I don’t think he’s going to win. Not jut my distaste for his ideas, but his persona is extremely off-putting. He comes across as a smug jerk. He might be the smartest guy on the stage, but damn, he’s as lovable as rancid butter.
Unlikeable to you and me, but maybe not to GOP voters. This is a few months old, but back in March his net favorability among Republicans wasn’t so bad.
I think that would be based on his ideas and ideology. But lots of people just haven’t had a huge exposure to his personality.
Well… confidentially…
538 had a piece a few weeks back making some of the same arguments in favor of Cruz I just did. Actually, likeability does not seem to be a problem for him. The strongest knock on him is that he is out of favor with the establishment. But, again, the GOP base seems to have such a strong anti-establishment tilt this cycle, I wonder how big a deal that is.
We’ve seen this in the past, but the GOP base always ends up siding with an electable candidate when it counts. I think the only difference this year is that they may pick somebody slightly less electable than in prior years. Cruz could conceivably fit into that continuum.
I think this cycle is different from the past. As I mentioned upthread, outsiders right now are pulling a combined 60%+ of GOP support. At this point in the 2012 race the Republican outsiders were pulling maybe 40%. In fall 2007, “outsiders” were insignificant. If you want to go back to 2000… by fall 1999, Bush was polling at 60%. Is it because the outsider candidates this year are particularly awesome, or the establishment candidates particularly suck, or because (my personal favorite) the GOP is in its final death throes as a viable national party? I don’t know. But I do think this cycle is different.
Historical GOP primary polls for 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016 below. Tell me what I’m missing.
Trump + Carson + Fiorina add up to about 50%. But I think what you’re missing is that Trump skews the numbers, because he has far greater name recognition than any “outsider” in recent memory. Carson had a good deal more preexisting name recognition than Cain, too.
Fred Thompson was drawing close to 25% in September/October 2007. Imagine what the numbers might look like if you tossed in another guy with Trump-like Q ratings (Bob Costas?)
In the past, we’ve also known who the single designated Electable Candidate was, and that’s who it stayed, right up until Election Day. But this time the Electable One has failed, and it may not be possible for a blatant Plan B guy, whoever they settle on, to have the power to hold back the Tide of Craziness.
Fair points.
Now, this is debatable but as I wrote earlier, I view Cruz as functionally an outsider. The establishment hate his guts and his appeal is to the Bible-thumping, the pissed off, and the disaffected. His role as senator has been that of the perennial rejectionist. So I would add his 10% to your 50% tally. I would also throw Huckabee and Santorum in there, even though they add up to just 3%.
You’re right though that Trump could be creating an illusion of pro-outsider sentiment.
The numbers don’t mesh with your memory. Giuliani was the Electable Candidate until December 2007, when McCain’s numbers skyrocketed. McCain was The Guy until November 1999, when GWB took over. Only 2012 really matches what you describe.
I think we need to define your terms a bit better then. It’s hard for me to see a sitting Senator, obstructionist as he may be, as an “outsider.”
I don’t think that was ever the case. The Republican pattern had been that the designated Electable Candidate was the one whose turn was next. That cycle, it was always McCain.
You can be in it and not of it. You can hold a seat and still be irrelevant.
It’s all about branding. St. Dr. Ron Paul (pbuh) was an outsider when he ran in 2008 and 2012 because he was the ideological equivalent of a toddler’s tantrum: NO! NO! NO! to everything, because the government morally can’t do anything at all, period. He was an outsider to the extent he refused to compromise with politics or reality, meaning he remained pure as a noble gas and about as effective at effecting change.
My ranting aside, Ron Paul brought previously apolitical people into his camp and made them true believers, moneybombs and all. He wasn’t a Republican so much as he was Ron Paul; his main competition among the more political of his following was Gary Johnson, the Libertarian. If Cruz can do that, he’s an outsider, regardless of how long he’s been in the Senate. It means he’ll be able to boost his own numbers without necessarily being able to take support from anyone else.
Ted Cruz is a one term senator, elected as a Tea Party conservative candidate to force change in Washington. He is obstructionist and not just anti Democrat/liberal, but a nuisance to the Republicans as well. He’s about as outsider as someone can be and be participating.
Basically, he is a Washington outsider who got himself a seat at the table to try to force change. He’s still not mainstream politician by any means.
Don’t look now, but if the Q-poll is accurate, Ted Cruz has moved into a tie for first place with Trump in Iowa, with his support picking up as Carson’s fades.
The numbers: Trump 25, Cruz 23, Carson 18, Rubio 13, Paul 5, Bush 4, Fiorina 3, Santorum, Christie, Huckabee 2 each, Kasich 1, undecided 2.
I think this is where shit gets real: if Cruz wins Iowa, he’s got a good chance of using that as a springboard to win South Carolina and the SEC primary.
ETA: If Cruz and Trump (or anyone else, if it comes to that) are roughly tied in Iowa in terms of actual support, Cruz wins because he’s got an actual organization on the ground.
Yes, I have been hearing about his surge in the recent polls. Scares me shitless.
So my choices will be Trump or Cruz in November?
Who’s running on the Libertarian ticket this go around?
Salvador Dali, for all the difference it makes.
A Trump or Cruz Admin would be a lot more surreal than Dali’s work.
A lengthy profile on Ted Cruz that makes the case that Ted Cruz is off the charts smart, but also is even worse than you think:
It’s all a chess game to him. And he’s very, very good at it. Problem is, when you win this chess game you then have to govern. How is he supposed to do that when his own party dislikes him so much?