuff. So here there is a kind of cultural imperialism taking place, in addition to economic kind.

In theory free trade is a very good thing and definitely the wave of the future. But it can’t be implemented overnight, and it can’t be entirely unregulated. Note that in the US and Europe industry and trade are often very regulated: regulated to protect the environment and protect workers from harm. So the globalization status quo is also asking third world people to accept levels of exploitation and environmental harm that Western countries wouldn’t allow. In so doing it also hurts Western workers b/c it is cheaper for corporations to shift labor costs to places that allow sweatshop conditions–no fire safety, no minimum wage, no collective bargaining allowed. Opponents will tell you that these countries need and want these jobs: and that’s certainly true, but with no regulatory oversight it ends up being a rush to the bottom. After NAFTA good factory jobs exited the US and went off to Mexico where people would be paid about $2/hr. Now the very same jobs are leaving Mexico for China where people are paid about 50cents and hour (and where, ironically, the existing regime subsidizes these wages). Mexico is another example of where free trade policies have failed dismally to improve the lives of the middle and the bottom, though a few have been made spectacularly rich.

This is supposed to work b/c in theory in the West we don’t need these factory jobs any more: we’re all high-tech and service workers now. In practice we don’t provide enough education and training for everyone who used to work in a factory to become a high-tech service professional and there aren’t enough jobs anyway. And why aren’t there enough jobs in say software production? Because the people in the third world making $1/hr can’t afford to buy computers and software. An until minimal labor standards are in place, they’ll never become consumers in the global economy. So what you have is really very precarious–all predicated on growth which is derived from cost-cutting measures, but with so much cost-cutting that few wage earners can afford to buy the products no matter how much cheaper. Almost a kind of pyramid scheme.

And that’s what’s behind all the overproduction, with the US having served in the last decade or so as the buyer of last resort. A lot of this is achieved via credit card debt and almost no savings.

Interesting post, Mandelstam.

Are you sure about him and the WTO? Wasn’t he Chief Economist of the World Bank (or something like that, I don’t recall his exact position)?

I don’t think the OP’s question has been answered.

I’m not sure it COULD be conclusively answered.

Coming up with a controlled study on the issue strikes me as being a difficult task. I do know one thing, though; the IMF’s money is disproportionately likely to be lent to borrowers less financially sound than the typical “Judge Judy” defendant. Given the political maneuverings involved and the carpetbaggetry that Mandlestam described in some detail, I would be pretty amazed if any of the money gets to the people who most need it.

The “problem” with the IMF, of course, is that it is not in the business of fixing economies or helping the poor. It is in the business of lending money, and part of the business of lending money is ensuring it gets paid back. From that perspective the IMF’s willingness to allow carpetbag profits makes perfect sense. They get their money back. If the working Joe gets it up the ass, well, the bill got paid. You could better afford your mortgage if you got rid of your children, too.

Don’t be surprised that borrowing huge scads of money is positively correlated with financial ruin. A loan shark is a loan shark, whether it’s the IMF, your bank, MasterCard, or Frankie “Knuckles” Mobetti.

Don’t top-notch research hospitals get all the really bad cases? So from a high death rate, we can conclude that there is something nefarious going on? Or that the doctors are incompetent?

While healthy criticism is always a good thing, to say that the IMF makes the world a worse place hardly seems credible. If it did do more harm than good, why would anybody go to it?

The countries that it deals with are on the brink of collapse. They go to the IMF and the IMF requires it to make a commitment to get into shape before loaning money, but the loans don’t come after the austerity packages are put into place. The commitment is made and then the money starts to flow. The money is then dished out quarterly. If at any point the borrowing country feels it is suffering net harm from the situation, it can stop borrowing.

And just exactly how is the IMF similar to a loan shark? It has no enforcement mechanism other than refusing to loan money to the offender in the future. That doesn’t sound like loan sharking. “Listen up. Either you pays back the money youse owes us, or Leftie here ain’t gonna do nothin’. Got it?”

Are the austerity packages contractionary? Duh, of course: the country has to get its finances on track. That’s why the loans are there, to provide the expansionary stimulus that will be removed as a result of budget balancing. A lot of countries don’t even borrow once qualified: the private sector provides a lot of funds once they get their acts into shape.

Here’s a couple of more pieces:
csmweb2.emcweb.com/durable/1998/01/15/us/us.5.html
www.brook.edu/comm/transcripts/20010417.htm
www.brook.edu/comm/conferencereport/cr01.htm