Survivor 4/18 Predictions. Plus, All-Survivor Survivor!

It’s your weekly Survivor predictions thread, plus an added bonus topic.

First, the predictions:

I think Sean is toast. It’s still the Gang of Four vs. Five Assorted Contestants. John & Co. are the only ones with a plan. The rest of the group could have rebelled last week, but they didn’t. I cannot conceive that the Get-Alongs (V-N-P) and the Go-It-Alones (Sean and Kathy) are going to wake up and smell the blood in the water this week, so I think the bootee is just a matter of who John’s alliance decide to target.

Neleh, and Paschal are at least somewhat comfortable with their former tribemates, so they’re unlikely to vote against the alliance this week. Vecepia is smack dab in the middle, so no reason to kick her. Sean, on the other hand, is a target everyone can hate, and one less voter who is undoubtedly against the alliance. So it’s Goodbye Sean. Never has a contestant deserved the boot more than you.

Next week might be interesting. If the losers finally decide that they don’t want to be losers, they could force the vote into a 4-4 tie. Alternatively, it’s possible (though highly unlikely) that the Gang of Four will decide to jettison John. Either way, next week is the key to the Final Four. Somehow, though, I don’t see the losers making a concerted stand.

Mark Burnet has announced that he’s going to do an All-Survivor Survivor, with contestants from past series mixed and matched to see how they stack up against each other. I’m not sure this is a great idea, but who should be on there if it’s going to make for great TV?

Richard (I): The original. But can he kick it old style?

Elisabeth (II): Just 'cause she’s so damn cute.

Hunter (IV): Should have gone far this time, but got killed by the bad guys.

Lex (III): Pleasant to paranoid, this guy was always worth watching.

Jerri (II): The evil bitch queen returns! But how far will she go now that all the guys have already seen her ta-tas?

Gina (IV): See Hunter (IV).

Rodger (II): Put him and Elisabeth on opposing teams, then see what happens if they merge. Besides, you Rodger is substantively identical to Tom (III), so you get two contestants in one, plus a cuter version of PaschalNeleh.

Mike (II): See Hunter and Gina.

John (IV): Deathmatch with Rich!

Plus, what would really be fun . . . stick Probst and Burnet out there as contestants. Bwahahahahahaha!

I’m going out on a limb and saying buh-bye to Kathy this week. The previews showed that she still isn’t over the whole Zoe thing, so I can see her shooting herself in the foot by not letting it go. If she manages immunity for a second week, then I’ll say Sean.

My dark horse this week is Nele(a)h. If the gang-of-four were smart, they would break up Rodger and Elisabeth. They may be harmless from a challenge standpoint, but a voting block of two that felt threatened might be able to recruit one or two disaffected loners to upset things. Plus, the previews show she has a bug up her butt about something this week.

With regards to an all-star Survivor, I’m wary of it. I don’t think they should do a full season of it, but it might work for a three-to-four week mini-series.

We know these people too well now. I really don’t think naked Rich would do that great. He managed to stay alive during the first series because nobody really knew the game he was playing. But now that it has been analyzed to death, it would be tough for him to find a fresh angle. Same with the other players. There would be way too much contrived drama as a means to revive a sagging career to make for really good reality TV.

That having been said, a shorter series where two to three people get voted off every week, and the producers turn all knobs to eleven could be entertaining.

Aw, yeah, bring on the naked gay guy alliance! Let’s see if they end up bitch-slapping Robnoxious and Spawn on the first round! I don’t see it as a full series either, but the miniseries sounds great! They’d have to come up with new challenges and new rules, though, Somehow, they’d have to surprise them, or it’ll be strategized to death.

Anyways, I’m torn between Kathy and Sean as bootees, but I think it might be Kathy. I don’t see her doing a Kelly and winning back-to-back Immunity Challenges, especially since it’s about time for a challenge that requires strength and speed (the last few have all been something anyone could win, and last week’s challenge was a weak version of the “stand up for a few hours” challenge without benefit of peanut butter (anybody know how long they stood there, anyways?) I think her paranoid ranting and pouting might alienate her from the others more, and if she has a chance to bellow at everyone again, they’ll get rid of her just to escape the sound of that nails-on-the-blackboard voice.

