Texas Democrats: you've gotta be fucking kiddin me

Look, I see what you’re saying. But let’s use an analogy – let’s say we’re looking at black vs. white candidates. Surely we can agree that people don’t always vote for a candidate based on their race, right?

But if black candidates always won their districts by an overwhelming percentage, whereas white candidate squeaked by every time they won, then things would start to look suspicious. Indeed, I might start to wonder if the folks who drew the districts did everything they could to lump white people into concentrated areas, increasing their voting power disproportionately.

Look at it this way: imagine we’ve got 10,000 people in an area, 7,000 of whom are black and 3,000 of whom are white. We’ve got ten districts of 1,000 people each.

A normal division might mean that we’d expect to see about 7 black candidates and 3 white candidates (assuming everything’s equal). But we might create districts with the following number of white people in them:

District 1: 0 white people
District 2: 0 white people
District 3: 0 white people
District 4: 600 white people
District 5: 600 white people
District 6: 600 white people
District 7: 600 white people
District 8: 600 white people
District 9: 0 white people
District 10: 0 white peopel

In this case, we might find that districts 4-8 have proportionately more white people than black people, and therefore will have proportionately more qualified white candidates than qualified black candidates, and therefore will be likelier to send a white candidate to office.

Instead of seeing 7 black candidates and 3 white candidates, we’ve gerrymandered the districts to produce 5 black candidates and 5 white candidates.

And that’s a problem, right?

Why wouldn’t it be a problem if we substituted “Republican” for “black” and “Democratic” for “white”?

Daniel

I, too, understand what you’re saying.

Except, that the analogy really runs dry when it becomes ‘party affiliation’.

In the first place - not all people voting have a party affiliation at all.

and, of those who have a party affiliation, not all of them vote straight party.

So, unless the scenario was so very skewed (as in District A where it’s 80/05/15 Rep/Dem/unaffiliated, and District B is 20/40/40, where the combined total is: 100/45/55 so that the liklihood would be one dem, one rep vs. 2 rep), I’m unwilling to make assumptions on the number of people who have no party affiliation and those who vote for the person vs/party, so that party hacks at the national level feel better.

The person who posted from Tx relating their personal gripe re: water usage has my sympathy. as do the folks in my former congressional district who are now being represented by some one who has less concern for the urban areas he has the duty to represent.

I’m not sure that would be useful Daniel, although it is a good thinking-outside-the-box type of analytical question. The thing it doesn’t take into account is WHY those people voted as they did. Did they vote that way because the incumbent(the vast majority of current elected officials, of all stripes, are incumbents) was the only name they recognized?(don’t laugh, it is extremely common for this to be the case in local elections) Had they been following the campaigns, and voted truly in accord with their ideologies? It is too “flat” a comparison. It doesn’t take into account differences between candidates, the differences between campaigns, etc. It all ignores a even larger factor, voter turnout(which is notoriously low for local elections). Anyone claiming to know what the popular ideological makeup of Texas is(and especially those claiming things about how the representation is not truly representative) should be met with extreme skepticism.

Take a look through the election results. The margins of victory were all over the map. If you were interested, you could build the data you’re looking for from the results. Even scanning through it for the differences in % of vote for each candidate will tell you that the races were not of the type you might expect if the districts were gerrymandered to benefit Democratic candidates(Republicans winning by massive landslides in the districts they won and Dems just squeaking). Some landslides for both parties, almost always wins for the incumbent though.

FTR, here are the margins of victory for the house congressional races in 2002. All election day numbers, early voting margins were all over the place too.

