Survivor is on Wednesday this week

The editors double-double-crossed me, dammit! In accordance with 99% of what has gone before on this show, I fully expected that side-conversation between Russell and Tyson to bear no fruit whatsoever…after all, the thing they telegraph in the show itself is NEVER the thing that actually happens, right?

Duh! Tyson snapped for that hook like a tall, gangly, pale, creepy-looking trout. D’oh!

Eh, I’m not so sure he’s stupid, he just made one really stupid mistake. The fact he knows he did it to himself does give him a lot of credit.

The thing is, in the game it is really hard to see the whole picture. I think when looking at it in the edited form we get, it is much clearer. I think that Tyson, not knowing who Russel is really, probably thought his move with Russ was smart.

I see that Coach was not one of the people who voted for Tyson, but I wonder if Russ can pull him fully over to his team now.

I think Russell’s big gesture of handing over the HII publicly at TC was designed solely for the purpose of impressing Coach. Remember the huge advantage Russell has - he’s seen everyone else play the game, and no one has seen him. He wants to show Coach that he’s smart, and he’s a man of his word.

You’d think James might have practiced running a bit before he decided to race JT. Or maybe he knew they had already decided to vote him out, and that was his last ditch effort to show them he was OK, even though he wasn’t.

But— There was NOTHING Tyson could gain from switching his vote. His alliance was set to vote 3 Russell, 3 Parvatie. Russell’s alliance would vote 3 for whoever on the other side. Now Tyson believes Russell will vote Pavarti. So the final vote would be 4 Parvarti, 3 Russell, 2 Whoever. Pavarti goes. What would be gained by changing that vote total to 5 Pavarti, 2 Russell, 2 Whoever?

Not a single damn thing.

OTOH, if Russell was LYING about voting for Parvati – well, we saw how that worked out.

Tyson threw away his stay in the game for nothing more than whatever satisfaction he’d get from being a meaningless “me too” vote in Parvati’s ouster.
OTOH, why didn’t Russell get his alliance to vote Rob??? By getting the other side to ‘waste’ four votes on Parvati his three vote alliance could get rid of ANYONE on the other side. Why not kill the King instead of the Jack?
OT3H – Why didn’t Rob assign Tyson to vote for Parvati from the start? It should have been clear Tyson wanted her gone, and that would have removed any temptation for Tyson to switch on his own volition.
Still, a great episode for thoughtful maneuvering.

You have to wonder if these contestants ever watch the show. How often have we seen carefully laid plans that had a great chance at success foiled by one fool changing votes at the last minute. Had everyone stuck to the plan, Russell would be getting drunk with James as we speak.

Rob had immunity.

Rob had the individual immunity idol

Tyson really wanted Parvatie out. If the immunity idol had not gotten played, it would have been up in the air as to whether it would have been her or Russell going so Tyson decided to jump ship on the plan to make sure she was gone. Not sure how much Russell’s fake out encouraged him to do it, though.

One thing that occurred to me immediately after I watched it but forgot to post is that everyone seems to view the HII as a non-renewable resource. It’s not inconceivable for Russell to find it again and again, effectively being able to use one every single week.

We could see a mad dash for the HII next week simply to keep it out of Russell’s hands. At least, if the villains are smart.

I think Coach remains loyal to Rob by never writing Rob’s name down. I think he could be convinced to write down, say, Sandra’s name. But not Rob’s. I also think Russell’s display has probably earned enough Coach points that Coach won’t write down Russell’s name either. If I’m right, it could end up being a long series of Russell and Rob picking off each other’s allies for several weeks in a row, both up to and after the merge when Russell would likely pick up Parvati’s allies from the heroes’ tribe.

We saw that last season. Remember Dave Ball trailing Russell? And Russell still out-smarted Dave and Laura et al. by doubling back to the stone wall.

Of course Russell outsmarting Dave Ball and Laura is like me trying to outsmart my doorknob.

It makes (some) sense if he thinks that the “2 whoever” votes will flip to votes for Russell. If Russell’s voting for Pavarti, and she figures that out, then she votes for Russell to save herself. The vote could then be 4-4-1 or 4P-5R, so Tyson changing his vote causes Pavarti to go.

Another possible thing Tyson may have been thinking is that he might ingratiate himself to Russell if Russell doesn’t go home. Pavarti goes home and he doesn’t have to say he cast a vote for Russell, which may have benefits longer term, if the power were to shift or if Russell ends up on the jury. This actually makes some sense if he thought he could take Russell at his word.

True, but has there been a case of repeat HII’s being found and used before Russell’s run last season? We’ve seen lots of fake idols, and real idols staying in someone’s possession for a while, but I don’t remember any cases before last season (which the players presumably haven’t seen) where an idol was played, replaced, found again, and played again. If nothing else, it was Russell’s talent at finding them without clues that changed last season’s action. And the first 2 this year were never going to be found without the clue - Russell’s big finds last time were the tree in his own camp, and the bridge that the crew had obviously built. An idol hidden in a random tree 200 yards down the beach isn’t going to be easy to find without the clue.

It’s not going to take long for Rob’s crew to figure out that Tyson changed his vote and that’s what got him booted. And in a larger sense, it’s still Rob-5 Russell-3. The lesson here is simply (a) DO NOT LISTEN TO RUSSELL, and (b) DO NOT DEVIATE FROM THE PLAN. Individual immunity notwithstanding (does the HII pop up again and again reliably, or unpredictably?), it shouldn’t be too hard for the Villains to pick off Russell’s crew, and one whiff of their imminent demise and Parvati would play turncoat in a heartbeat.

Oh, man, how did I forget that? :smack:

Okay, Russell made the proper choice of target.

If I’m Russell, I make subtle or not-so-subtle hints to Rob that someone on his team obviously isn’t on board w/ Rob’s plan. The only people who know that Tyson changed his vote are Tyson and Russell (and maybe Parvati). The others may all claim they voted like they should, but in this game no one can fully trust anyone, and Russell needs to drive that uncertainty wedge between them.

The problem is that Russell’s ego is too big, and I bet he’ll all but tell Rob what happened.

Probst’ Blog is great this season and this week is no less entertaining…

Also, this interview with Tyson is revealing…

Did anyone else see the promo for Heroes vs Villains tonight during the basketball game?

It was for the Season Debut, on Feb 11 tonight.

I’m confused – it’s March 26 today. Did you (or someone) unwittingly traverse a wormhole?