That’s all fair. I’m not saying that there’s no difference in meaning. What I am claiming is that the way things played out would not have differed in any material way. There would still be an SEC investigation, because they’re going to investigate any big announcement. There would still be the speculation about who the funder is. There would still be the claims about being erratic after they did the due diligence and decided not to follow through. Etc.
Yes, and I anticipate this will happen in time all by itself as Tesla starts slowing their growth a tad and every other carmaker has a real EV. At this point, I think it’s pretty much inevitable. But in the meantime, FUD causes real damage.
Apple has been brought up several times here. No one doubt them now, but at the time of releasing the iPod, iPhone, and iPad, there was an immense amount of negative coverage of them and FUD by the competition. Of course, they overcame all that, but it was all there, and simply telling them to run their company better wouldn’t have stopped anything.
As for this one–it’s a pretty rare public appearance where Musk doesn’t get choked up once or twice (just one example–this interview from 2014). And really rare where he doesn’t crack some jokes. Maybe you still think this is concerning, but it’s nothing new.
One lawsuit down, 99 to go…
*In a decision made public on Monday, U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer said that while the plaintiffs claimed that Tesla fell short of its production goals, “federal securities laws do not punish companies for failing to achieve their targets.” *
Just in case anybody is still wondering what happens if you set an ambitious but uncertain goals and then fail to meet them.
I really don’t want to talk about Orange Julius here, but let’s try another: Obama.
Obama endured absolutely withering attacks on his character and family, and it hardly ruffled him. No doubt that in this respect, he’s the better man than Musk. Not much shame in not living up to this standard; few people could.
But did it really buy Obama anything? Maybe he should have gone on the attack. Ignoring the attacks certainly didn’t make them go away–half the country still thinks he’s a gay atheist Muslim from Kenya. The current moron in chief has made it an explicit goal–because his supporters demand it–to tear down every piece of his legacy.
I don’t actually know if attack mode vs. taking the high ground is really the right answer. Musk obviously feels that every piece of misinformation has to be responded to, and then some. I think that probably, Musk’s time is better spent elsewhere, but I also don’t think the attacks will simply disappear if he keeps quiet.
And come on; it’s not like the attacks are really the only thing going on. They just dominate the news. Tesla is in fact producing large numbers of awesome vehicles. If one’s sole knowledge of Tesla was based on the cars exiting the factory, I don’t think anyone could be unimpressed.
Even including your subsequent comments, I’m at a complete loss for why you bring this up. It’s an example of the BEST arguments against twitter wars etc.
The problem is that to Elon and his devoted followers, any criticism that Elon doesn’t admit to is “misinformation.” Pointing out that Tesla’s market cap makes literally no sense is perceived as an attack; or more to the point, “FUD.” And I think it’s clear that this is a strategy to distract from the real shortfalls of the company by circling the wagons against boogeymen.
Well, if you asked the average person whether a company is worth $71 billion based solely on the knowledge that Tesla seeks to make something like 200,000 cars this year, the average person would probably wonder if the cars sell for a million dollars each.
Any “in their lifetime” poll is necessarily going to be biased young. The competition for the past 20 years isn’t so hot.
Again, I’m not claiming that Twitter wars or a general fighting attitude are a good idea. Just that it’s not so cut and dried, since a very significant slice of the population view Obama as the devil incarnate, based almost entirely on lies.
Well, I know you aren’t talking about me, since I’ve said multiple times in this thread that their market cap is unjustified. And the various blogs or whatever that say Tesla is really a trillion dollar company or whatever are way out in la-la-land. To be honest, I don’t really see the types of fans you describe. Even the more die hard types generally think “yeah, this is a little out of hand”.
Note that my general opposition to shorts has nothing to do with this. It’s not the nature of their bet that I disagree with. It’s the fact that they can directly influence that result with FUD. Although longs also have some influence, it’s not quite the same–Tesla is already pushing an optimistic message, and the media preferentially gravitates toward negative stories. So FUD has an outsized influence.
