I notice a whole bunch of big states are having their primaries on Feb 5. Is it safe to say on Feb 6, we’ll know mathmatically who the Democrat and Republican presidential finalists will be?
No, it isn’t safe to say that.
For the dems, 52% of the total delegates are at stake. For the pubs, its 41%. Only a few percentage points have been won so far, so unless a candidate in either party wins overwhelmingly, nothing is mathematically settled.
I hope so. Since California will vote on Super Tuesday, I imagine that would be the 800 pound gorilla that settles everything.
For the Pubs, I really doubt it. If Giuliani catches on in the big states, we could easily see a four way split of delegates, and possibly the first brokered GOP convention in over 60 years.
I’m pretty sure that most (all?) of the Democratic contests are proportional, not winner-take-all. So, even if 50% of the delegates are at stake, if they are split 55/45 (for example). It will not “settle” anything. If Edwards drops out after SC (which he just might do if he finishes third) then it could get even closer. Even in NY Clinton only leads by 10% or so.
The Pubs have many more winner-take-all states so it’s conceivable that it will be over there. Of course, since Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Giuliani have such disparate bases a four-way split is still very possible.
This is correct. They are all proportional, according to Wikipedia at least.
Yep. If not for the concentrating power of the Iowa caucus, which has a sort of run-off process, it might be more open than it is. Admittedly not by much; the excitement over a POTUS with either nappy hair or a womb has pulled independents in that simply aren’t that thrilled with ahem better qualified candidates.
Nor John Edwards neither. (Ouch! & I like Edwards.)
In this thread on the possibility of a brokered convention, I posted my views on the question:
On the Democratic side, I see a very small chance of a brokered convention. At this point, it’s a two person race, and it comes down to mega-Tuesday. If Clinton is perceived (i.e. anointed by the media) as having scored a fairly clear win, Obama is out. If Obama is perceived as having won or tied, he’ll been seen as having broken the front-running Clinton in the big game, and should be able to leverage that into wins in most of the remaining states. Yes, there is some gray area between the two, but the perception should solidify shortly after the results are counted.
On the Republican side, there’s a good chance of there not being a clear winner until late in the game (and perhaps until the convention) if Giuliani wins Florida. If he loses Florida, he’s out (whether he quits or not, nobody will vote for him), and though Romney and Huckabee each have their constituencies, McCain is the only guy with broad-based appeal and seen to be the front-runner. With so many winner-takes-all primaries, McCain should be able to score in states with the majority of delegates.
If Giuliani wins Florida, it will be a muddle. Even with a narrow win, his Florida-only strategy will be seen as having worked, and he’ll get a boost. Though he wouldn’t win New York in the general election, he’ll take it in the primary, and I doubt any of the others have the war chest to buy in the New York media market to challenge him in the neighboring states where he’ll be concentrating. Because of his name recognition and a boost from Florida, he’ll get a lot of support around the country, even though his poll numbers have been dropping to date.
Because nobody will have the money to compete everywhere (or even much of anywhere), everyone will focus where they’re strongest and in a few battleground states. As such, there will be a big patchwork of results, with everybody coming out with something. If nobody has a near majority, each candidate will stay in the race with hopes of brokering their share into a VP nod at least. At that point, it will be a state by state slog until one of them actually captures the delegates needed to win, either by winning them outright or making a deal to give one of the others the VP slot. If that doesn’t happen, watch for fireworks on the convention floor.That whole thread is relevant to this question.