District, Winner’s party, margin of vicotry, Incumbent?
Dist 1, D, 13%, Incumbent
Dist 2, D, 22%, Incumbent
Dist 3, R, 49%, Incumbent
Dist 4, D, 17%, Incumbent
Dist 5, D, 18%, No Incumbent
Dist 6, R, 43%, Incumbent
Dist 7, R, 77%, Incumbent(No Democratic opponent, lost 11% of the vote to a libertarian :eek: )
Dist 8, R, 87%, Incumbent(No Democratic candidate)
Dist 9, D, 18%, Incumbent
Dist 10, D, 70%, Incumbent(No GOP opposition, lost 15% of the vote to a libertarian :eek: )
Dist 11, D, 4%, Incumbent
Dist 12, R, 83%, Incumbent (No Democratic opponent, managed to keep the libertarians in check ;))
Dist 13, R, 59%, Incumbent
Dist 14, R, 37%, Incumbent
Dist 15, D, unopposed, Incumbent
Dist 16, D, unopposed, Incumbent
Dist 17, D, 4%, Incumbent
Dist 18, D, 56%, Incumbent
Dist 19, R, 83%, Incumbent(No Democratic candidate)
Dist 20, D, unopposed, Incumbent
Dist 21, R, 47%, Incumbent
Dist 22, R, 28%, Incumbent
Dist 23, R, 4%, Incumbent
Dist 24, D, 31%, Incumbent
Dist 25, D, 13%, No Incumbent
Dist 26, R, 52%, No Incumbent
Dist 27, D, 25%, Incumbent
Dist 28, D, 45%, Incumbent
Dist 29, D, 91%, Incumbent(No GOP candidate)
Dist 30, D, 50%, Incumbent
Dist 31, R, 42%, No Incumbent
Dist 32, R, 37%, No Incumbent

As you can see, the numbers are all over the place. I think a very good question would be, if Texas was so thoroughly conservative/Republican, why didn’t the GOP even bother fielding a candidate in five full districts? That is five seats in Congress they didn’t even bother to fight for? If the districts were gerrymandered to favor the Democrats and we’d expect democrats to have small margins of victory, wouldn’t that encourage you to fight every battle because you’re almost certain to win the ones they’ve locked your power base into, and you’ve got a shot at the others?

I’m afraid I don’t buy into the theory that Texas is currently gerrymandered in favor of Democrats.

Enjoy,
Steven

Ok, I’d just like to add that if you type the word “Incumbent” enough times you begin to doubt your own sanity. God that is a messed-up word. It just looks WRONG, even if you KNOW it is right. Like “choir”.

ARGG

Enjoy,
Steven

Hey minty! Stop on by.

Enjoy,
Steven

We have carefully analyzed Dewey’s above comment that mentioned Willy. We have determined that it contains no actionable insult or disrespect, though it trifles with innuendo. His advantage in nativity was noted. Indictment quashed.

Actually I’d think Willie would be squarely in the pubbie’s camp. After all, they’re the ones wanting to cut taxes…

Enjoy,
Steven

Unlike Republicans, however, Willie eventually paid his tax bill. Plus, there is that whole dope-smoking thing . . .

“I gave up whiskey for weed in 1975. It may be the only smart thing I ever did.”

  • Himself.

Oh, I should add that in my chart above “No Incumbent” is not the same as “Not Incumbent”. “No Incumbent” means it was a new seat created by the 2001 redistricting(in response to the 2000 census) or there was no Incumbent for some other reason(the Incumbent refused to run again, died, etc).

Enjoy,
Steven

I haven’t read every post in the thread, but in our Akron paper today is an op-ed piece from the Waco paper. http://www.ohio.com/mld/beaconjournal/news/editorial/5874405.htm

I thought an interesting point brought up is that the Republicans are doing this in Colorado and Georgia also. Rove is going after Colorado.

To add to Homebrew’s comments about Dallas, looking at the Houston map gives me the same kind of shivers.

In Houston, everything within Loop 610 can be considered quite liberal (apart from some very wealthy neighborhoods like River Oaks). The suburbs to the north, northwest, west, and southwest are extremely conservative. To the east are poorer neighborhoods and cities centered around the oil refineries. A rough look at the map pairs the exact rich suburbs with neatly portioned chunks of liberal inner city. Pearland and the rural suburbs to the south would be paired with the Third Ward. Delay’s District 7 extends into very Hispanic regions near west 610 (as well as including Bellaire, which is quite rich). It appears to pair off the ultra-liberal Montrose and Heights areas with the conservative Woodlands in District 25.