I don’t care for Kathy. She has this “I’m right. Everybody listen to me” attitude, and when she’s put into a position where people have to listen to her (the weaving puzzle and the maze) she proves incompetent. The one time she did well was when she just had to stand still and do nothing. And her paranoia is a bit too much to take. She’s a charicature of some bad real estate agents I’ve met, or of a used-car sales person. She has the peircing gaze that this guy I know has when he’s pulling a scam – er, “making a deal”. (Although Kathy can’t be that bad!) I’m sure she means well, but her personality drives me nuts.

I agree with everyone so far that it will be either Kathy or Sean who is put on the beach (or the hotel, rather) this week. Sean is an athletic young man who can do well in a physical challenge. That means he can win immunity. I think Kathy can be ousted any time. So I think it would be better strategically to vote out Sean.

I don’t know about Kathy or Sean…

Currently, there are really only two active alliances; John/Tammy/Robert/Zoe and Paschal/Neleh. Sean and Vecepia have voted together in the past but I don’t think they can be considered to have an alliance as such. Kathy is on her own.

John has said that he plans to vote off the new Maraamu first; that’s Paschal, Neleh and Kathy.

Let’s assume the original Rotu four have a solid alliance and plan to take themselves into the final four. (Good assumption.)

It would be easy for them to vote off Kathy; she has no allies and they only need to get one person to join with them to be assured that she was out. But, this leaves them facing Sean/Vecepia/Paschal/Neleh. They could easily realize what the Rotu four are up to and could form their own counter-alliance. This makes it four to four and the next tribal council could be decided by the tiebreaker. That’s a bad chance to take.

If they ignore Kathy for the moment and take out one of the other three then they wind up with a 4/3/1 split. In fact, they could easily use Kathy as a wild card against the others. So, I think they will not vote off Kathy.

So, who does get targeted? Sean is the obvious choice; he’s the strongest player outside of their alliance which makes him a danger in the Immunity Challanges.

But, a Paschal/Neleh/Kathy alliance is possible. Kathy was one of the new Maraamu and we know she doesn’t like Zoe, one of the Rotu four. If Sean is voted out then Vecepia may join with them to protect herself (since as the last of the old Maraamu she is another obvious target). This leads to another 4/4 split.

Now, John told Sean & Vecepia that he plans to vote off the new Maraamu first. Suppose he does that to gain their trust. I’ve already explained why they can’t target Kathy. That leaves Paschal or Neleh.

Try this scenario. The Rotu four convince Sean and/or Vecepia to vote for Paschal or Neleh. If even one of them goes along with the plan then that gives them 5 votes and a majority. Paschal or Neleh is out.

At the next council they tell Sean and Vecepia they are voting for whichever of Paschal or Neleh they didn’t vote off or that they are voting for Kathy. They can even make this plan fairly public, even to the target. Since they have already “proven” their intentions at the previous Tribal Council at least one of them will probably go along with the plan.

The Rotu four then vote for Sean or, if he has immunity, Vecepia. Since their public target will obviously not vote for themselves this insures a split vote among the non-Rotu four which guarantees them a majority from that point onward. They can then pick off Kathy, (Paschal or Neleh) and (Sean or Vecepia) at their leisure. They will probably vote off Sean the first time he fails an Immunity Challenge and otherwise vote off the other two in any order. This leaves John/Tammy/Robert/Zoe as the final four.

So, I think the person voted off tonight will either be Paschal or Neleh. I think it will be Paschal if only because he is the leader of the Paschal/Neleh alliance and possibly the only one who could pull the other three together to form a counter-alliance against the Rotu four.

So, Paschal is the first member of the jury. Appropriate, somehow.

This matches my thoughts exactly. Sean goes tonight, unless he wins immunity. If he does, probably Kathy. The Four won’t target N/P/V as long as it seems like they (N/P/V) are going along with their (R4’s) Plan. No reason to rock the boat. The Four only need to win two more councils to be locked in.

However, according to the previews last week, Neleh has some sort of meltdown this week, yelling about being lied to. This could have unforseen consequences. But still, I don’t see it going as far as the five outsiders teaming up against the Four.

Bonus Question: I’m also sceptical. I doubt it would work as a full-length series, for reasons already stated by others. I’ll still watch it, though. My only request: It must have Colleen. (Mmmm!) She’s still my pick for Hottest Survivor Babe Ever.

