So true!
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Wisconsin all have something in common: a terrible history of attempted voter suppression. Voters know it, and they’re doing every thing they possibly can to make damn sure they don’t get fucked again. The efforts by Trump and local government officials to suppress votes and mail-in voting might actually be backfiring - bigly.
Despite my persistent pessimism and cynicism, there are times when Americans get kicked in the teeth one too many times and finally wake up and realize it - this might be one of those times. I hope so.
ProPublica and The Guardian have set up a mail-in ballot tracker for the swing states! It’s tracking how many mail-in ballots were requested, how many returned, and how many were rejected, along with party affiliations:
They talk about Guilford county in that article, but it’s not the worst. Right now Robeson county has 9% of the mail in ballots rejected, Both of them are on a list of counties that reject ballots at rates far above the statewide average. Robeson county is home to the UNC Pembroke campus which; while not a HBCU (Historically Black College and University), does have a student body composed of 60% people of color.
Guilford county is home to North Carolina A&T State University, which is the largest HBCU in the United States.
Welp…
And here’s a piece in today’s fivethirtyeight exploring how Trump is keeping this election disturbingly close. The highlights:
- Trump has increased his overall share of the black and hispanic vote (especially younger males in those demographics)
- He has inched upward among white college educated whites(I did not see this coming)
The flip side is that Biden is outperforming Hillary in virtually every other demographic and the gender gap is the widest in recent history (women are voting Dem by 25 points, men Republican by three). Here’s a piece offering explanations for that, imo, very important trend.
Yeah, the polls I’m reading this morning indicate that while Biden is ahead, it’s not the blowout that many polls have suggested.
I’ll say it again in case it hasn’t been emphasized enough: just getting a projected 270+ votes on election night won’t be enough; Biden needs to win decisively, or this republic is in serious, serious trouble. He doesn’t necessarily need the race called on election night (though that would certainly be nice and helpful), but Biden needs to win decisively once results are declared in the day or two afterward. Trump will try to wrest the election away from voters - of that we can almost be sure.
Unfortunately, he may be able to do that with raw vote count, but Electoral College count does not reflect vote count. Namely, he could have blowouts in Big Blue states, and come within 1 vote in contested states, but still lose those states in Electoral College voting. (All the more reason to get rid of it!)
Just a (likely unreliable) datapoint, but we had a phone call w/ our financial advisor this morning. He wanted to touch base, just to discuss eventualities around the election - wanted to make sure we weren’t caught unaware.
His impression was that the markets were behaving as tho they were increasingly anticipating a Biden win AND a Dem takeover of the Senate. Won’t get into it in any detail (as I don’t understand much about the markets/investments myself), but I took that as a positive hint.
As of two days ago 538 was estimating a roughly 70% chance at a Dem trifecta (link goes to a four and half minute video clip ). That’s a long way from a certainty and much of the uncertainty is from the Senate. But for many folks playing the market those are definitely betting odds.
Yeah - he was just making sure we were aware of the possibility of some downward adjustment should that happen, w/ additional uncertainty w/in the year depending on a Dem agenda. Doesn’t think it will be huge or permanent, but could be 5-10% (just this one guy’s assessment).
If you look at the history of stock markets after presidential elections, the market generally does better under D administrations than R. But there’s often a couple month sell-off immediately after the D is elected. It’s like the R fatcats steering the market can’t learn.
Makes for a pretty foolproof trade if you’re quick.
Interesting Politico piece here about (1) Trump losing ground with college educated suburban white men and (2) how much of this election is based on Trump’s general unlikability. Like the drunk at the bar, he just won’t shut up and people are tired of hearing from him after four years.
An interesting nugget from that piece: college educated white men had the highest percentage of third party voting of any other demographic in 2016. As someone who has spent many hours on male-dominated message boards (maybe that’s most of them?), I very much believe that.
Georgia is back to red on 538’s snake chart, but Ohio is blue. (They are basically 50/50 states right now)
Looking at Ohio forecast history, the lines have crossed several times.
Brian
Yeah, I noticed that on 538. The race appears to be tightening just a bit, although Biden is still comfortably in the lead (so far). My guess is that Fox’s trumpeting of the Hunter nonsense has swayed a few votes.
Which seems odd to me. My understanding is that there are very few undecided at this point. Are people really that fickle that they change their votes weekly?
Two weeks to go. I’m not going to include SurveyMonkey polls anymore because they put so much stuff out that they drown everything else out. You can find them at the ‘source’ link at the bottom of this page if you’re interested. They would have contributed another 700 rows to this table. This week!