The worst insult of the whole thing is that it appears to move Delay’s District 7 into Meyerland. Which is where I am. I swear to the IPU, if I am put into Delay’s district, I will self-immolate myself. I’ll call out KPRC, who will air anything. I’ll provide beer, weenies, and marshmallows and I will invite anyone who will sign a waiver to vote straight-ticket Democrat.

This redistricting plan is good incentive for me to work extra hard to finish up school before the next time the Legislature meets. I cherish my Fightin’ Texas Longhorns, the City of Austin, and all of the cool stuff in Houston (the Medical Center, Montrose, Heights, Chinatown, Little Vietnam and India, etc. etc.) and although I am not a native Texan, I have spent 23 of my 27 years here (19 of which in Houston to my reckoning). Since this is the Pit, there is something I have to get off of my chest.

Fuck this state. Get me the hell out of here. I hope that the Republicans continue their unbridled rape of this state, to turn it into a microcosm of where they will lead this country if given the opportunity: a foul, polluted, acrimonious pit short on civil liberties run by a permanent aristocracy seeking to keep their grips on power while keeping a permanent underclass who have little chance for advancement. Texas will be a place where corporate interests are the only interests. As much as I would love to stick around here and work patiently to fix the problems, most people will stay rooted in their redneck conservatism until the problems batter them into a bloody pulp. And I am not waiting for that to happen. Hopefully a couple of doctorates will get me a ticket out.

I’ve been on the SDMB for 3.5 years or so and I have managed to mostly avoid rants. So I’m cutting loose. I’m not providing any cites, I’m not apologizing, I’m not justifying. I’m just sick of this polluted shithole and I need out. I’ve traveled the world and Houston is pretty close to the last place I’ve been where I would want to settle. And I’ve been to Siberia and Johannesburg. Fuck 7 months of intolerable heat and saturating humidity. Fuck permanent allergies. Fuck constant traffic. Fuck ineffective public transportation and 24 lane freeway solutions. Fuck 19% uninsured (health care) and the BandAid measure which is Harris County Hospital District. Fuck totally unrealistic Olympic bids (when are they gonna have the Summer Games? In November?) when schools crumble. Fuck living in a city which is 80% covered by a 100 year floodplain which floods every 5 years. And mostly, fuck Tom Delay, fuck George Bush, and fuck of all of these Texas politicians (Dems and Reps) who have the chutzpah to call themselves “leaders.” So give me my degrees and I’m heading out. Like a fetus. At least until I find out how horrible everywhere else is.

Dewey, Dewey…

The Dems went to Oklahoma for a reason.

They made the sacrifice, knowing that no self respecting Ranger would go after them.

As for the ever-lovely Tom DeLay…I live in his district. I work in his current hometown. I know about a zillion Fort Bend County Republicans. I cannot find a single human being that will admit to voting for him. The only person less liked that TommyBoy is his spouse. (Barks. Chases cars. Bites ankles. Of course, if I had to be married to Tom DeLay, so would I.) How he wins? Fear, intimidation, and the knowledge that it at least keeps his mangy ass in Washington for a good portion of the year.

I have had the misfortune of knowing Weasel-Boy DeLay for decades. Our grandmothers in Corpus Christi were in Garden Club or some such nonesense together. You know the old joke about tying a steak around a kid’s neck to get the dog to play with it? That was Tom as a kid. He was a disgusting little puke at age 10, and he’s a disgusting big puke today.

Didja know that Kreuz Market moved out to the highway? There was an interfamily spat over the property, and the Kreuz name went out to the new place, but the pits and property became Smitty’s. Both are on the top five in the latest Texas Monthly BBQ issue. (In Lockhart, I prefer Black’s BBQ. Habit, I think.) But if ya get home again…Louis Mueller in Taylor. Yeah, baby…that’s some BBQ. Oh, and City Market in Luling hit the top 5 as well. The sauce there is a little too mustardy for my taste, but it ain’ none of that sweet glop like da grocery store has…and who needs sauce on good meat?

Come home as soon as you can. Livin’ outside of Texas is A Bad Thing, if you can call it livin’.

Well, it’s official: the Democrats won. For now, at least. The fugitives are back in Austin, after getting a promise that this issue won’t be raised again this session.

