I say yes. I can’t see any way he can stay. Once congress reconvenes the pressure on Bush to replace Rumfeld is going to be unrelenting. Bush is desperate to find something that will boost his poll numbers and toward that end he’s touting his S.S. drug program and the economy. I don’t think he’s going to get much from either.
The only thing on the agenda right now, that could help Bush, is the immigration issue, but the republicans are split over that and Bush is probably on the wrong side of the issue to reassure his right wing base.
While replacing Rumsfeld can be seen as a weakness, it can also be spun to show a positive move in the war and the war is the main issue.
Republican leaders will convince Bush that replacing Rumsfeld is necessary to maintain control of the Congress and he will conceed.
I predict that Rumsfeld will be gone before Memorial Day, if not sooner.
nah. Bush is a “My way right or wrong” kind of guy. Rumsfield may not stay until the end of his term because he is so old, but it owuldn’t surprise me if he did.
I’d say no, because it would be tantamount to admitting that the war was handled badly.
A better question is: How big a medal will rummy get?
Is Bush desperate to find something to boost his poll numbers?
Why would he care?
The “pressure” on Rumsfeld, and on Bush, that the OP notes is probably more likely to make Bush *keep * him.
If it didn’t happen as soon as the WMD lies, and Rumsfleld’s bungling of the war, were exposed, it ain’t gonna happen now. What’s changed?
I don’t think he would care personally but very low polls for Bush at midterm elections could cost the republicans several or many seats.
A.R. Cane: Why specifically do you think Rummy would resign? They have blustered through all fiascos so far, what has changed?
Jim
Bush’s popularity plummeted and the 2006 elections are coming up. If President Bush gets rid of Rumsfeld now, he can say that Iraq was Rumsfield’s fault. If he accompanies that with some sort of troop pullout, his job approval rating might go up, which will make things easier for the Republican candadates in November.
I’m not saying it will happen…just that that’s a benefit for the President if it does happen.
After the recent criticism from some generals, Bush has come out with strong supporting comments about Rummy. Does “helluva job” ring a bell, anyone? He’s as dead as a market mackeral.
Naw, it’s a couple of years too late for that. If he’d done it at the time, that might have worked. But now, there’s nothing Bush can do to eliminate his image as a reckless bungler, short of admitting a massive fuckup and pulling out, and his sheer pigheadedness makes that impossible. The only thing that will salvage his ratings is sheer luck, for which he and his supporters can find a way to take credit.
I don’t think he’ll last the month. He just got a vote of confidence from Bush, which might be the kiss of death, sort of like “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job.”
GW’s constant claim is that he doesn’t pay any attention to polls.
I don’t think Rummy will resign until, and unless, the political fallout scares Republican members of Congress into pressuring GW to let him go.
Now if active duty generals start retiring early or resigning and announcing that Rummy’s actions were their reason for doing so, that might be different.
With the exception of Gen Zinni the protestors are relatively junior. Remember, to the Secretary of Defense a division commander is pretty far down the hierarchy. In the echelon of command a division commander is to the Secretary of Defense as a squad leader is to a division commander.
Chris Mathews interviewed Gen. Franks on 14 Apr. Franks said that you never could tell what Runsfeld’s real opinion was during the planning of operations. Rumsfeld always adopted the contrary position, seemingly in order to force proposers to work hard at their proposal and in defense of it. Rumsfeld would hand down the mission, which is his job, and the military people would create the plan which would then be argued out with Rumsfeld and the other civilian leaders, such as Army, Air Force, and Navy Secretaries. Franks said that it wasn’t a pleasant process but he got used to it.
I wanted Mathews to as Frank is Rumsfelds mission statement included things like “You are to do ________ using the following forces, XXX Air Force Groups, YYY Army and Marine Division, ZZZ Navy assets, etc.” The detailed specification of what forces to use would be improper I think.
Tell them what the job is. They come up with the plan and the assets they think are proper. Question them on the plan and their staffing estimates to accomplish it. If their reasoning is accurate and you have the forces available, proceed. If you don’t have the force available then you either make them available or change the mission.
I don’t defend Rumsfeld and think we would be better off if he had never been Secretary of Defense. But he is the Secretary of Defense and appears to be doing the job that his boss wants done.
Bush absolutely cares about approval ratings, but more importantly the RNC cares. Republicans are in very real danger of losing control of both houses. Although the republicans are trying to draw attention to the immigration problem, Iraq is still the big issue and it’s obvious to many that some positive movement there could dramatically change Bush’s fortune. Bush’s popularity is key to holding seats in the upcoming election. Replacing Rumsfeld w/ someone outside the current neo-con gang, someone w/ fresh ideas on Iraq, could bring some progress, or at least an illusion of progress. The hope would be that any good news from Iraq would have the needed effect to influence the elections. I don’t believe Bush will “blame” Rumsfeld publically, but he is good at encouraging speculation, while at the same time denying it.
I’m not saying I think this will work, but I believe that the party leaders see it as a solution. There are a lot of disappointed voters out there and they’d love to find a reason to go back to Bush. Nobody likes to admit they were wrong.
Bush is very much interested in a legacy. More specifically, a legacy that is positive. That said, there’s no way in hell that he will get rid of Rumsfeld. The harder others push, the more recalcitrant Bush will become.
Astonishing that it only took thirty years to go from tits-deep in one debacle to tits-deep in this one.
Waste
Not to be nitpicky, but the United States Army only has ten regular divisions, and the Marines four. IIRC; a division will certainly have more than fourteen squads. A division commander is usually a major general, which is two steps below a full general; a squad leader, usually a sergeant, is a lot more than two steps below a major general.
Why should the comments from a group of retired generals be a cause for Rumsfeld’s resignation? In 6 months or so (plus or minus) you’re going to see the heir apparent appointed. Shortly thereafter, you’ll start to see new cabinet appointments.
The similarities between Rumsfeld and McNamara are of note, IMHO. Bean counters may make great CEO’s, but the military is not a profit making corp.
Rumsfeld hasn’t made a lot of political allies, either in congress on in the military. If the republican leadership sees Rummy as a liability, he will go.
Democrat congressional candidates should make support for Rummy a litmus test this fall. Force incumbent Republicans to either support him or condemn him. Ouch, it pinches!!
The testimony from those now out of the government is that Rummy did not do this. He meddled in low level assignments, things former DoD heads did not do. We know he set troop levels for Iraq based on his ideology, not the suggestions of at least some top generals. He did not even send the final planned division to Iraq since things were going well.
The reason he might resign is that a large number of generals are speaking out even in war time. That can’t be easy for them to do. Given his known intolerance of dissent, Franks’ statements are not going to be believed.
But he won’t, because that isn’t the way the Bushies do things. Rummy is one of the cabal, not an easy to sacrifice lackey like Brownie. Forcing him to resign would be admitting they screwed up. The Republicans only hope is a health problem - I’m sure Bush cares more about Rummy than about a Congress which is increasingly thinking for themselves.
An excellent idea.
The last poll results for Rummy I found were from 12/04.
Link
52% wanted him to be replaced, even back then. Strangely enough, the links I found were all foreign. Very strange.
He’s already tried to resign twice. Bush didn’t let him resign over Abu Ghraib, and he won’t let him resign now.
Rumsfeld will be around until Iran detonates a nuke over Baghdad.