What states will be “swing states” this time around?
I don’t know but I can’t live in a swing state as I have a bit of vertigo, and lets not even talk about the swinger states that’s just creepy.
The usual suspects.
538 has good info on what the swing states were in 2008 and how they’d end up going, but I think it is too early to predict right now.
I don’t think some of the narrow wins in 2008 are realistic this time around. Virginia, North carolina and Indiana seem virtually impossible now.
Swing states will be Ohio, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa. That is my guess.
Those are only states Bush won in 2004, why not New Hampshire and Wisconsin for starters?
Those are also 6 states Obama won in 2008 though (8 if you include NH and WI).
I think New Hampshire in 2000 was a fluke (FWIW if Gore had won that state in 2000 he would’ve been president). And with the advent of the tea party I think more of the moderate GOPers in NH will move further to the left. Obama carried NH by 9 points in 2008. He had Wisconsin by 14 points. They were swing states in 2004, but not in 2008.
I get the impression that the growing youth and latino vote changed the electorate a bit from 2004 to 2012, plus I think the growing of the tea party alienates conservatives who aren’t in the south or west (so I think that’ll help the dems in WI or NH). Maybe not in a massive amount, but it plays a role. Then again the right will have more energy in 2012, plus all the voting restrictions will give them an advantage.
Iowa in about 4 of the last 5 presidential elections has gone dem. It going red in 2004 was kindof a historical fluke over the last 20 years. But I think it would be in play this year too.
So all in all, I don’t know. Best bet is to wait until 538 does the math with all the polling data before anyone knows for sure.
I agree that Indiana is pretty much a lost cause this time around (and Obama’s win there was really kind of a fluke in 2008). And he can write off Virginia too. But he still has some hope in North Carolina, which by southern standards is a fairly moderate state with quite a few liberal enclaves. If he really dedicated himself to it, he could still squeak out a win there.
Why write off Virginia? They went very hard right in the last election. You don’t think they might have some buyers remorse this time around? Not enough overreach from the McDonnell and Cuccinelli? I’m not judging just generally curious how the polling is working out.
I’d argue that New Mexico is less of a swing state and more of a bellwether. The only time New Mexico went for the loser was in 2000.
Besides, while I love the place, with only five electoral votes hitting it hard only makes sense as part of a 50-state strategy.
Scott Walker has Wisconsin wrapped up for Obama.
I’d have reversed those two. Virginia has such large and growing communities in the north near DC-- they’ve really changed the voting demographics of the state drastically in the last twenty years, while North Carolina is still quite red outside of a few cities. Virginia went for Obama with a six point margin in 2008, while North Carolina squeaked by with only a third of a percent, the narrowest Obama margin of victory in the country.
North Carolina may be deep red outside the large cities, but I think that is the common situation in most midwestern and southern states. I think virtually all large cities are liberal now because they are populated by non-white minorities and white liberals, who generally make up a majority of the voting population in large cities. I’ve heard the same argument about Pennsylvania, outside the large cities it is a pretty red state. But the large cities are big enough to push the popular vote into the blue category.
North Carolina has supposedly seen a lot of grown in areas like Raleigh-Durham or Charlotte, so maybe that’ll push it further left. But I don’t know if it’ll give them 51% of the vote anytime soon. People have said the same thing about Georgia (that Atlanta will become big enough and liberal enough to change the outcome of state wide elections), but I’m not holding my breath.
I just don’t see any reason to hope NC will go blue this time around. Bush won it by 14 points, Obama won it by a fraction of one point.
I’ve never heard anyone claim that before, but looking at the 2008 returns it doesn’t seem impossible within the next twenty or thirty years. Obama lost Georgia by only about 5%, which is much smaller than many other southern states like SC (9%), LA (18%), MS (13%), and AL (21%). 2008 was a very strong Democratic year, and I don’t doubt that Obama will have a worse showing in Georgia in 2012 than in 2008, but Georgia does seem to be within the Democrats’ reach in the middle-to-distant future.
Depends on the black turn out because that was where most of Obama’s support in Georgia came from - primarily Fulton, Dekalb, and Clayton counties. Those 3 counties alone provided Obama with 1/3 of the total vote in Georgia.
Sure, naturally. 2008 probably represented a best-case scenario for the Democrats; they had massive dissent against the Republicans combined with the first major black presidential candidate. Still, it suggests that if the current demographic trends continue, the Democrats may be able to pick off Georgia in strong Democratic years.
One big question is whether the youth vote is actually growing, or if 2008 was just an anomaly in that regard.
And I’ve heard a lot about how Obama’s win in North Carolina was due to demographic shifts in the state, and those shifts are ongoing, so it’s not out of the question that it might be in play again. The same might go for Virginia, too.
Another big question is whether the Democrats will be able to make the accusation stick that the Republicans are trying to destroy Social Security. If they can convince enough voters of that, it could make a big difference in Florida and Arizona.
Florida swings! 
What do you mean by the youth vote growing? The youth vote is constantly in flux with young voters being middle aged voters 20 years down the road. However I have read millennials (born 1978/1982-2000) tend to lean heavily democratic, as opposed to some other generations (like the generation that came of political age during carter and reagan, who leaned republican by 20 points in 1980).
As far as the millennial vote, it was pivotal for Obama in 2008. Obama won the popular vote by 9 million, and millennials were about 20% of the electorate. But about 7 million of those 9 million net votes were from millennials. And I think they are supposed to be closer to 25-30% of the electorate by 2012, and up to 40% in 2020 as more become first time voters and more first time voters remain steady voters.
But I don’t know if they will keep their dem leanings. I’m guessing so, but maybe not as strong as in 2008 when they went for Obama by 30 points. But I don’t see people born in the 1980s voting en masse for the contemporary republican party anytime soon. Beliefs among people under 30 about race relations, renewable energy, science, economics, education, etc probably aren’t that in sync with the tea party GOP which is largely a movement of 50+ year old whites.
Medicare isn’t SS, but it is a big retirement program people depend on. And Obama discussed raising the age to 67 to win GOP support. Which is a terrible idea for a long list of reasons (many people who can retire choose not to until they are medicare eligible, the medicare expenses of 65-67 year old are not that high, the high expenses come when people are 80+, covering medical costs for 65-67 year olds will cost more in private spending than medicare costs in public spending, etc). But if the dems talk about the GOP being willing to destroy SS and medicare the GOP will hit back that the dems were willing to harm medicare too.
If your idea of “swing” is Lawrence Welk, then yeah.
Yes, the youth vote is constantly in flux. I meant the current youth vote (which is not the same set of people as when Obama was elected). Though either way is a valid question, I suppose.
That is to say: The folks who were in college in 2008 were unusually motivated that year, compared to past crops of college students, and that high motivation was one of the factors that pushed Obama over the top. Will the current college students have similarly high turnout rates, or will they revert to the previous pattern of student apathy?