At the moment, that’s probably best. Texas has serious budget problems, and though I think the Republican case for redistricting was unassailable, it shouldn’t have been the GOP’s top priority, and it shouldn’t have been sprung at this late date.

That said… the Democrats are toast in the long run, and they must know it. Their trick prevailed this time, but it won’t in the next session. What they can and should do is cut the best deal they can to protect as many of their seats as they can, knowing that ultimately they’re NOT going to keep a majority of Texas’ Congressional seats in perpetuity.

Because, like it or not, Texas IS a Republican state, it’s going to remain a Republican state, and redistricting will come up again. If Tom DeLay were here right now, he’d say (in the immortal words of Jesus from “The Big Lebowski”):

“Bush league psych-out stuff. Laughable! I was gonna fuck you in the ass Saturday. Now I’m gonna fuck you in the ass Wednesday, instead!”

Well, there’s always the hope that they might make good on thier promise and secede. As a recovering Texan, I have long endorsed this view.

The upside is that we will all get an opportunity to observe what happens when these political troglodytes get thier way. We’ll see the results of the experiment, when people who run things would rather make money than breathe.

The downside, of course, is that vast numbers of the weak and helpless will suffer. Texas eats its young.

Quick question. I have no doubts there are some inequities in the current districting plan, but all the facts and figures I’ve seen(and I’ve seen a LOT) seem to indicate that it is primarially inertia(the continual voting for incumbents and the maintaining of the status quo(ironically a major facet of the conservative outlook))which is keeping those seats for the Dems. If the the voters actually voted party-line or, perhaps, ideology we may see the kind of shift you seem to expect, but I’m not convinced. Texas is conservative, but so are many of our “Democrats”. I’m afraid I just don’t see why people are insisting the Federal House Representatives from Texas are so obviously not representative of the actual population. Is it because of the "D"s and "R"s? What a pathetically shallow measure! Why in hell would someone assert that that Texas’s interests are not being represented accurately at the Federal level based upon such a shallow statistic?

Party discipline is NOT enforced in the US. As has been noted, Texas Democrats are a pretty damn conservative bunch. The “party” they belong to is irrelevant. What matters is the representation they give to their constituents. Now, what evidence do you have that they are not representative other than their “party affiliation”. We could start with voting records versus credible public opinion polls conducted in each representative’s district if you like. I’m afraid I’m not going to buy into the “they just are” arguement that DeLay is putting forth though.**

I disagree. I wouldn’t disagree if you said Texas was a conservative state, but I don’t buy the correlation that conservatism is necessarially equal to Republicanism.

Enjoy,
Steven

’luce, you make the baby Willie cry.

Oh, and if the Republican’s retain their Texas Legislature majority for the next session(and the Dems retain enough to deny a quorum) I’d expect them to be far more subtle about re-districting. Bring it up earlier in the session and let the people see what they’re doing with maps as clearly fucked up as they proposed this time and I predict they’ll get far more popular backlash than they did this time.

FYI, anyone who wants good maps with all kinds of options(political, physical landmarks, population centers, historical boundries, etc) can start here Click the big “Make Maps” button and it will take you to an interactive page where you can make your own maps and overlay tons of different types of data. Wouldn’t help with things like proposed re-districting(the site only tracks real changes, not proposed ones) but it is extremely useful for things like population and geographic features.

Enjoy,
Steven

Another strange turn: Texas Dems threatened by WD-40 manufacturer.

OK, it’s not really related to the flight to Oklahoma, except that many of the same Texas Dems are involved. I just think it’s funny. :slight_smile:

They should probably be sued for picking such a dorky nickname.

You pick a user name from the Three Stooges and yer talkin’ about “dorky”?

And say, while we’re here, whats your perfectly reasonable explanation for all the document shredding? National security? Right to privacy?

Anything that shines the light on Tom DeLay is OK in my book! When ever I see his reptilian visage on TV, I can hear America cringe! All the attributes of a gila monster, save that he lacks the charm.

The Three Stooges RULE.**

Que? To what do you refer?