It looks like that’s been pretty much abandoned by everyone now. Bush’s Super PAC was running ads while Jeb was spending his money primarily on other things. There are still independent Super PACs, but the ones associated with particular candidates are now for all intents and purposes officially part of the candidates’ campaigns.
What the FEC decides to do about this is anyone’s guess. Since it’s not actually making a difference in the campaign, there’s no rush to make decisions.
The FEC is even more deadlocked than Congress.
Lindsay Graham clearly loathes Cruz. He said today that if Cruz were murdered on the Senate floor and the trial was heard by the Senate, the murderer would not be convicted.
And they interrupted him at least 3 times. His zingers weren’t very good, either; he should have been lambasting Trump, not Bernie IMO.[Story here.
](Auto Racing | AP News)This turkey is done but refusing to get out of the oven, IMO.
In order to satisfy the Republican convention requirement that a candidate have the majority of eight delegations in order to have their name placed in nomination, Cruz is campaigning hard in Guam, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, American Samoa and the Marianas.
Despite all the other craziness this season I really like the idea of Cruz carrying those places and that being enough to satisfy Rule 40.
Somebody here posted the results from a recent primary in another small possession. The vote tally was 162 to 60ish. That’s total votes, not delegates. But it counts as one of the 8 necessary wins.
As long as Trump doesn’t win in Nov this’ll all have been great sport. I’m not sanguine about it though. IMO he’s got a heck of chance.
That was on the Democratic side. American Samoa, if I remember right. But, yes, the delegations from the territories would count as part of the eight.
If they don’t change the rule. If Trump arrives at the convention with a plurality, but not a majority, that rule is going to be changed so fast it’ll make your head spin.
Puerto Rico has its hybrid primary/caucus ® event this Sunday. The Establishment and most donors and local officials had been in with Jeb, having been Bush-aligned since 41’s first race in 1980, due to the Bushes’ outreach to Latinos and their overt support for statehood. Upon his dropping out they headed for Rubio’s camp. Trump supporters locally have been of course complaining that the Establishment is not playing fair; everyone else on the Island is incredulous there are local Trump supporters. Hardly have seen any Cruz publicity.
After today, I don’t think a Trump win is a foregone conclusion at all. It’s very striking that Trump’s support in open primaries is much higher than it was in Oklahoma, a closed primary. Trump only got 28% of the vote in Oklahoma compared to the big open primary states where he generally got more like 40%, and even 50% in Mass.
Furthermore, in open primary states Republican turnout was setting records, while Democratic turnout was down significantly. This leaves open the possibility that Trump’s support is essentially the 25-30% of Republicans that have typically gone for outsiders like Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot. If so, that means that Trump is picking up maybe 10-20% support from disaffected Democrats and independents who are crossing over and voting for him in the open primaries. And I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some strategic voting by Democrats, trying to spoil the Republican campaign by helping Trump.
The sample size is small, so this could just be a fluke. But there’s a natural experiment coming up: This Saturday there are four caucuses running, and they are all closed. If Trump comes out of Saturday with an average of 25% to 35% of the vote he could be in trouble, because a lot of the states yet to hold primaries and caucuses are closed, and some of those are big and winner-take-all.
Rubio looks like he’s far behind, but that could be an illusion based on geography - Cruz has been through his best states now, but Rubio’s are ahead of him. If he takes Florida on March 15 and he and Cruz win in this weekend’s caucuses, it’s going to be a 3 person race with a 3-way split in delegates. And Trump will not have the momentum any more.
Anyway, I don’t know how likely it is, but it does point out that there are still scenarios here where any three of the current leaders could win, and also scenarios where the party cuts a deal with Cruz and Rubio and even Kasich to stay in the race right through all the primaries just to try to deny a majority of delegates to Trump. That would cause a contested convention, at which point the party establishment can basically give Trump the boot.
This Saturday could be big. Cruz is only behind Trump by 93 delegates. If we give Rubio Florida on March 15, he’s essentially tied with Cruz as he’ll pick up 99 delegates (it’s winner-take-all), and there are 155 Republican delegates up for grabs this weekend, all in closed contests.
And so far, Trump is not tracking towards a majority of delegates. He’s currently losing to the field by 319 delegates to 361 for the other three. If Trump falls off the pace or just stays on it, he’ll go to the convention with a plurality but not a majority of delegates. Now, normally in that case a candidate could wheel and deal and offer cabinet positions and such to other candidates and build a majority. That’s why what Romney did today was so important. By shaming Trump, he’s shaming politicians who help him. Trump might go into the convention to find that all the other candidates left have created a bloc that freezes him out.
Anyway, a guy can dream. But I think this is a realistic, if not likely scenario.
That was, I say, I say, that was a joke, son: http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/02/26/lindsey-graham-washington-press-club.cnn
Sure it was.
Cruz supposedly picking up 4 Senate endorsements. He’s hated so much in the Senate that he doesn’t have any of now. Far right Mike Lee is likely to be one, but I’m curious as to the other 3.
It occurs to me that maybe this was a cry for help. “Mr President, put us all out of this man’s misery and we’ll take care of you.”
I wonder if the original story was just floated as a way to re-embarrass Cruz for his failure to pick up a single endorsement from his colleagues.
Nicely played, if so.
I like this, too: http://www.northernsun.com/Ted-Cruz-Canadian-President-Button-(0310).html
After what he did to Carson, he was asking for it.
Ted getting some side nookie?
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/breaking-ted-cruz-sex-scandal-appears-looming/#ixzz42dfLsYnb
And still this election season keeps getting more and more interesting.
Talk about strange bedfellows.
While I’d love to see Cruz put through the sex scandal wringer, that site is just repeating rumors kicked around on Twitter. The whole basis of this seems to be that Cruz was photographed with an attractive member of his campaign staff. I hate Cruz, but I’ll wait for something more credible before I start cackling with glee.
Likewise. A pretty girl often seen near a presidential candidate does not equal an affair… necessarily.