It’s encouraging that the polls are continuing to drift Biden-ward, but as repeatedly noted they only matter if the election is free and fair, the voting machines don’t get hacked, mail-in ballots aren’t discarded and no active intimidation occurs at the polls. Sadly, all of those things are not only possibly but quite likely.
Somebody on twitter this morning observed that we are witnessing the greatest organized effort in voter suppression in the history of the country. Ratfuckery in the Pennsylvania legislature, fake ballot boxes in California, roll purging in multiple states and Russian hacking of the systems, we seem to have it all in spades.
That might all be hyperbole. But a fully developed, mature democracy shouldn’t have to worry about all this stuff at all. Republicans are going the way of minority authoritarian parties in corrupt third world nations.
Whoever might be involved in that must be purely interested in a local race (possible) or too stupid for words. From either side. Because Biden is going to win CA in a blue tsunami and there is very little anyone can do to influence that. He’s variously up ~25-40% here and Hillary Clinton won CA with a 30% margin, the highest since 1936. I suspect Biden will better that, probably handily, possibly setting a new record.
The only thing that might suppress votes in CA is people being lazy because they are sure Biden is winning CA.
I don’t really expect a lot of too-lazy-don’t-vote people. There are lots of people who’ve been anxiously waiting 4 years to vote against the orange Twit(terer) and they’re going to vote for sure, even if they have to walk barefoot over hot coals. And they outnumber the hard core Tumpists by a fair amount.
Ohio voter here. My wife and I received our absentee ballots in the mail last week. We are also in a county that was impacted by a large number of ballots being incorrectly printed but ours are okay. However, we have both decided to go to the county early voting location and turn in our blank paper absentee ballots and vote early in person at a machine. Although technically both are considered absentee, we feel more confident that there is less chance of GOP bullshit taking away our vote by removing the paper absentee ballot from the equation. Early votes are tabulated in advance so our result will also be included in the results on election night.
from what I can see, if fl or oh can be called for biden on election night it is basically over for trump.
Trump's campaign claimed that the canceled reservations were a result of its confidence he’ll win those states.
"President Trump and his campaign are extremely confident about our chances in these states.
Sound like someone in 2016? Not that I am expecting Biden to win Ohio.
He really could. Both Bill Clinton (by pluralities) and Barack Obama (by outright majorities) did.
And see:
I didn’t know whether to put this in the 538 thread or this one but Fivethirtyeight has an interesting piece out today where they contacted 21 major pollsters to find out how they have changed their methodologies since 2016.
TL/DR version: some have adjusted their weighting for education and some have changed the way they go about contacting voters. Most are still worried about undercounting likely Trump voters somewhat but only one said that they were still worried about missing significant numbers of “shy Trump” voters.
My takeaway from the piece is that the polls may still be overstating the Biden leads – Nate Silver has written before that state polls historically average about a 5% margin of error – but that his leads, already better than Hillary’s, are also statistically firmer than her’s were.
We’re reaching the point anyway (one of our posters is tracking this somewhere in this forum) where Biden wins even if you subtract five points from every statewide lead he currently has. And I don’t think they’re going to be five points off next month.
I’ve noted this before: the nytimes has a chart where they adjust current state polls by the error rate from 2016 and a few weeks ago Biden passed the 270 EC threshold. That makes me feel much better.