For the record, I think the company I work for also has an absurd, unjustified market cap (if you’ve been paying attention, you’ll know who it is). I’ve never seen any real relation between market cap and the real future value of the company. Though I have done well because of it, so I can’t complain.
And more specifically, the Pentium 4 was steaming dog shit compared to just about everything else out there. Apple was wise to ignore it. The Core line that Apple switched to was a much better architecture. Just about all of the classic complaints about Intel were gone by then. The only remaining ones were the “aesthetic” complaints about the x86 instruction set, and that was always a fairly stupid and irrelevant one.
I still fail to see any point in the comparison. I’m not saying I disagree with your point; I’m just seeing a bunch of words that don’t really relate to anything in particular. Maybe you can try again to explain why Obama has anything to do with the common tactic of inventing boogeyman enemies to distract from actual issues.
My point wasn’t really about the market cap, it was about how evaluating Tesla (or anything really) on the basis of “if we just judge by this one thing…” as you suggested in a previous post.
You’ve totally lost me again. What is the nature of this “outsized influence?” As in, if not for “FUD,l how would things be different? Tesla stock would be 800 and climbing? There would be more Model 3s on the road? Elon would be getting more sleep?
Jesus, I hate that term, FUD. It’s like the nerd version of the term “cuck.”
Frankly, I don’t think you’re much interested in real discussion with rhetoric like “inventing boogeyman enemies”.
One elaboration, and I’m done with the political distraction: my point is simply that not fighting the lies did not quiet Obama’s enemies. They kept peddling their crap and a huge fraction of the populace bought it. It was not an insignificant element in the election of the current president. Obama’s approach may have been more dignified but it did absolutely nothing to shut up the (real, not invented) opposition.
Ultimately, I am fairly sick of talking about talking about talking about talking about stuff. It’s tiresome and ultimately useless.
Tesla makes cars. So I evaluate them on their ability to make cars. As it happens, their cars are great, and although their manufacturing ability leaves something to be desired, they are still outproducing everyone else and by wide margins. Everything else is noise.
If you think there is something else concrete that’s worth talking about, I’m all ears. I haven’t heard much about their other efforts lately.
Finally, a good question; one without an immediate answer. To start, I do think Elon would be less stressed, though that’s not exactly quantifiable. And I don’t care about market cap and don’t think that should be any kind of goal.
The main benefit, as I see it, is a generally more positive–and accurate–view of Tesla, or more accurately their vehicles. Most people only know of Tesla via some kind of osmosis, without much in the way of concrete information. If they hear a lot of negative stories about Tesla, then they will have a negative view of them.
Just as one real-world example (though more directed at EVs instead of Tesla in particular), I was at a family get-together and overheard a relative saying that the electrical grid would be totally overloaded if more than a tiny fraction of cars were EVs. I didn’t say anything then, because I’m not particularly confrontational, and because I knew he would repeat the story to me eventually. He did, but I was mentally prepared at that point and made a cogent counterargument (Fairly easy answer: EVs use less power than AC, but charge at night. If the grid can handle peak AC loads then it can handle EVs).
I don’t know where he got that story, but I’ve seen similar bullshit on Facebook or wherever. Or hell, this very thread. This relative was telling everyone he could find and anyone that found him credible (like other family members) would come away with a distaste of EVs. Or worse, that paranoid, conspiratorial attitude that is so common among conservatives.
Tesla has their own unique problems on top of anti-EV propaganda, but the basic forces are the same. People hear this stuff and form a negative impression that’s disconnected from reality.
Tesla will overcome this in time–they are selling more than enough Model 3s that positive word of mouth will exceed Facebook bullshit. It is nevertheless a negative influence and puts a damper on the EV transition.
I read this weird thing. Which is supposedly an AMA by a former Tesla IT/developer. Just to make it difficult, it is presented here as a series of screen captures on twitter. I don’t have a link to the original.
The bad things discussed are the lack of scalability of the backend systems at Tesla (the computers the cars talk to), employees treated poorly, and security problems with non-vehicle related systems. The good things are the attention to crash safety and learning from mistakes on the Model S to improve the Model 3. Also, the delays in the Model 3 are follow on effects from the delays of the Model X due to the falcon wing doors.
