There is a convergence of technology now that is going to make these things a success, either this time around or very soon:
[ul]
[li]Battery Technology - you can now make them small enough to be easy to carry, with a reasonable battery life.[/li][li]Wireless Networks - This is the biggie. Having a wireless network means you can surf the net from the couch. Or walk around the office and access your files. Or doctors can go from bed to bed and keep their charts with them. It also becomes easy to synchronize your documents. Walk into the office in the morning, and your tablet automatically compares the files in your briefcase and synchronizes them. When you walk into the house at the end of the day, it synchronizes to your home PC. Your work and personal documents can always be with you.[/li][li]Screen technology - Affordable touch screens that are bright, have wide viewing angles, high resolution, and reasonable size.[/li][li]The Internet - many people use their computers almost entirely for web surfing and E-mail. And web surfing doesn’t generally require much in the way of a keyboard, unless you are posting to a message base like this. My keyboard is in a slide-out tray under my desk, and sometimes I can go for an hour or two without even having to slide it out. For browsing news, you don’t need a keyboard. And handwriting recognition is good enough for doing simple things like entering a search term at Google.[/li][/ul]
I don’t know if this precise iteration will be the successful one - they are still too expensive, too big, and too heavy.
What I want is a tablet PC that weighs no more than 2 lbs, is about the size of a hardcover book but only 1 inch thick, and has a 10" display with 300 dpi instead of 72 dpi. I want this thing to have built-in wireless networking, MP3 and video playback, and a little slot for cheap, throwaway RAM cards that can be used to distribute things like records and E-books. And I want it to cost under $1000.
We’re probably 5 years away from that machine. But it will be hugely successful when it finally arrives. And once something like that is available, you’ll start to see a real growth in things like E-books.
I want to be able to walk up to a vending machine, drop in a buck, and get a little ram chip the size of a stick of gum, which contains a couple of songs, today’s newspaper, or a magazine. I want that magazine to be a full color, 300dpi digitized version of the print magazine.
Oh, and I don’t want publishers to screw around with my digital rights. I had better be able to copy that magazine into my permanent storage system at home so I can read it again in ten years.