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Moore Information | 504 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 17% |
| Alaska | 9/30/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Patinkin Research Strategies | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 3% |
| Alaska | 10/9/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 423 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 45% | R + 6% |
| Arizona | 9/23/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Targoz Market Research | 1045 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 1% |
| Arizona | 10/4/2020 - 10/8/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 608 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 10/4/2020 - 10/8/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 608 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| Arizona | 10/9/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 502 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 10/9/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 502 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Arizona | 10/9/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 502 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| Arizona | 10/7/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Ipsos | 667 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 10/7/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Ipsos | 667 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| Arizona | 10/13/2020 - 10/16/2020 | YouGov | 1074 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| Arizona | 10/16/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Data Orbital | 550 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 5% |
| Arkansas | 10/11/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Hendrix College | 647 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 34% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 24% |
| Colorado | 10/5/2020 - 10/9/2020 | YouGov | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 9% |
| Colorado | 10/8/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 519 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 15% |
| Colorado | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Civiqs | 1013 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 12% |
| Colorado | 10/9/2020 - 10/15/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% |
| Colorado | 10/12/2020 - 10/16/2020 | RBI Strategies & Research | 502 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 17% |
| Florida | 10/4/2020 - 10/8/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| Florida | 10/7/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Clearview Research | 550 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 7% |
| Florida | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 3% |
| Florida | 10/11/2020 - 10/12/2020 | St. Pete Polls | 2215 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| Florida | 10/11/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1051 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 2% |
| Florida | 10/7/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Ipsos | 653 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| Florida | 10/7/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Ipsos | 653 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| Florida | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Harris Insights & Analytics | 965 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 48% | Even |
| Florida | 10/12/2020 - 10/16/2020 | University of North Florida | 863 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Data for Progress | 782 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 46% | Even |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1040 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Georgia | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | SurveyUSA | 677 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| Georgia | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 759 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 45% | Even |
| Georgia | 10/17/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Emerson College | 506 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Hawaii | 10/2/2020 - 10/7/2020 | MRG Research | 988 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 28% | D + 33% |
| Indiana | 10/8/2020 - 10/13/2020 | SurveyUSA | 685 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 7% |
| Iowa | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Data for Progress | 822 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Iowa | 10/10/2020 - 10/13/2020 | David Binder Research | 200 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 6% |
| Kentucky | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 17% |
| Louisiana | 10/4/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1048 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 18% |
| Maine | 10/2/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Pan Atlantic Research | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 11% |
| Maine CD-1 | 10/2/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Pan Atlantic Research | 300 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 18% |
| Maine CD-2 | 10/2/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Pan Atlantic Research | 300 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Civiqs | 543 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 10/7/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Ipsos | 620 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 10/7/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Ipsos | 620 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 10/8/2020 - 10/13/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1025 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 1% |
| Michigan | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Harris Insights & Analytics | 1289 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 11% |
| Michigan | 10/18/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 900 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% |
| Minnesota | 10/10/2020 - 10/13/2020 | David Binder Research | 200 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 11% |
| Minnesota | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Change Research | 1021 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% |
| Missouri | 10/14/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Remington Research Group | 1010 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 6% |
| Montana | 9/14/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Montana State University Bozeman | 1615 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 7% |
| New Hampshire | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% |
| New Hampshire | 10/9/2020 - 10/12/2020 | University of New Hampshire | 899 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 12% |
| New Jersey | 10/7/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Stockton University | 721 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 20% |
| North Carolina | 10/7/2020 - 10/11/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 10/7/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | SurveyUSA | 669 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 10/7/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Ipsos | 660 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 10/7/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Ipsos | 660 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 48% | Even |
| North Carolina | 10/9/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 627 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Civiqs | 1211 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 10/13/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Emerson College | 721 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | Even |
| North Carolina | 10/12/2020 - 10/17/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 706 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 10/12/2020 - 10/17/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 646 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 10/12/2020 - 10/17/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 706 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 10/12/2020 - 10/17/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 646 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | East Carolina University | 1155 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| Ohio | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Civiqs | 586 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 3% |
| Ohio | 10/8/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1160 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% |
| Ohio | 10/18/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Civiqs | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/7/2020 - 10/12/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/12/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 3% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Harris Insights & Analytics | 992 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/13/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1041 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Ipsos | 653 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Ipsos | 653 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Pennsylvania | 10/18/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| South Carolina | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Data for Progress | 801 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 9% |
| South Carolina | 10/9/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 605 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 8% |
| Texas | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Data for Progress | 933 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% |
| Virginia | 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 | Cygnal | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% |
| Virginia | 10/9/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Cygnal | 607 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% |
| Virginia | 9/30/2020 - 10/12/2020 | Reconnect Research/Roanoke College | 602 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 15% |
| Virginia | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Civiqs | 1231 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 13% |
| Washington | 10/14/2020 - 10/15/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 610 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 23% |
| West Virginia | 10/1/2020 - 10/6/2020 | Research America Inc. | 450 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 14% |
| Wisconsin | 10/8/2020 - 10/11/2020 | Civiqs | 560 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 8% |
| Wisconsin | 10/10/2020 - 10/13/2020 | David Binder Research | 200 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 10% |
| Wisconsin | 10/11/2020 - 10/13/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1043 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% |
| Wisconsin | 10/13/2020 - 10/16/2020 | YouGov | 1112 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Wisconsin | 10/14/2020 - 10/16/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1051 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% |
| Wisconsin | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Ipsos | 663 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% |
| Wisconsin | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Ipsos | 663 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 6% |