These inside looks at a company’s dirty laundry are always scary. Of course, I just have to think about my previous car, where the manufacturer cheated on emissions tests, causing a huge increase in NOx, which has contributed to deaths from air pollution, as well as costing the company billions. It’s been in the news. My other car’s manufacturer went bankrupt a while ago, and also had some scandals where they covered up engineering reports about cars turning off unexpectedly, turning off power stearing, brakes, and disabling airbags. It killed some people, so that made the news, too.
The main thing I got out of that piece, is that Tesla cars are mostly run by a huge bash script. I approve of that, because 90% of the “programing” I do starts #!/bin/bash[FONT=Trebuchet MS]. [/FONT]Also, the cars talk back to Tesla over OpenVPN, which is cool, because I use OpenVPN, too. Mostly on my phone, so AT&T can’t give me secret cookies or track everything I do. Anyway, I hope Tesla has turned off compression on their OpenVPN.
Bash? Possibly not, but maybe. It really depends on the details of what they’re using it for. Are they using it to launch a bunch of processes on start, aka /etc/init? Then, yes, bash is probably a good tool for the job. Of course at some point those init scripts can get very complicated, and you end up inventing systemd.
Could they have a bash script waiting for input:
while [$CarOn]
read button
case $button in
horn)
/usr/bin/honk
;;
left)
/usr/bin/signal --left
;;
right)
/usr/bin/signal --right
;;
*)
/bin/true
;;
esac
done
[FONT=Trebuchet MS]Then, no, obviously not.[/FONT]
[FONT=Trebuchet MS]
[/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS]Is OpenVPN the right tool for the job? Almost certainly. Sure it could be any of the SWANs, tinc, an ssh tunnel, etc, but I’ve not seen a good argument to avoid OpenVPN. It’s pretty low weight, easy to setup to run without interaction, and still have it be secure. It’s part of a mature and actively maintained project, who respond to bug reports. None of that has any bearing on whether they set it up correctly or securely. That is all assuming the goal is to setup an encrypted connection between the cars and their backend. If their goal with OpenVPN is to save 20% on data costs by compressing a clear text stream, then no, it is not right.
[/FONT]
The judge made almost exactly the same argument that I made earlier in the thread:
However, while Plaintiffs claim that Tesla and its officers (collectively “Defendants”) fell short of their production goals, a firm’s failure to meet projections is only actionable if the firm did not accompany those projections with meaningful qualifications. Because Plaintiffs fail to allege that Defendants made any projections that were not so qualified, their claims fail.
No doubt; that one was not nearly as qualified as the others. I posit that “considering” acts as a partial qualifier and the rest can be quibbled with. But we’ll just have to wait to see what the SEC says. I made my prediction. Where’s yours?
A concrete prediction. I like it. I think you’re wrong–I don’t think there will be any broad shareholder compensation–but we’ll have to see what the result is a few months from now.
To clarify one thing: do you think that the SEC will find that Musk made a definitively untrue statement? Your prediction seems to assume that will be the case, but maybe you are limiting the scope of your prediction to just that situation.
Jesus Christ. he said “funding secured” (which means “I have financial backing”) and gave a target price for buying out shares. Both of which were FALSE. for God’s sake, there’s no scope. He said what he said, and people acted on what he said. People who lost money acting on his misleading statements. We have laws against what he did for a reason.
This isn’t grade school rumor bullshit. This is playing with millions (or billions) of dollars of other people’s money. Your “clever” attempts at making excuses for his nonsense aren’t even cute.
I’ve said my piece; I could be wrong, and the only thing left is to wait and see what the SEC investigation finds. What’s your prediction?
If things actually reach a point to where Tesla or Musk have to seriously defend themselves, I expect them to make this argument: because Tesla’s share price did not instantly rocket to $420, shareholders clearly ascribed a great deal of uncertainty to the statement. That they did not consider things to be a done deal is (I expect them to argue) itself evidence that they felt there was a great deal of wiggle room.