Facts aren’t determined by popular consent, though. And everything we’ve disagreed over…cryonics, feasibility of self replicating robots, feasibility of AI, feasibility of brain emulation, feasibility of nanotechnology, feasibility of redirecting asteroids…are supported by the facts and most credible people (scientists and engineers) agree that all of these things are at least feasible. Albeit super hard, which is not something I have denied.
The only thing in that list I’ve said is real soon now is self replicating robots…and that’s pretty much universally agreed is a near future thing. The governments of India, China, Russia, the staff of Forbes, Wired, hundreds of sources all say that high tier automation is a looming, imminent threat to the entire labor market. China’s going nearly all in on AI. Putin’s said that whoever gets it to work will control the world.
And a near-term capability that is a small step from self driving cars is automated manufacturing and mining…which is the same thing as self replication. If you aren’t an ignoramus you’d realize that.
Oh, and self replication is a hard problem, it’s just one that our civilization is on the path to solving. It’s going to take the work of tens of thousands of people and hundreds of billions of dollars to get to mass deployment of automated cars. It’ll take a similar scale effort to adapt the same machine intelligence solvers and control software packages for general purpose robots.
But that money is being spent as you read this.
Lotta ignoramuses in this thread, including a moderator.
Vizzini: I can’t compete with you physically, and you’re no match for my brains.
Man in Black: [intrigued] You’re that smart?
Vizzini: Let me put it this way: Have you ever heard of Plato? Aristotle? Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
SamuelA, by participating in these boards you’ve already proven your narcissistic needs.
But allow me to shift the topic back to academia. You never did answer the question on where you hung your entire argument about asteroids: What weapon are you basic your argument on?
Tripler
You unhid and read every post in this thread. . . temporarily.
Dude, what the fuck. I just went here. What exactly are you trying to “catch me” on? I don’t claim to know classified data and if I did, I’d be at risk of going to jail if I revealed it. I don’t understand your obsession with your question. Obviously you plan to say “gotcha” if I answer it.
I think I made a conservative estimate of “the Pantax boys can probably rig up a charge that gets 3 kilograms/kiloton”. Because that line shows that at least 5 U.S. warheads had that kind of performance based on reasonable guesses and declassified data.
Obviously if you remember the exact numbers you might be like “I can neither confirm nor deny but you’re full of shit”. Which maybe says that’s too optimistic. Whatever.
This one would be about right. A megaton and it’s 250 kilograms. But I don’t know which warheads are actually available in the hundreds or maybe thousands you’d need to redirect an asteroid. I don’t know how many could be converted in whatever time you’d have to the form factor and so forth you’d need. I don’t even know how long rebuilding warheads takes.
I assume you can rip the fissionable cores out of one warhead and remanufacture it to work in another design, but how long does it take to do that? Ideally you’d want a single design you use for this mission, and you might need a lot of them.
All I established was the kind of impulse you need seems more or less possible if you had a total wartime level effort. The problem is *getting *that kind of effort - what if your estimates only show a 10% chance of impact 10 years out? That’s the problem. If you had a “no limit budget” and 10 years, the numbers seem to show it’s *probably *feasible. I mean, it obviously depends on a huge amount of factors, but it would be in many asteroid scenarios. The problem is that how do you justify spending that kind of cash for only a 10% chance of impact?
Dude what the fuck. You’re basing an argument off of another third-party website with zero credibility as a scientific basis. And you made a conservative effort based off of absolutely zero credibility on the “Pantax boys.” (It’s PanTex BTW, but you wouldn’t know that because you don’t do any actual research). Your link is just another example of ‘providing evidence’ after the fact you’ve been called out.
And I see you fling out a W59 as “about right.” Again, it goes to show you have no idea what the fuck you are talking about, nor do you have a clue on how things actually work. We haven’t had W59s in the inventory for 20 years. To answer your inane question, no, one cannot “rip one out” and plunk it into another. You correctly admit that you don’t know how long it takes to rebuild a warhead.
Your post here only furthers our commitment to your egotism. And I will not feed this troll anymore. I’d say “ignored” but apparently you fell bait to that trap.
So you have absolutely nothing further to say to advance the discussion. Obviously, no credible source in the world exists for the exact mass of nuclear weapons owned by the U.S. government that are high performance designs. Since anyone who can say for certain would be committing a felony if they did.
Also, umm, I simply mentioned the W59 as a nuke with the performance you’d need, but mention I don’t know what’s in inventory. Hell, you probably don’t. What did they do with the cores from the decommissioned ones? Are they all sitting in a bunker somewhere or did they get remanned into newer designs? If you believe public sources the USA has 6,800 nukes sitting around somewhere. Plus if you believe the tour guide at Oak Ridge (direct family member got to visit), they have a mountain of weapons grade plutonium in storage there, ready to be made into new devices.
The main basis for my estimate is that if 4 Kg/kiloton was achievable in the 1960s, I bet we could dig something up with that kind of bang for the payload today. And you damn well know this.
So it’s a fucking reasonable estimate and you’ve done fuck all to negate it.
You’d have to be an absolute fucking moron if you didn’t think you could probably build a nuke with the same performance as a 1960s weapon if you had to. Double fucking ignored. Only morons are absolutely certain about anything.
Anyways, I’ve made my points. You’re all morons, except for those individuals I have named who are not. I’m done with my victory lap, I win all the arguments, tossing my guitar to the groupies in front and I’m heading backstage.
Whereas I may not be able to build an implosion device, I could most certainly built a gun-type such as the Little Boy bomb dropped on Hiroshima, if I had sufficient amounts of U235.
I’m not mad at SamuelA, I pity him. He’s going to learn a lot of valuable life lessons the hard way if he continues to walk through life calling the vast majority of intelligent humans around him “morons”. I have no doubt that he’ll have to experience some of those lessons many times along the road.
I’m not trying to “catch you.” You’ve been doing a fine job of that yourself without my help. I’m just driving tractor trailers through the gaps in your argument. It’s just too easy to do. And being a self proclaimed “engineer,” if you were presenting this dreck at a capstone project as a solution, you’d be laughed out of the school. Even with all of your “Fermi estimates.”
But in the asteroid thread, you magically concocted the number of 634. So which is it? Hundreds or thousands, or 634?
It takes a while. And no, you can’t just “convert” a weapon and hope it magically works.
Says the three-year old as he knocks over the chessboard.
But they aren’t any more impressed with your grandiose intellectual pretensions than anyone else is. You’ve made an ass of yourself here by misunderstanding basic ideas and demonstrating your lack of knowledge on multiple subjects. You’re an obnoxiously pompous and immature kid who should learn from others and heed the advice he’s been given.
You’re genuinely pathetic. I marvel that you can even function in the real world, if indeed you can.
The whole “I’m done with my victory lap, I win all the arguments, tossing my guitar to the groupies in front and I’m heading backstage.” is pathetic, if you assume he’s sincere. I suspect he’s not.