While there has been several good points made as to why it should not be Kathy-- I still think it will be Kathy based on her vote against Zoe unless they “make up” this week. Kathy’s act is grown old, and now she has proven that she will not go along with old Rotu.

If she shows a sign of playing nice- then Sean goes- too much of a treat for immunity, he is a loud mouthed jerk, and he has ties to V.

Dark horse Neleh- if Neleh and Pascal make it clear that they will not go along or gripe too much about the booting of his “son” they band of four may be forced to strike. But I am sure their preference would be to take those two nitwits to the final 6, THEN dump them. If the random players would actually THINK, they could break up the alliance with ease, S-V-K-N-P would have enough power to give John the boot. Won’t happen of course, but it should if they just thought about it, K-N-P are already together, they just need the other two to join them.


Holy Carp!

ABT just posted their picks, and they don’t agree with any of us.


They think john-boy is going to go tonight.

I’ll believe it when I see it, but ABT is pretty solid, even if it’s thanks to the partial previews Libertarian says they get.

I wonder whether he will smirk at himself.

Hmmm… Actually, I could see that. If Paschal/Neleh, Sean/Vecepa and Kathy do the math they will realize that together they outnumber the Rotu four by 5-4. They also must realize that the Rotu four will pick them off one by one unless they do something.

So, the five of them might get together to launch a pre-emptive strike against the Rotus. It could happen.

Or possibly Robert, Tammy and Zoe recruit Neleh and Paschal into a new alliance and stab John in the back. That’d be risky, though.

I didn’t think they had it in them. Who gave those guys the testicle transplants?

I have a hard time seeing these five votes, cobbled together out of necessity, stick together through the end. They’ll probably vote out one of the Gang of 3/Four next week just so they feel comfortable in their position. (Watch out, Zoe, Kathy’s out for blood.) After that, I suspect the two remaining alliance members should be able to cut a deal, at least to vote out Sean. Paschal clearly dislikes Sean, and Neleh votes with Paschal. You gotta like Paschal and Neleh’s odds at this point, however. They’re the ones who control the game, even if they don’t realize it.

Finally, a Survivor that didn’t have an alliance of four pick off the other six one by one until they were left. Though I would have loved to see Sean go, this makes the game more interesting.

I do believe he was the first Survivor to cry to his mommy that he did the best he could.

On Survivor Survivor, it seems like a cool idea to me. There are a couple of interesting things they could do with it.

  1. Bring back the first four people voted out in the four survivors–those we hardly got to see any of because they got booted so early.

  2. Championship survivor: Bring back a group of 10 Survivors who made the final four, and have them go at it solo from the start.

  3. There are four young and older women, four young and older men in each Survivor. Have Veteran Survivor consist of exclusively the young women from each previous Survivor.

  4. Even better, dump all the previous survivors, and follow Fear Factor: Playmate Survivor.

  5. Ok, fourteen playmates, plus Colleen and Elizabeth.

I think Survivor could work as a half hour daily sydicated show if they made a few small changes–start with a group of ten, play solo from the start, and combine the reward/immunity challenge into a single challenge. Elminate one contestant per day, and have a final vote every other showdown every other Friday. You could even do theme shows this way–say Playmates one set of shows, spokesmodels the next, Electronics convention booth babes the next, etc. Once in a while, just for variety, you could have guys on, too. Nah.

Other interesting variations I think might make things interesting (as opposed, I suppose, to interesting variations that would make things dull):

Start the entire group of 16 in a single camp, but still have team challenges, but with teams chosen randomly for each challenge, then disbanded afterwards.

Have the teams chosen by randomly selecting two captains, and have them choose up sides playground style.

Shared immunity: Instead of being able to give away immunity to another Survivor, the challenge winner can choose one other contestent to whom to grant immunity, ie both get immunity.

Are you happy now Sean? You made John cry.

I’ll admit it. I picked Sean to go and figured there was no way the outsiders could get together right up to the final “checkmate”. The duel between John and Sean made this the best episode so far this season. Loved the kiss exchange.

As everyone has said, now it’ll get interesting. I definitely will want to see if Rob, Tammy, and Zoe stay together or break under pressure. Do Paschal and Neleh plan on staying with tonight’s allies or doubling back to the remaining Gang members? For that matter, what if Kathy or Vecepia steps into John’s now vacant spot?