Three weeks to go! At least 10.6 million people have already voted.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Alaska Survey Research | 676 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 4% |
| Arizona | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 296 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 9/28/2020 - 10/5/2020 | HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 1% |
| Arizona | 10/3/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Data Orbital | 550 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 9/28/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Latino Decisions | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 3% |
| Arizona | 9/29/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Ipsos | 633 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| Arizona | 10/4/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 727 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 10/6/2020 - 10/8/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1087 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 4% |
| Arizona | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1144 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| Colorado | 10/1/2020 - 10/6/2020 | SurveyUSA | 1021 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 10% |
| Colorado | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 837 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 14% |
| Florida | 9/23/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Cherry Communications | 604 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 9/27/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Saint Leo University | 489 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Florida | 9/27/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Saint Leo University | 489 LV | Kamala D. Harris 47% | Mike Pence 47% | R + 0% |
| Florida | 9/27/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Saint Leo University | 500 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| Florida | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 560 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Florida | 10/1/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1256 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 11% |
| Florida | 10/4/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 998 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 9/29/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Ipsos | 678 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Florida | 10/6/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 3% |
| Florida | 10/9/2020 - 10/10/2020 | Florida Atlantic University | 644 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 4% |
| Florida | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 4785 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 10/10/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Emerson College | 690 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 2% |
| Georgia | 9/27/2020 - 10/6/2020 | University of Georgia | 1106 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/7/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Landmark Communications | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 2% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/9/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 528 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1837 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 2% |
| Iowa | 10/1/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1205 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Iowa | 10/3/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Civiqs | 756 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% |
| Iowa | 10/6/2020 - 10/9/2020 | YouGov | 1035 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | Even |
| Maine | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Critical Insights | 500 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 11% |
| Maine | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Critical Insights | 466 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 11% |
| Maine CD-1 | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Critical Insights | 243 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 32% |
| Maine CD-1 | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Critical Insights | 232 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% | Donald Trump 30% | D + 32% |
| Maine CD-2 | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Critical Insights | 248 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 9% |
| Maine CD-2 | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Critical Insights | 234 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 8% |
| Maryland | 9/29/2020 - 10/1/2020 | Change Research | 650 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 29% |
| Maryland | 9/30/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Goucher College | 776 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 30% | D + 31% |
| Michigan | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 676 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 9/29/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Ipsos | 709 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 10/4/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 700 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 10/6/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Emerson College | 716 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 11% |
| Michigan | 9/30/2020 - 10/8/2020 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1134 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 10/6/2020 - 10/9/2020 | YouGov | 1190 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1710 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 10/6/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 614 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 8% |
| Minnesota | 10/1/2020 - 10/6/2020 | SurveyUSA | 929 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 7% |
| Minnesota | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 898 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Missouri | 9/28/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 2% |
| Missouri | 9/24/2020 - 10/7/2020 | YouGov | 931 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 9% |
| Montana | 9/30/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Data for Progress | 737 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 6% |
| Montana | 10/5/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Emerson College | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 13% |
| Montana | 10/9/2020 - 10/10/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 798 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 6% |
| Nebraska CD-2 | 10/1/2020 - 10/4/2020 | FM3 Research | 450 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 11% |
| Nevada | 10/2/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 660 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 6% |
| Nevada | 10/6/2020 - 10/9/2020 | YouGov | 1036 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 6% |
| Nevada | 10/7/2020 - 10/11/2020 | WPA Intelligence (WPAi) | 512 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 2% |
| New Hampshire | 10/1/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Saint Anselm College | 1147 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 12% |
| New Jersey | 9/30/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | 582 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 15% |
| New Jersey | 9/30/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | 736 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 17% |
| North Carolina | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 396 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | East Carolina University | 1232 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 9/30/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Data for Progress | 1285 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| North Carolina | 9/29/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Ipsos | 601 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even |
| North Carolina | 10/4/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 938 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1993 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| Ohio | 10/2/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 661 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 1% |
| Ohio | 9/30/2020 - 10/8/2020 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1009 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 2% |
| Ohio | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 2283 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 3% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 468 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/1/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1211 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 13% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/4/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Emerson College | 688 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/4/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 927 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/30/2020 - 10/8/2020 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1140 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/5/2020 - 10/9/2020 | Whitman Insight Strategies | 517 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 2610 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 8% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/6/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Ipsos | 622 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/6/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Ipsos | 622 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 6% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/10/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1034 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% |
| South Carolina | 9/24/2020 - 9/28/2020 | GBAO | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 5% |
| South Carolina | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 903 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 12% |
| Texas | 9/27/2020 - 10/2/2020 | EMC Research | 848 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | Even |
| Texas | 9/25/2020 - 10/4/2020 | YouGov | 908 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% |
| Texas | 9/30/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Data for Progress | 1949 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% |
| Texas | 10/3/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Civiqs | 895 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 48% | Even |
| Texas | 10/5/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 1000 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 7% |
| Texas | 10/7/2020 - 10/8/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 721 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 49% | D + 1% |
| Texas | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 3455 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 2% |
| Washington | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | SurveyUSA | 591 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 21% |
| West Virginia | 9/29/2020 - 9/30/2020 | Triton Polling & Research | 525 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 18% |
| Wisconsin | 9/30/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Marquette University Law School | 700 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 5% |
| Wisconsin | 9/30/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Marquette University Law School | 805 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 5% |
| Wisconsin | 10/2/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Change Research | 442 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 10/4/2020 - 10/7/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 688 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% |
| Wisconsin | 9/30/2020 - 10/8/2020 | Baldwin Wallace University | 883 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 10/2/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 1067 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 10/6/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Ipsos | 577 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 10/6/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Ipsos | 577 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 789 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% |
One thing to keep in mind is that national polls were actually pretty accurate in the end. It was the state polling that made the race difficult to predict, and it was the state results that surprised pundits and the press.
