I’m just curious what the fellow dopers think. What do you think the % chance is that a nuclear bomb will be detonated (not by us for testing purposes) within the United States by anyone, terrorist or nation, within the next 50 years.
Me…I figure an 85% chance one will be used in anger somewhere before I die (assuming I live a decent, normal lifespan which would give me roughly another 50 years). Just a gut check on my part.
FYI: Polling threads (which this is) are done in the IMHO section.
sorry bout that Whack-A, with all the nuke talke on the GQ and GD board I just figured I would throw it up here. I guess they’ll move it if they wanna, but I hope it stays cuz it will get seen more here. I wanna believe it won’t happen but my gut (or my pessimistic nature) tells me the odds are better than 50/50
No need to apologize to me. I don’t care myself. Just letting you know for future reference is all. No harm no foul.
Surveys belong in IMHO–Mods?
The General Questions forum is for questions with factual answers. This is a sort of opinion poll, so I’ll move this thread to IMHO.
5-15% chance. I think we’re more likely to nuke them.
I’m an optimist. So No.
I am more worried about the US nuking someone, but in line with the question asked. If the US continues on its current path, I would give an 100% likelihood of some form of major attack within the next 2 years. Of that, I would say 20% that some form of nuke is used.
In my fantasy world, I would hope that our enemies that are sovereign states would discern that any nuke launched from a submarine or missile against Uncle Sam would result in a swift response completely out of proportion to anything imaginable, resulting in certain and immediate annhilation to the aggressor. Of course, that’s an effective deterrant only against a rational, identifiable enemy.
I suppose a suitcase tactical nuke launched by a terrorist could do quite a bit of damage and cause a lot of confusion. I couldn’t estimate the liklihood of that taking place in my lifetime. I’d like to think something like that could be detected before it’s too late.
If by “we” you mean the continental US or one of it’s territories, I’d say that there’s zero chance of that happening. If by “we” you mean some of our military forces, I’d say 10% or better depending upon how long Kim Il Jong stays in power. The longer he stays in power, the greater our chances are.
I’d say a nuclear device detonated in the US, <1% certainly. Detonated elsewhere in anger, maybe 5%. Most likely around India/Pakistan, one of the former Soviet republics, or maybe even on the Korean penninsula. I would say the realistic chances of the US initiating a nuclear device are so low as to be laughable. YMMV.
I think a “dirty bomb” is far far more likely than what most folks think of when you say “nuke”. There are so many places where radioactive stuff is used that assembling a dirty bomb is likely - old medical equipment like x-ray machines, for instance.
The media yakking about it constantly isn’t helping. It’s like when they kept saying “anthrax” and gosh darn, someone starting mailing envelopes full of it to the talking heads and Congress.
I think the odds of the USA getting nuked depend in large part on what’s happening in N. Korea. I have no doubt that the guy running that place would lob one over to us if he thought he could benefit from it. Or perhaps from petty revenge if he thought he was going down. He’s playing a very dangerous game with the only country that actually HAS used nuclear weapons in warfare.