Super Tuesday Primary Discussion

Same here. I want multiple ballots that span several weeks, and cigar-smoke-filled rooms.

I want anti-smoking laws and ordinances suspended for the DNC this summer. :slight_smile:

And let’s make it a drunken brawl, as well!

“Wisconsin Republicans hopeful about bill to set later bar time during Democratic convention”

Right…“Cigar” smoke filled rooms :slight_smile:

I can’t wait to hear the conspiracies if Biden does well and California takes forever to count.

We already know now that California will take forever to count. I’m sure if Biden does well, the Bernie people will be making accusations that the DNC is fixing things in California.

Seems to me that every election we hear talk of a brokered convention. I doubt it will happen. Personally, I think talk Bernie’s lock on the nomination was entirely premature, I think Biden will have a majority of delegates by June.

I’m in a red California county and districts. Too bad the DNC can’t fix things here.

That lengthy vote count occurs county by county, all 58 of-em. The smaller, poorer red counties might be slower than the bigger, richer blue counties in tallying mail-in ballots. If red-county vote-counters with Tramp leanings pull any tricks, Bernie will likely benefit.

I’m not sure elections are the best way to pick leaders. Paintball shoot-outs between candidates might work better. :stuck_out_tongue:

Yup, no measly cigarettes. Not when the stakes are this high.

It’s sure starting to look that way. There are signs that Bloomberg just wants to see how many votes he can get today after spending all that money and then he is going to drop out and support Biden.

Right…“tobacco” smoke filled rooms. :slight_smile:

After 4/20, there might be an adjustment.

This page on Vox has the poll closing times, in US Eastern time, for those who might find it useful. The first 3 close in about an hour - Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia.

Virginia is a key early-poll-close state. If it’s “too close to call”, then Bernie might be on his way to a good night. If he wins the state, he could be on his way to a great night. If Biden blows him out of the water like SC, then Biden could be on his way to a good-to-great night.

Snap shot of PredictIt derived win probabilities as of about right now. Ranked from most Bideny to the Berniest.


State		Biden 	Sanders
Alabama		98.0%	2.0%
Virginia	95.0%	5.0%
North Carolina	93.9%	6.1%
Arkansas	93.5%	6.5%
Tennessee	88.8%	11.2%
Oklahoma	80.2%	19.8%
Texas		54.3%	45.7%
Minnesota	21.2%	78.8%
Massachusetts	19.3%	80.7%
Maine		12.1%	87.9%
Utah		10.4%	89.6%
Colorado	8.2%	91.8%
California	8.0%	92.0%
Vermont		1.0%	99.0%

Looks like the Texas market might be the most interesting.

Massachusetts is a little weird here because Warren is ahead of Biden there.

My final Super Tuesday Tracker has more detailed time series info.

I’ve already seen complaints from Bernie supporters on social media complaining that Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawing before Super Tuesday was some sort of dirty trick by the DNC to hurt Bernie.

voted today in NC and the crowd seemed larger than normal for a primary but I don’t recall the crowd size in 2016

Biden projected winner in VA. No data to call VT. At closing time…big night for Uncle Joe?

Biden wins Virginia and according to Nate Silver: “Bloomberg is considerably underperforming in the exit polls; it looks like he’s at around 11 percent vs. our projection of 17 percent.”

Good news for Biden.

At least I can take comfort that Bloomberg is doing poorly. Hopefully Bernie will get Texas and do well outside of the south.

Hopefully Biden will do well in TX and embarrass Bernie. I’d love to drink some Bernie tears