Sunnis eager to move from the battle of the RPG to the battle of the 'finger's...

[XT]

Is this a good sign? Was just reading this article on CNN and thought it was interesting…and thought I’d see what, if any reaction it gets here on the 'dope.

Iraqi Sunnis eager to move fight to ballot box

BALAD, Iraq (CNN) – Mullah Nadhim preached open war on U.S. troops for years.

He and many other Sunni Muslims in Iraq shunned elections and fought instead with roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades.

With provincial elections scheduled for autumn, however, Nadhim and other Sunnis say, they made a mistake by sitting out the elections in January 2005. Their absence at the polls, they say, resulted in less political power for Sunnis and more for Shiite Muslims and Kurds.

Some Sunnis say they plan to put down their weapons and instead join “the battle of the fingers,” a phrase for elections that draws its name from the practice of dipping voters’ fingers in ink so they can’t vote a second time.

“At least 80 percent of the Sunnis believe that the battle of the finger is more important, more powerful than the battle of weapons and RPGs,” Nadhim said.

Provincial elections are seen as key in empowering Iraqis at the grass-roots level and creating a political system that includes those who have been alienated from power. The Bush administration has set provincial elections as one of its benchmarks to foster political reconciliation in Iraq.

“On the political front, Iraq has seen bottom-up progress as tribes and other groups in the provinces who fought terror are now turning to rebuilding local political structures and taking charge of their own affairs,” President Bush said recently.

Iraqi authorities originally hoped to hold the elections by October 1. Yet details of the vote, including when it is to be held, are still being debated between Iraq’s main political blocs.

Gen. David Petraeus, the outgoing top U.S. military commander in Iraq, told Congress two weeks ago that provincial elections probably will happen in November.

Whatever the date, one former member of the Ansar al Sunna militant group probably will be among those casting ballots. He said that spurning the last elections in favor of violence left Sunnis in Balad largely powerless.

“Right now, everything is being run by the Shiites,” he said. “God willing, this time it will be better than before.”

Here is what I found most interesting about the article:

With provincial elections scheduled for autumn, however, Nadhim and other Sunnis say, they made a mistake by sitting out the elections in January 2005. Their absence at the polls, they say, resulted in less political power for Sunnis and more for Shiite Muslims and Kurds.

I have no idea how representative of Sunnis in general this is…but if it’s any where near representative it’s a huge step forward IMHO. If they actually see that political power comes from the ballot box instead of from the muzzle of a gun…or even that it COULD come from the ballot box instead of the muzzle of a gun…well, IMHO, that’s a key step.

But, what do you think? For debate I’d like to talk about the ramifications of this, if there are any. Feel free to discuss how widespread or not this sentiment is among Iraqi’s in general and Sunnis in particular. Feel free to speculate on what it may or may not mean.

Please feel free to not discuss how Iraq was a mistake or to mention Bush…I think we’ve had plenty of those debates in the past. I’m also not keen for the usual suspect to come in and talk about how evil the US is…we know already. I want to talk about the subject at hand and not get hijacked into the usual Iraq war directions…if possible.

So…thoughts?

-XT

[BrainGlutton]

Which finger?

[XT]

All of them if you read the article. Or if you don’t you could hijack the thread I suppose…

-XT

[Gozu]

I think it’s clear that democracy and peace are in Iraq’s cards. I give the armed insurgency less than 10 years before it is utterly defeated.

[Sam_Stone]

I think this feeling is quite widespread. Stories about Sunnis wanting to re-engage in the political process have been around for quite a while now.

The risk, it seems to me comes from what happens after the election. There are two possible bad outcomes - one is that even with their added votes, the Sunnis still do not capture enough political power to make them happy. The other is that they get the votes, but get stonewalled by Shiites in government refusing to relinquish power.

There have been many other signs of reconciliation between Shiites and Sunnis, however. Being integrated together in the armed forces is, I think, helping them forge better bonds. That, plus new commercial interests and an improving economy has really reduced tensions.

[mswas]

Quite an interesting development, and seems to support much of what I’ve been reading from those oh so untrustworthy of sources, Journalists actually on the ground in Iraq, or soldiers themselves.

I’m looking forward to it. Maybe we can have the best of both worlds. A withdrawal from Iraq, and Iraq actually working out. God, I’d hate to eat crow on the Bush thing, but I’d rather see a successful democracy in Iraq than to be right.

[Declan]

@xtisme

If they actually see that political power comes from the ballot box instead of from the muzzle of a gun…or even that it COULD come from the ballot box instead of the muzzle of a gun…well, IMHO, that’s a key step.

Keep in mind that its been over five years of constant attrition on the insurgent supply of money , munitions, personel and its starting to show.

They are acknowlging that the insurgency is going to have a political resolution, and now they want to see what they can salvage through the ballot box, which is okay by me.

Declan

[Declan]

@mswas

I’m looking forward to it. Maybe we can have the best of both worlds. A withdrawal from Iraq, and Iraq actually working out. God, I’d hate to eat crow on the Bush thing, but I’d rather see a successful democracy in Iraq than to be right.

Barring any unfortunate circumstance, Iraq should work out as well as can be expected. However your probably going to see a transformation from American troops being occupiers to something like a Japan/Germany commitment.

And if the Iraqis are smart, they may even suggest it.

Declan

[Mosier]

I think the Sunnis can see the direction of the wind, and know that they are completely fucked as soon as America isn’t there to distract and restrain the Shi’ite militias. The Sunni insurgency can not possibly survive in an environment where Iran is the biggest foreign player, and Shi’ites have all the political power. Their only move is to try to get some power in the government before America exits, and even then there’s likely to be lots of Sunni blood shed in the aftermath of our withdrawl.