the only model 3s shipping now are the ~$50k models right? I assume they could ship the cheaper models now but choose not to because their profit is higher on the $50k model.
I’m amazed at what people spend on cars now. I just read the average US car price for a new car is now over $30k. I bought a Nissan rogue with AWD this year for $23k and it’s pretty loaded and that was the most I’ve ever paid for a car and I’m over 50.
The cheapest you can get now is $47,000, but the average selling price is right around $60,000.
People are stretching their budgets for Teslas right now like they were stretching for houses in 2008. If we hit a recession, I think that’s really bad news.
I used to wonder why car magazines have so many articles on $100k and up cars. Then I realized it’s just selling a fantasy . It’s like swimsuit models - you are not getting that girl or that $100k car - for most guys. 
So I would guess some people think of a Tesla as a fantasy type car.
My brother bought a model S some three years ago and an uncomfortable number of bits and bobs have failed since then, including two(!) video screens. He is so happy he bought an extended warranty.
Brake fluid change is the same on my Model S as any other car. I’ve done it myself and it was easy. Coolant is Tesla-only as you need to activate various pumps & valves in order to bleed the system after you change the fluid. I had mine done at Tesla at the 5 year mark for $230. It uses a special coolant and quite a lot of it, just the coolant is close to $100, so $230 wasn’t too bad.
I think the latest maintenance guides don’t list coolant nor differential fluid anymore, they’re now ‘lifetime’. Sounds a bit risky if you plan on keeping the car for a long time like me. I changed the diff fluid myself (easy) and the old fluid was quite sparkly, so I’d say changing it on a model S/X is worthwhile. Model 3 with the oil filter is probably OK without ever changing it.
The people I know who bought Teslas can easily afford them, even if another recession hits. They’re not financing the purchase.
Yes, and I know of someone on another site who bought one and I can’t for the life of me understand how he could afford a loaded Model 3.
lots of people spend way more on cars than you would think based on their income since it’s easy to get a loan. People buy $50k loaded pickups that make $20k a year.
I’ll be picking my car up on Wednesday. I hope there are no issues with it as I doubt they would be able to correct anything major by the end of the year.
Massachusetts just changed their rebate program effective Jan 1st so I am extra glad I decided to buy when I did. It goes down from $2500 to $1500 and even then only counts if the total sales price is less than 50k.
How did it go? I hope you’re enjoying the car as much as I am.
An anecdote disguised as advice: you’re five year old may think that the fart mode is hilarious, but your wife will just say, “we can turn it off now” until it stops.
It went well, the process was quick and I didn’t have to wait much at all. Everyone was pleasant and helpful. The car was not as clean as I would have liked, I will need to wash the windows and wipe down the interior later.
As for the car, I had not test driven it or even seen it up close before so I was a little nervous about how it would be. I didn’t have enough time between the Nov 30 deadline when I made my decision to buy. However, the research I did and the 3 day return policy made me comfortable enough to go for it.
I have to say that all of my expectations were met and then exceeded in many respects. The acceleration and handling are absolutely fantastic. The audio system is as good as I hoped for and the navigation was wonderful. I’ve had Nav systems before but always used my phone instead because they were so awful. That is definitely not going to be the case here.
The stupid grin on my face lasted even after I left the car and I had to keep it in check on my trip to Target after the dealership in order to not look like an idiot.
The only issue that I have had was that setting the windshield wipers to auto made them always on despite it being clear skies. I know they are in Beta and many people have issues with them, but I thought it was more that they didn’t wipe enough in some situations. Not sure yet what the deal is there.
Congrats on the new car!
I’m a little surprised at the auto wipers going off even in clear skies. Never had that problem myself–I agree with the other complaints you’ve seen, that I wish they were a a tad more aggressive in wiping. But they still work pretty well, and it’s not a big deal to tap the stalk button if there’s some mist building up.
I got the latest SW update the other night (48.12). I hooked up an Xbox controller via USB and played Lunar Lander and some other games. Mostly worked great! The controls on Pole Position were wonky but it was cute how they substituted the car with a Model 3.
Tesla announced their Q4 sales figures. Model 3 sales are up 15% over last quarter, which is a nice increase but clearly (for the time being), they’re past the exponential part of their growth curve.
3/4 of the sales were from new customers, not reservation holders, which is a good sign. Obviously there are a bunch of people still holding reservations for base models and in Europe, but they’ve managed to mostly transition their US high-spec sales to ordinary buyers.
The stock took a bit of a dip, but nothing shocking. I’d ascribe this to the $2000 price cut they announced. That about halfway ameliorates the $3750 reduction in Federal rebate. Nothing too unexpected there, but it’s definitely a reduction in margin going forward.
I’m curious about the Q4 financial results, but I don’t really expect any surprises either. It doesn’t look like Tesla had any enormous capital expenditures–they haven’t opened up any new lines or anything. There’s some work in China but nothing huge so far. They’re still rolling out new Superchargers, but there wasn’t some big one-time deployment. So I expect that they kept CapEx at reasonable levels, kept margins similar to Q3 (slight positive from general refinements, slight negative from mid-range model), and so with their announced volumes I think they’ll be nicely profitable again.
Tesla announced their Q4 earnings.
No real surprises to my mind. They’re still nicely profitable, despite the reduction in Model 3 sales prices (due to the introduction of the midrange model) and the lack of significant ZEV credits. Good margins and cash flow.
They have a large bond which matures in March, but with Q3 and Q4 they have plenty of cash to pay it off comfortably.
As they projected earlier, gross margins were stable at ~20%. Prices went down, but efficiency went up (20% reduction in labor hours from Q3 to Q4), and those two factors roughly canceled each other.
The investor letter didn’t say anything about the $35k model; hopefully that’ll come up in the conference call. I know they’re still working on a cost-reduced pack redesign.
This may have been Tesla’s first “boring” quarter. It’s pretty much what you’d expect from a successful, well-established company. Q3 was profitable too, but also a step-change from previous quarters. Q4 is just more of the same. At least as far as the Model 3 is concerned, they’re out of their exponential growth phase–they’re still growing, but not at quite the same ridiculous rates as before.
I saw reports that the SR is expected mid year in a noncommittal way, but that’s probably the $40k version. And full self driving by the end of the year.
Clearly we are still talking Elon time.
They were pretty noncommittal on the conference call in general. Mid-year for the SR is still just a rough guess and dependent on cost reductions.
At this point, I sorta wonder if it’s dependent on Chinese production and/or Model Y. The Chinese Gigafactory has obvious cost benefits; the Model Y could help through sheer volume. But these things would push the SR release past mid-year.
Speaking of Model Y, it looks like it might be built at GF1. This would make a tour of the Gigafactory even more interesting/appealing than it already is. My understanding is that they were once offering tours as part of the referral program, but I don’t know what the current status is.
I don’t think they’ve ever offered public tours of the Gigafactory, though they said they plan on it. They’ve offered tours of the Fremont plant for owners for a while now; I did one a while back but I’d like to schedule another.
I have three referrals and they don’t say anything about a tour, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t add it in the future. Though they are ending the referral program.
Yeah, Elon time. The SR has been tentatively scheduled for mid-year for the last two years. I’ll believe it when I see it. I get it, if they’re making and selling almost 10,000 Model 3s a week, LR and MR, then why bother to chase the SR too hard. If like they say they’re working on new battery packaging that will bring the price down, then why wouldn’t they be able to use the same cheaper packaging on the more expensive LR and MR models, too, and continue to neglect the SR?
Sent you a PM.