now that Cruz decided to not endorse Donald J. Trump, and Trump’s odds are still considerably lower than Hillary’s on FiveThirtyEight, here’s a new thread for Ted Cruz’s next POTUS bid.
Well, according to the reception his speech got, he won’t be winning anybody in that room over . But if Trump comes in third behind Johnson, thr GOP may pretend they were behind Cruz all the time.
Trump doesn’t have to crash quite so spectacularly for Cruz to gain from this. If the Republicans suffer losses in House and Senate seats, etc, in November, and that the conclusion is that this was due or partly due to damage done to the brand by the nomination of Trump, Cruz’s reluctance to endorse Trump will appear wise.
Perhaps a rational person might jump to that conclusion, but there is an equal chance that they will blame Cruz for sabotaging the party and planting the seeds of disunity.
lol that won’t happen.
It could only encourage the faction that would blame Trump for not being conservative enough. They won’t blame him for not playing the be-nice game, they’ll applaud him for it.
Yes. But Cruz’s distaste for Trump is at least in part because Trump is not a conservative in Cruz’s own mould. And it has little do to with Trump’s inability to deal with people in a rational and constructive way, since that is a characteristic that Cruz himself shares.
So if the party comes to view Trump in the light you suggest, they will find that they have come into line with the way Cruz already views him. This can only benefit Cruz.
depends on how big Trump loses, IMO. If he loses by a few electoral or popular votes, yes. But if Trump loses decisively, they’ll delve into conspiracy, the donor class, etc.
Cruz pretty much sank his own chances of being the GOP nominee. But Cruz is not a stupid man. Cruz entered the lions den knowing he was going to get mauled by the crowd and did so with eyes wide open, and he knew he was going to anger not only the establishment who’ve decided to grit their teeth and bear Trump, but also those like Little Marco who basically despise Trump but still believe in party unity. The question is, why would Cruz do such a thing? There must be something up his sleeve that the rest of the country hasn’t quite caught onto yet. And being that he’s a senator from delegate-rich state of Texas, that something may be a nasty surprise to the republican party when he finally reveals it.
I don’t think wisdom is really a prerequisite.
I’m glad to see that My Jr Senator foresees utter Democratic victory in November. With not only The Donald soundly beaten but down-ballot Republicans suffering.
Such a debacle is the only situation that would make last night’s antics beneficial to Cruz’s political career. If only the party had chosen a True Anointed Conservative, they would not have been punished so!
It gives me hope.
Cruz just alienated his only voter base. The people he is trying to appeal to by not fully embracing Trump already hate his guts, so do establishment and moderate Republicans. The Trumpeteers WERE his voters and the only way he could come close to sniffing the nomination in 2020, and he just waved bye bye to them.
I think Cruz, in his not-to-disguised loathing of the Donald (for which he has ample justification, IMHO), decided to place a couple of long-term bets that are risky but if they pay off could make him President in 2020 (not a pleasant thought for me).
Bet one is that the Donald will not only lose, but lose big-time to Hilary. This could happen, but there is a long time to November and we don’t know what is going to happen (I mean, this whole campaign season hasn’t made any sense yet) in those next 3-1/2 months. But it is quite possible that Hilary will wipe the floor with Trump and do it so decisively that lots of Republican seats are lost in the House/Senate/statehouses. In other words, Trump is humiliated and the party divided and decimated.
Bet two is that Hilary’s first term is a disaster, either due to political (another hostage crisis or another 9-11-size disaster) or economic (another 2008-level recession), leaving her weakened and perceived as a ‘failure’. Again, no one can predict the future, and I don’t think it will go down like that, but it is not impossible.
Given the above two events coming true, people will be looking for an alternative to the Trump/Hilary ‘messes’, and Cruz can present himself as an alternative who is principled (see my 2016 speech) but determined to do the right thing for the Nation.
I don’t give this more than a 4% chance, but with Cruz already reviled by his Senate colleagues and a side note in this election, he might see it as his only shot at being relevant in the future.
IMHO as always. YMMV.
I guess it would make sense but everyone but the most conservative Republicans already highly disliked Cruz, and he just pissed those guys off. The people booing him of the stage are the ones who will be picking the GOP candidate for the near future.
My crackpot armchair theory is that Cruz is banking on the complete collapse of the republican party. That only happens through some serious divisions within the party, which probably takes some degree of incitement of acrimony and orchestrated activism. I’m guessing Cruz would be behind that activism and that he’s going to wait for Trump and republicans to alienate religious conservatives. This would mean that Trump could still get elected and Cruz could still tear the party apart – in some ways Trump’s election could be better for Cruz because he could turn into a kind of “I told you so” prophet. I think he’d aim to be the undisputed leader of religious conservatives and he would probably try to take over this wing of the party and fuse it with some of the worst of the tea party and splinter the republicans.
He’s also making another calculation: that the Democrats will be equally unhappy after Clinton makes her pick of Veep and alienates progressives, which could seriously weaken that party and cause a serious schism on the left. Cruz would benefit from a political shit show in which you have three or even four parties, or short of that, you have the GOP mortally wounded and the Democratic party in critical condition.
Cruz knew he was going to take heat for this. Maybe he underestimated how much but he knew he’d probably need to leave the Q in haste. Cruz has repeatedly acted like he’s running for president of the Jonestown cult but he has also proven himself to be extraordinarily intelligent in terms of calculating and plotting. He didn’t see Trump coming this year – but nobody else did either. Trump is probably a passing fad as a candidate. But religious fanaticism is a fad that never quite fades. Ted will simply wait and buy more time.
People have occasionally used the Hitler analogy to apply it to Trump. The Donald, however, does not act like Hitler. He doesn’t have an ideology. Cruz, on the other hand, could be the American Adolf.
I’m going with the others who see this as Cruz shooting himself in the foot with his speech and non-endorsement. In fact, he faced a pretty hostile crowd at a breakfast meeting for the Texas delegation this morning. That is decidedly not good for him.
Not only do I doubt his chances in 2020, I’m wondering if he will be able to retain his Senate seat in 2018. A credible candidate challenging him in the GOP primary could be a serious problem.
My take is that Kasich is best positioned for 2020 at this point.
America met Kasich and yawned. I think we’ll see a whole different slate of candidates to challenge Ted. The GOP will HAVE to come up with a slate more charismatic than Jeb¿ or Kasich (or Jindal, I just typed, laughing…).
It would be very interesting to know what’s going on here.
One of my theories is that it’s personal. After Trump’s comments about Cruz, his wife and his father, I could easily see it being a personal grudge that overrides any political calculus. Even if he had a rational reason for doing it, the desire for personal satisfaction might have colored his choice.
When I look at all of his rational reasons for doing this, I keep feeling like this was the riskiest route to choose. Yes, maybe there are some upsides if things play out certain ways. Still, following the example of the Bushes and Kasich would have kept him from being tied to Trump without offending major party power brokers.
On the other hand, I just took Cruz off my “never ever” list. I still don’t like him, but it’s the least I can do for someone willing to spite Trump like that.
I think it is simply lack of any good choices left for GOP presidential hopefuls. You either embrace the Trump wing guaranteeing a lose in the general or try to be a moderate and guarantee a loss in the primaries. The fact that Trump went after his wife and father makes it a lot easier of course, but realistically he was fucked either way.
I just heard him talking about this on the radio, explaining why he no longer considers himself bound by his pledge to endorse the nominee; it’s definitely personal. Especially with Trump going after Mrs Cruz.