There was always the possibility of a shocking conclusion in 2016 - that was never discounted as a possibility. The state-level uncertainty in polling is why Trump had a 30-35% chance of winning entering the final week. There is still that possibility in 2020, but it’s a little less likely than it was then.
One thing working against Trump is that he has never expanded his base. He is counting on his base to participate. All indications are that they will, but most political campaign strategists would also never want to rely on those voters completely. And yet, save for the stray voter here and there who is just allergic to careerist politicians, democrats, brown skin, or whatever, Trump is heavily dependent on that base – even more so than he was in 2016. There will be fewer voters ‘coming back home.’
Working in Trump’s favor is the fact that Joe Biden is perceived as older, more feeble, and a political careerist with no ideological backbone. However, this has actually worked to Biden’s advantage. Biden has remained viable largely on the basis of anti-Trump outrage. He hasn’t really needed to be all that ideological. Whereas some of the Bernistas in 2016 said “Screw it, I’m gonna sit back and watch this shit burn down,” even a lot of these voters now realize you can only set yourself on fire so many times. It hurts, after all.
These are bad polls for Trump -and yet, it’s still too early to write a eulogy for his presidency.
The only thing that is going to make me feel better is if Biden and the Democrats win by outstanding, huge majorities. The Trumpists are going to pull out all the stops on trying to destroy the democratic process, and to throw out votes and get states to overturn a Biden win. Biden is going to have to win many swing states by VERY large margins to stop them.
This Real Clear Politics page of the top 6 battleground states is certainly making me feel better today.
Average spread for the 6 is Biden +4.9, the highest it’s been since Aug 6 and trending up. Pennsylvania and Michigan are at Biden +7.0
Again, this needs to be an absolute blow-out election for me to feel safe. No close contests. House seats need to be increased. Senate needs to flip- and in a big way. I want to see 52;48 in the senate at least.
The only way the country can move forward is if Trump is repudiated bigly by the voters. Only then will the cowardly politicians suddenly forget that they ever knew Trump, and hope to God that everyone else forgets their sucking up to Trump. Only then can Trump be relegated to the dustbin of history.
Apropos of nothing… I recently came across a reference to this Congressman, and only wish that Nelson “Rocky” Rockefeller had the chance to pick him as his running mate.
Related to that, from a book 1968 - The Year That Rocked the World
On March 22 Rockefeller had announced that he was not a candidate. His mishandling of the 1968 campaign when he had everything in his favor meant the undoing of Rockefeller’s career, which in turn meant the orphaning of the liberal wing of the Republican Party. With the exception of one desperate hour when Rockefeller himself served as unelected president Gerald Ford’s vice president after Nixon resigned in disgrace, the Republican Party has never again turned to a politician from its moderate wing for president or vice president. 1968 was the year in which the Republican Party became a far more ideological party—a conservative party in which promising moderates have been marginalized
GHWB was considered a moderate in 1980 when Reagan picked him.
I’m curious about something and hoping someone here can help. We’ve seen a much larger than normal turnout for early voting, where it’s allowed. We also know (or strongly suspect based on previous polls and data) that Democrats and Biden supporters appear to be turning out strongly in early voting compared to Republicans and Trump supporters.
So my question is this: do pollsters take this effect into account? I’m assuming (possibly in error) if I’m on a call list for a poll about who I’m supporting for POTUS that because I’ve already voted, that means the data on who I support wouldn’t be used, since I’m not a likely voter, as I’ve already voted. Would that mean that if Biden supporters are more likely to vote early, that Biden’s lead in various polls should shrink as the election approaches?
From what I understand, if you tell a pollster that you’ve already voted, your responses are recorded, and you are listed as a “very likely voter” for their records.
They are more worried about a couple close congressional races, and the idea is “Biden won thru fraud! Massive election fraud! Ballot harvesting! Fake ballot boxes!”. (GOP: “well, yes, we committed the fraud, but so?” )