That article illustrates how much better the GOP is at messaging than the Democrats. The number of people interviewed in that article who refer to Biden as a socialist or communist is ridiculous. Seriously low information voters there.
Spoiler alert: it’s Georgia
I just came here to say that. Motherfucking GEORGIA is turning blue.
Don’t let up, y’all. We need this to be a 1984-style blowout.
Only Iowa to go before we get to Texas 
. I’m crossing my fingers and toes hoping it gets there.
The Trumpers now need to beat the poll forecast, and flip the following states to win:
Georgia
and Ohio
and North Carolina
and Florida
and Pennsylvania
And keep their slim lead in
Iowa
and Texas
Trump needs to win all 7 of these states to get to 370. And he’s behind in 5 of them. Republicans have already given up TV advertising in Ohio and Iowa.
I haven’t checked our math, but I sure hope you meant 270
Whoops, yes.
Technically Maine 2nd district is before Iowa in the snake chart (at least right now, sometimes these move, esp 49/51 type places)
Brian
I can’t believe Georgia went to blue. Great news.
Mind-blowing. 538 had Georgia 70/30 for Trump just a month and a half ago.
I’m pretty sure everyone understands this, but I’ll state it explicitly in the thread so there is no confusion…
Georgia, in the 538 forecast, is the palest shade of blue. 538 is not now predicting that Biden is going to win Georgia. The model indicates that it is, ever so slightly, more likely that Biden wins Georgia than Trump.
I assume the 538 forecast for Georgia is looking at polls only, and not factoring in the 100% chance of Brian Kemp and GOP Sec. of State fuckery.
This is a good point. I’m not 100% sure that Georgia is going to have a free and fair election, or has had one in the last few cycles.
Florida too.
Not what you’re talking about but still not just polls.
Which I don’t get since the pollsters factor that in so it sort of double dips don’t it?
The shift to 51% Biden was on the +7 Biden Quinnipiac poll.
As to the last sentence, they’re actually high information voters. They’ve been stuffed full of information. The problem is it’s all false.
The core problem is the ability of both professional traditional media and amateur social media to sell BS as truth. And for professional social media to be by far the worst of the three.
Does this github project factor in with relevant data, and can it be parsed in a way that can be reliably interpreted? If you scroll to the bottom it just flat out says how many of each party have cast votes already and how many requested ballots.
Pollsters factor demographics to make sure that their sample matches the population (or to adjust their sample results to match the population). 538 is using demographics in a slightly different way, I think - combining the polling with the election results you would expect from a state with the demographics of Georgia.
They do more than that. See the recent 538 article on just the recent changes pollsters have made, fine tuning who is in fact a likely voter based on hosts of factors, weighting accordingly.
That Georgia poll also has the Democrat running in the senate special election ahead of the pile. That particular race has some notoriety because it’s basically been treated as a Republican primary thus far between the appointed incumbent senator Kelly Loefler (who had that insider trading scandal at the start of Covid) and House Rep. Doug Collins. They’re both trying to out-MAGA each other which may have opened the door for the Democrat who is pastor Reverend Raphael Warnock of Ebenezer Baptist Church (MLK’s church).
He would need 50% to avoid a run-off however so even though he’s ahead in that poll he has a lot of work to do. The split republican vote is a huge advantage now.
Let’s hope he makes good use of it!