Let’s assume the folks here predicting mostly noisy chaos, much ineffectual drift, and small random acts of bureaucratic vandalism from the administration are correct. A la last time with the postmaster retiring all those sorting machines, and a bunch of the Freedumb Caucus refusing to play along with the rest of the Rs or with trump himself. Further assume trump remains about as healthy / mentally capable for all 4 years as he is today.
In that world, the MAGA rank and file will not see much happening that actually improves their experience of their world. trump will keep them entertained, but will also keep their lives unimproved.
When do they lose patience with the revolution they voted for just not happening, and how will that manifest? Or will the propaganda sources keep them in the dark by showing faked trainload after faked trainload of brown people being dumped just over the border in Nuevo Laredo, never to return? And that will keep them happy enough to not burn the place down in frustration?
At some point, that doesn’t work. If they screw up the country too far, no one will have any money to make the rich richer. Or the country will be in such chaos that there’s nothing to buy if we wanted to. People can’t buy too many consumer goods when they are in death camps.
And as for elections, unless trump goes full dictator and abolishes any remaining pretext of democracy, we had an election during the freaking civil war. We can have them during “emergencies”.
That was the original idea, but the party has been eaten from the inside and MAGA is the party now. The “control” the old guard has is to do what MAGA wants them to do.
I am beginning to wonder if Trump has two lists-The ridiculous list that Congress is supposed to veto (“Gosh, I tried to get you in, but they overruled me!”). And the real list that is still nasty but looks good compared to the first.
That’s far more clever than Trump is capable of. He would never see the need to make two lists, because every single idea he’s ever had is the greatest idea that’s ever been had in the history of ideas and anyone who fails to see that is a hater and a loser.
My guess is never. They had four years of Trump in office and then four years of Trump out of office. If they didn’t figure out they were being conned in all that time, they never will.
They’ve probably reached the point where they don’t want to figure it out. Realizing Trump has been conning them would mean having to admit they’ve been fools all this time and that the people who told them they were fools were right all along.
For once I agree with you. Recall how over the entire duration of his last administration every time he did something obviously stupid or wildly overconfident we were told that it was part of some clever Machiavellian scheme? I heard people say that, over and over, that any time now the secret purpose behind his apparent stupid decisions and positions would be revealed.
And in the end…it turned out that no, there was no secret 5 dimensional chess going on, he really is just as stupid and arrogant as he appears. He’s a bulldozer of stupidity and ego, not a clever schemer.
No, they’re not. They’re in the “How do I win the current election I’m facing” incredibly short term. And the answer to that, thanks to the masses of the Republican base, is now “do Trump’s bidding”. And those who haven’t done his bidding in the last few days or weeks will find out the consequences in the next election.
And also keep in mind that a major chunk of the Republicans are evangelical Christians who think that the end of the world is coming soon, and that there’s no future on Earth to worry about. They genuinely don’t think there’s any point in long term planning or worrying about future consequences.
Well, yes, explicitly so. As far back as the 1980s I recall Jerry Falwell trying to convince Ronald Reagan to launch a nuclear war with the USSR, with the express purpose of inciting them to shoot back so the believers would be Raptured into Heaven before the bombs hit and the rest of us would burn.
And Pence is an End Timer, it’s still going strong.
I really don’t think that, given their behavior for decades has matched them believing it. And assuming that is highly dangerous in any case. Never assume the fanatic with a bomb vest is bluffing.
In that hypothetical, with not much actually happening to the average American, I think conservative media successfully sells the idea that trump has “turned the economy around” and the GOP would be in a good position for reelection.
Remember, the economy is doing well now, so all they have to do initially is stop lying about it and show the real data.
Yes, people will still be annoyed that their corn flakes cost too much, but that will be balanced against likely winners in the new economy. Eg crypto markets have already massively spiked. The average person with nothing will be hearing stories of how this one guy with nothing played the markets and got rich. And they’ll think it essential that taxes stay low for that time that they are that guy.
Of course this is just playing out the hypothetical. I’m still very much in the camp that this will be much worse than trump’s first term.
A while back I made a “they’re saying the quiet stuff out loud” comment. Someone replied “no, this is the stuff they’re saying out loud on purpose, we still don’t know the quiet stuff”.
If you’re talking about the 14th Amendment ineligibility, I happen to agree that Trump should’ve been convicted and excluded from office on that basis. But he wasn’t. He was impeached and not convicted. The system has not found him ineligible, so he was legitimately elected.
However the 22nd Amendment doesn’t require any kind of trial or finding of fact. It’s not that Trump is prohibited from running again, and could simply ignore the prohibition. He simply does not meet basic elegibility. To pull it off, at a minimum he’d have to get a majority of states to put him on the ballot even though he doesn’t meet eligibility requirements, and states aren’t as pliable as Congresscritters.
That’s not to say this entire chain of events is impossible but it requires a truly massive number of actors not to just passively acquiesce, but to collectively decide to shoot the Constitution in the head. The only outcome where he’s President again is a majority of the states simply deciding that the US Constitutional order is over. That’s a much bigger decision than Trump just saying “let’s go for it”. It’s imaginable but I find the possibility extremely remote.