So much for my prediction of four boring weeks ahead.

As for the idea of veteran Survivor, I can think of several themed teams:

The Dysfunctional Tribe: Brandon, Frank, Jerri, Kathy, Lex, Lindsey, Rob, Sean

The Gray Panther Tribe: BB, Carl, Kim J, Rodger, Rudy, Sonja, Tom

The Popularity Tribe: BB, Deb, Diane, Carl, Gabriel, Kel, Peter, Sonja (first people voted off every tribe)

The No Food Reward Tribe: Alicia, Frank, Gina, Hunter, Michael, Rich, Rob (they will live off other contestants)

The Swedish Bikini Tribe: Amber, Colleen, Elizabeth, Gina, Jerri, Jessie, Kelly, Sarah (their tribe name will also be their uniform)

I went into last night’s show armed with the knowledge about who ABT thought was going. I kept watching for signs that John was in trouble. Hell, for the first half of the show we barely saw him, they kept focusing on Kathy and Sean (classic Survivor ham-handed foreshadowing). Could ABT have been wrong?

Then the immunity challenge came around, and with it the million-dollar arrogance that opened some eyes. You could see it happening. Sure the idea had been planted earlier by Kathy, but Paschal (and therefore Swee’Pea) were sticking to their plan and gunning for Sean. But when the Rotu 4 took such glee in chopping the coconuts (a wonderfully emasculating analogy) of the support players, the breeze changed directions.

You know that a lot went on that we weren’t privy to. We saw a little bit of Humbert and Dolores beginning to see the light, but there must have been more. John didn’t seem totally surprised, did he realize his mistake? I would’ve thought that the minute he got that fourth vote (which meant that either Pappy or the kid switched), he would’ve flashed some sort of emotion, but he was oddly calm.

That’s okay though, I’m sure his mommy is still proud of him.

They should name this season “Stupid Survivor.”

*Maraamu votes off Hunter, one of their strongest players, guaranteeing they won’t win another challenge;
*Rotu votes off a guy they MIGHT not be able to trust, Gabe, over two people they KNOW they can’t trust, evilRob or lazySean;
*Rob’s head is on the chopping block so he goes around all day picking fights thus GUARANTEEING his dismissal;
*In the immunity challenge JohnAlliance shows their hand by voting off players exactly as they had planned to vote them off in the game, thus giving the FIVE remaining members incentive and time to plan an opposing strategy;
*Tammy, instead of giving her immunity to JOHN and throwing a wrench in the Allianceof5’s plan to vote John off, keeps it. Perhaps she thought it complemented her outfit…

AARRGHH! I’ll bet Richard Hatch is screaming at the t.v. Stupid, stupid, stupid!

For some reason, a neuron misfired and I changed the channel before John’s final words. What did he say? Anyone have a transcript?

Here ya go:

That is lifted directly from the CBS website. Barely any of that got onto the air (mainly the parts in bold), and there was some gratuitous blubbering at the end.

Hey John - I don’t know how they do math in Oklahoma, but in these parts 4<5! I couldn’t believe it when they started whacking off Paschal. There were no guarantees last night, but it seems like immunity for one of the 4 was not nearly as important as making sure you voted out at least one of the other 5. And why go out of your way to alienate P/N?

Anyone else think V might be in a pretty strong position right now? If she makes it to the final 2, she doesn’t have the baggage others have with the jury.

Hey John-boy - guess that “special feeling” didn’t last too long. Tho it has been said before, it bears repeating – “Mommy!”

Bottom line - that was a very entertaining hour of TV - especially since on tape it only lasts about 40 mins. I get such a kick out of seeing the attempted machinations, and seeing folk crew up when they think they are being so clever. The one thing I dislike is that, since it is edited as it is, you often get no clue about what the successful folk are doing to be successful. Their actions don’t make for great TV.

Oh yeah - all you Survivor wannabes working on your kitemaking skills? Man, Kathy is annoying, but she sure kicked ass on that challenge. More of a competitor than I expected.

So other than who you THINK will win, who do you WANT to win? I can’t really figure it out myself. Probably Zoe or Robert, but they should not have much of a chance now.