Texas 2025 redistricting standoff -- what is endgame?

Which has to be absolute political puffery; state legislators leaving their own state and breaking their own state’s laws is so far out of the FBI’s jurisdiction that it’s beyond absurd.

What federal law have they broken, after all?

Hah! More like the other way around. This is the fourth (3rd? 5th?) time the Texas Democrats have done this that I can recall. The main problem that crops up is that they eventually run out of cash to stay elsewhere, and/or personal stuff like jobs, families, etc… require their attention back home.

As far as I can tell, it is a date rape shield in the form of a grossly oversized corsage. Every Texas debutant wants one for homecoming, though.

Stranger

Date rape shield? I thought that was what the big buckles where for.

Are they supposed to be slaves, then?

BACKFIRE: Texas Governor CRASHES & BURNS over walkout

according to marc elias (around the 12 mark of the video) the democrats need to hold out long enough that the redistricting can not happen for the 2026 election. texas has an early deadline for election ballots. they need to hold out until dec. or jan..

california has a longer run up to election ballots and can move their maps after the texas deadline.

moves and countermoves.

This is the kind of Supreme Court that would re-affirm the Dred Scott v. Sandford decision.

Under what legal authority the FBI or other federal law enforcement agency (a.k.a. the US Marshals Service which is typically the organization responsible for tracking fugitives across state lines) could arrest and ‘repatriate’ state legislators without extradition proceedings is unclear but I wouldn’t put it past Pam Bondi to try.

Stranger

(Emphasis mine) – seems to me that could be changed as well. Which is why I wonder if the Ds have to stay away until November. (or maybe a bit earlier as ballots for military are sent beforehand)

Brian

If Texas rules are like Congress, it is actually illegal to not attend a session without the permission of the presiding officer, thus during a quorum call, absent members are arrested and must answer to the presiding officer. This dates back to English Parliament where it is illegal for a member to either resign or not attend.

Video mentioned primaries which does move up the deadline - video guesses November/December 2025 is when it will be too late for redistricting.

Brian

Still unclear how federal law enforcement gets drawn into what is a purely intrastate political conflict, especially in ‘States Rights’ country.

Stranger

I was addressing the claims of slavery from PatrickLondon & you. It’s not slavery.
As for the FBI involvement, I imagine if you violate state law nd cross state line there could be federal involvement but I don’t know how far that extends.

So for a couple of days, eh? :wink: Thanks for fighting my ignorance!

It seems like a tactic more recently employed in the US, though. I remember being appalled when I read about it here in Oregon.

There are only a few states–I’m pretty sure it’s in the mid-single digits–where this kind of screwball walkout thing is even possible. Most states sensibly follow the federal example and set the quorum requirement at a majority of members.

The first part is correct. I disagree with the second part, about the GOP being worried. Instead, the new map shows that they are trying to consolidate their new found advantage in young Latinos, especially young Latino men, voting GOP.

Take my district for example. I currently live in district 27, represented by Michael Cloud - R, a safe R district. Under the new map, I would live in district 34, presently represented by Vicente Gonzalez - D. In 2024 Gonzalez won by a 2.5% margin. In 2022, he won against his same opponent by 8.5 percent. I expect that Gonzalez will probably lose to her in 2026. Why do I expect that? The difference between 2022 and 2024 was largely that young Latinos in Brownsville and Harlingen (the eastern, slightly less densely populated part of the Rio Grande Valley metro area), swung to the GOP. How does an aspiring gerrymanderer take advantage of that? By expanding that district northward to include the “white” parts of Corpus Christi where I live. Of course this means that the district to the west, district 15, also a D district, needs to grow from somewhere. Where is that coming from? From the safe, ruby red parts of Cloud’s district 27. That district is also at risk of going R for the same reasons. The young Latinos in McAllen, Pharr, San Juan, etc. (the bulk of the Rio Grande Valley) are also moving to the right.

in other words, at least in South Texas this isn’t about diluting the Latino vote. It’s about recognizing that Latinos are now more Republican than they used to be and taking advantage of that fact. Fighting redistricting won’t change that. The only way to change that is for Democrats to win back the votes of those young Latinos. The new map would actually be more favorable to Democrats than Republicans if we assume that the traditional D voters returned to voting D. This new map is about Republicans counting on that not happening, as opposed to the old school gerrymandering that relied on diluting the votes of minorities.

…and that’s EXACTLY why you should all vote for me to win the Powerball jackpot: so that I can blanket the nation with billboards reminding them that voting for a Republican is a SIN.*

If I can shame just seventy million voters to either vote Democrat or to abstain, it will have been worth it.

*an established and uncontroversial FACT

That’s…not the way Powerball works? But crypto, on the other hand, is purely a contest of who can persuade the most people to back their scam. Definitely get the suckers on in on your memecoin drop.

Stranger

Well, it SHOULD be.

Vote early and often.

That’s where the equivocation comes into it! “In this case, the State is right to call in the Feds!”

Easy, Trump wants it to happen. He is already using the DOJ as his own legal attack dogs to deal with grudges going back to the Obama administration. There is nothing stopping him from arresting them for whatever random reason the agent in charge makes up. Take them back to Texas, deny bail as they’re demonstrated flight risks, and bring them under custody to the legislature to vote.

All of that happens in the course of a day or two, and by the time the courts have tried to unwind any of it, the redistricting is a done deal.

I think the Supreme Court has already said that districting is a political decision, and so not appropriate for the court to review it. Of course, none of that will actually apply if California gets a referendum (or ballot measure, or whatever it needs to be) through that allows them to redistrict. Then the court will find really solid reasons that what California did is wrong.

Even if it doesn’t work in Texas, they can always try again in Florida.

Trump could issue an executive order stating that as a result of the emergency, no state legislator may leave his state to avoid a vote.