But more on topic, I think that gives Biden a few points in each state.
Yeah, Amy Klobuchar needs to get the same clue. I was strongly supporting her after NH, but given what’s happened since she needs to get out ASAP and stop being a spoiler.
Whoops. This is why I don’t vote early in primaries. Too much chance you might waste your vote on someone who drops out in the interim.
I wouldn’t assume this. I have a hunch, based on the tack she has been taking the past few days, that she wants to have enough leverage to get *Biden *to team up with her as a ticket at a brokered convention.
I can see why they’d potentially be annoyed, but they would have to literally quit their jobs at that moment to still go to Dallas. Their employers will definitely expect them to go cover his dropout speech and try to question him about whether he’ll endorse Biden.
double post
This brings up an interesting question which I’m sure has been answered somewhere. If I am elected to the convention as a delegate pledged to Warren, but she drops out or “suspends” her campaign, how does my pledge now work? Am I a free agent or do I have to vote as Warren decrees? For how many ballots?
If it is the first, then what Warren says means little because her supporters would likely align with Bernie and probably wouldn’t care if she had struck some kind of cozy deal for a cabinet spot with Biden.
Well, technically you don’t “have to” vote for anybody; the only rule is the “in all good conscience” rule. If you are convinced that the people who voted for Warren that got you in as a delegate want someone else, you have a case to vote for someone else.
The short version is, unless you have to vote for Warren, you can vote for anybody; she can’t make you vote for someone else. She can “suggest” someone, but that’s about it.
“I am under the impression that,” if she only “suspends” her campaign and does not officially withdraw her nomination, you have to vote for her for as long as she’s running. (Someone else claims that all delegates are released after the first ballot, but I have seen no such rule anywhere.) Then again, if she decides not to have her name placed into nomination in the first place, then you can now vote for anybody.
I have been dying to know the answer to this question. I posed it here in GQ, and my memory of the thread was that no one really knew for sure. I posed it on the Triple Nine Society group, and they didn’t really know either. Many articles assume that candidates can “horse trade” with “their” delegates, but it’s totally unclear if that’s actually how it works.
However, I’m not sure you’re right about how individual Warren delegates would feel. I think a lot of them are mad at Bernie about the dustup they had over whether a woman could win, the confrontation at the debate, etc.
Bernie Bro protestors shut down an Amy event tonight.
Sorry that Amy has to get a taste of how nasty the Bros are.
To be fair, I think those are BLM protesters. They are notorious assholes, but they have done the same thing to Bernie (one of the few times I have been sympathetic to him).
I suspect they’re the same ‘BLM’ protestors who harassed Pete.
538 has a fantastic Super Tues prediction “game” – pick who wins the various states and see how it affects the chances for a delegate majority.
Picking only the states that 538 currently estimates Bernie is most likely to win (CA, MA, CO, UT, ME, VT, and American Samoa) as Bernie victories raises his majority chance to ~43%, reduces Biden’s to 4%, and “no one” with a majority to ~52%. Doing the same for Biden very roughly flips this, reducing Bernie to single digits and putting Biden around 40%. This is a very close race, but no one aside from Bernie or Biden has a significant chance to get anything close to a majority of delegates.
I also did a scenario with Bernie winning the states he’s strongly favored in (CA, MA, CO, UT, ME, and VT) and Biden winning the states he’s strongly favored in (NC and AL), leaving the rest as toss ups, and this resulted in a Bernie 24% chance for majority, Biden 10% chance, and “no majority” at 65%.
(forgot the link above) Pick Your Own Super Tuesday Winners And Watch The Race Change | FiveThirtyEight
Going by 538, the “bellwether” states for tomorrow are TX and VA. Watch those states closely – if either candidate has a clear win for both of those, they’re probably on their way to a big win for the day. If they split, or those two states are very close, then this could continue on for quite a while.
Giving Bernie TX and VA and leaving the rest as toss ups gives him a ~47% at a majority, with Biden at ~2%. Doing the same for Biden gives him a ~27% chance at the majority, with Bernie down to about 7%.
That is definitely a race!
I just don’t think 538 has enough time and polling information to incorporate the effect of Biden’s landslide victory in South Carolina, Pete Buttigieg’s withdrawing from the race, and the signaling to people who were interested in Bloomberg that Biden is now the only real alternative to Bernie. So I think Biden will do better than these kinds of projections expect. We will soon find out.
I did Google them but the point is all of the other candidates together may add up to 1% of the vote.
I think I have settled my opinion of you.
And what’s that? That out of a half dozen pretty bad candidates, I voted for the the least bad one, as I usually do.
Sanders was a lock to win CO, so I figured I might as well vote for a gay guy for the first time in my life to show solidarity even though he had no chance.
Meaningless gesture but so are these pointless years-long primaries.
I think everyone will get it if I leave it untyped.
New 538 projection after Amy and Pete drop out: Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? | FiveThirtyEight
No Majority 65%
Bernie 20%
Biden 15%
From what I can gather, the only uncertainty is the spoiler effect Bloomberg will have.
It has changed even since then: 17 to 16! Wow. Also interesting is the odds for a plurality: 52-46 Bernie.
Changed again!
No Majority 66%
Biden 17%
Sanders 17%
Plurality 51-48 Bernie
To follow up, I think Silver admits that he is drifting into uncharted waters here. It is really unknown what Biden’s win in SC and the Amy/Pete endorsements have done. It is also a clear unknown how Bloomberg will do seeing as how he hasn’t even participated in a contest until tomorrow.
So I think Silver’s prediction can be summarized as follows:
-
There is a 2/3 chance that Bloomberg, and to a lesser extent Warren, reaches the 15% threshold in enough contests to deny anyone a majority.
-
If the 1/3 chance happens and Bloomy and Warren fade, then based upon the latest developments, it is a coin flip over who between Biden and Bernie come out ahead. Look at the projected delegate count. Almost even.
-
Historically when someone starts on a roll, everyone else gets behind that candidate. Bernie and Biden are so far apart that each will fight until the end.
As someone who is not a Dem voter, but a political junkie, I am enjoying this so far. I know that most on this board do not want a brokered convention and want a clear candidate to beat Trump, I will have a fucking house party to watch a brokered convention. Not because I think that will help Trump, but for the historic nature of it.