Tell me if I've got how this will likely go (Re: Rumsfield)

1.) Bush continues to sound his piehole about Rummy’s worthiness to the administration, sound judgement, etc. “No, he’s not fallin’ on his sword!”

2.) Rummy is quietly told to fall on his sword

  1. Rummy publishes a book bashing the administration…turns out he was another stinking Democrat!

I think this depends, sadly, on factors that don’t have anything to do with Rumsfeld’s troubles. It all depends on how Dubyah’s looking to the voting public in a few months. This is not a dealbreaker for most people who love Bush, and it certainly doesn’t change the mind of anybody who hates him.

If the polls are right on the fence about him in - I don’t know, July? September? - then Bush’ll have to shitcan Rummy. He’d gain more swing votes that way (people who have become upset with him over this) than he’d lose (people who want him to stay the course and be consistent). Still, it would be very hard for him to do… he’s already sort of promised that Rummy’s job is safe, hasn’t he?

I don’t think this will push Bush significantly below the 50/50 line in the polls. If we had a better opponent in this race… <sigh>.

I also don’t think he’s going to bow to any international pressure on this point, even though it probably is a politically wise thing to do.

… until they find the memo from Bush to Rumsfeld, suggesting that they might find the WMD if they just torture some of the prisoners and ask them…

Three factors: first, it has probably been determined that it is better for GeeDubya to appear to be loyal and firmly decisive, but the decision is probably kind of a toss-up, politicly. But it would alienate more Bush supporters than it would mollify Bush bashers. Of course, if it would ensure his election, Bush would order Rummy to commit seppuku in the Rose Garden at high noon tomorrow.

Second, if Rummy were to go, he would have to be replaced. Colin Powell is the obvious choice, but not stupid enough to dip his nutsack in a pool of piranha, or at least not twice. Wolfowitz would leap at the chance, but would never, ever survive a confirmation hearing. (Actually, Wolfie would shove his mama into a wood chipper to be Sec. Def…feet first, so we could all see the look on her face…) No way. So who?

And lastly, all Rummy would have to do to stop the process dead in its tracks would be to utter one word: “memoirs”.

Another one? Oh, you’re probably referring to Richard Clarke. Look, you don’t need to be a Democrat to recognize that Bush is a terrible President. It’s simply a fact.