Virginia was a fluke because Gingrich and Santorum weren’t on the ballot. At least half of Paul’s votes were probably Gingrich and Santorum supporters voting against Romney.
Please, Og, please let this all keep going and going and going until August . . .
AnotherGreat White Hope heard from…
So Romney wins 7 states, Santorum gets 3, and Gingrich gets one (and does not come close in any others). I don’t know quite what the delegate breakdown looks like, but Romney is getting the lion’s share and he didn’t lose anything he desperately needed to win. I’m sure his campaign was hoping for a slightly bigger win in Ohio, but all things considered it’s definitely a good night for Romney. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to gradually grind his way to a win from here. I don’t know what the roadmap for Santorum would be in making up this gap.
So, what does Gingrich do at this point, stay in and play spoiler to Santorum? He’s certainly not hurting Romney, and there certainly is no path for him to the nomination.
I said this a few weeks ago, I think, but it depends on Gingrich’s ego and Sheldon Adelson’s money. Since Gingrich’s ego has almost no bounds, I guess that means it mostly depends on whether Adelson wants to continue funding his campaign.
Gingrich will at least stay in for Alabama and Mississippi next week. If he comes in a distant 3rd in both those states, he’s got to get out. I think even he can recognize that.
Don’t listen, Newt! Hang in there by your fingers as long as you can! You can still get enough delegates to make some real dick moves in Tampa! Come, on, Newt, this is no time to be a gentleman! Be true to your nature! Be a stinker! You know you want to!
NBC News explains why the lack of winner-take all primaries makes it very hard for Santorum or Gingrich or Paul to catch up to Romney. By NBC’s counting, Romney has about three times as many delegates as Santorum and Gingrich.
Last night on CNN, John King basically played out his prediction for the remaining states and yes, it is nearly impossible for anyone to catch Romney. However, it is very possible for Romney to fall short of the required amount of delegates to win the nomination outright.
I think Gingrich and Paul have to concede at this point. Paul didn’t carry Alaska, Idaho, or Vermont, which are as pro-libertarian as any states out there. Gingrich took Georgia but he came in third in Tennessee, so he can’t even claim to have a regional base. Anything after this is just a spoiler campaign.
I think Newt & Paul will stay in it for the long run, even though they cannot win. I doubt they really care who wins (Santorum or Romney). Their remaining goal is to get as many delegates as they can and hope Romney cannot get a 50% majority by the convention.
At that point Romney will have to negotiate with at least one of the others. Probably by offering the vice-presidency in exchange for delegate votes. It is all a slimy game.
Paul sees himself as an issues candidate and he’s not running for another term in Congress, so there’s not much reason for him to drop out. McCain clinched victory in March 2008 and the last primaries were on June 3, and Paul didn’t drop out until June 12. Unless his base just gives up and stops donating and he runs out of money, he’ll be there until the end even though he won’t be competitive.
I think at this point he’s doing his base more harm than good. The mainstream Republican party might decide that its libertarian faction is big enough to be disruptive but small enough to be jettisoned without costing them any elections.
Ron Paul is an interesting case here, he never could have won but he markets himself very well on something like a retail level. He has a very diverse following ranging from some old line libertarians to a bunch of conspiracy fringe groups. But one central aspect of his appeal is that he isn’t a “buisness as usual” politician. It isn’t inconceivable that Paul’s delegates could be of significance in a brokered convention but how does he explain to his “End the Fed” followers why he sold their support to Mit “Captain Capitalism” Romney?
It looks like Ron may be preparing to ride off into the sunset and any emolument he may barter from Romney would benefit his son Rand. But he still has long term “speakers fees” income potential on the lunatic fringe. Peymon Mottahedeh is a “sovereign citizen” who’s “Freedom Law School” teaches you to defeat the evil IRS in court (for a stiff fee) only neither he nor any of his students has ever beat the IRS in court (and he doesn’t give refunds). And Ron Paul is expected to be a keynote speaker at Freedom Law School’s 2012 Freedom Rally. In fairness to Dr.Paul he is listed as a “pending” keynote speaker and let me assure you that Mr. Mottahedeh lies for a living so it’s possible he never even invited Ron Paul to attend. But “Freedom Law School” is about as fringe as you can get without disconnecting from the grid and Ron Paul is evidently an attractive enough personage to help drum up sales for “freedom rally” tickets. I don’t expect the Doctor to attend but wonder how much, if any he values future speaking fees from the anxious and the angry.
There won’t be a brokered convention, and it’s pretty unlikely that Paul could sell an endorsement like this to his supporters. Even if he tried, I don’t know if they would listen. I’m also doubtful on the idea that a Ron Paul endorsement of any candidate would mean anything for Rand Paul’s career.
I forgot about this, but Ron Paul didn’t back John McCain in 2008. He endorsed Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party) and could certainly do that again this year. I don’t think any of the other Republican candidates are counting on his endorsement and aren’t going to do much to court it if it means offending bigger groups of voters. They seem to think he’s nuts, not that I really disagree.
I agree that a brokered convention is a very remote possibility, but can’t we dream? 
If Newt drops out after the next round and all other things keep breaking the way they have been (unwarranted assumption) the combination of actual Santorum supporters and not-Romney votes might prove greater than the number of Romney supporters in the remaining primaries. There functionally isn’t a democratic primary this year and while “mischievous cross over voting” has been minor so far, that might change. The byzantine superpac finance rules open strategic funding options that just might help campaigns keep their enemies enemy in a race longer than they otherwise may have been.
I freely admit to being somewhat fanciful here, odds are Romney grinds out the nomination leaving the Republicans with a “hold your nose and get out the vote” campaign for the general. But I’ve never witnessed a brokered convention and while it isn’t really a “bucket list” item for me it would keep me bouncing between 24 hour news stations for the duration.
I think there are two things people who think there is a chance of a “brokered convention” aren’t considering.
First, there are still some large states - Pennsylvania, New York, Texas, and California come to mind - remaining, and with the possible exception of Texas, none of them seem to have the “Christian support” that tends to support Santorum or Gingrich; also, California is district-level winner take all (being a “solid blue” state, it has only 10 pledged statewide delegates available).
Second, nobody seems to know how the superdelegates will vote - and yes, the Republicans have superdelegates, albeit only about 100 (each state gets 3, except for the states that lost half of their delegates for being early, and some states force them to vote for the statewide winner).
Gingrich’s categorical imperative is to do what benefits Gingrich personally. Sure he’d like to stick it to Romney, and I’m sure he realizes that he’s essentially splitting the base with Santorum, which makes it easier for Romney to win. But quitting for him would mean a personal sacrifice of prestige and celebrity (not to mention more mundane matters like campaign money and book sales), and that is something he will not abide.
It doesn’t matter to him that a protracted primary is damaging his party. It doesn’t matter to him that he’s only helping Romney (a man he truly can’t stand) by staying in at this point. The only thing that matters is that he keep his bulbous head on the teevee and that the media continue to pay attention to him (y’know, he was on three of the four Sunday political shows this past week; quite a coup for an also-ran).
That’s what Wolf Blitzer said on CNN just now. That if Gingrich drops out then Santorum can present himself as the “alternative” to Romney. I agree. Nothing changes here on out with Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul. Everything changes going forward with Romney, Santorum, and Paul.