Warned y’all about Ohio, I did. Talked to a lot of people around here and the typical middle-class Democrat demographic was pretty solidly Clintonite. Obama needed big turnouts from the inner-city voters in Toledo-Columbus-Cleveland-Cincy, and the weather didn’t facilitate that at all. Not sure how the numbers break down, yet, but I’d be willing to bet that there was relatively depressed turnout in some of those areas, even though the state as a whole had some pretty strong seeming turnout for this primary.
Personally, if everyone is into calculating delegates, I prefer this site at MSNBC, where they don’t add in superdelegates at all. That gives you a truer picture of things, since we know that the superdelegate totals will fluctuate with the tides of fortune. Obama still comfortably ahead there, missing only the Texas Caucus results. Still, Clinton picked up at least 23 delegates more than Obama from Ohio and Texas Primary, and no one is able to metaphorically stick the fork in her now.
And for what it is worth, I think all the people who post here who are posting these rabidly anti-Clinton tracts would do better to emulate Obama himself and stop that type of posting. It does nothing to sway people’s hearts and minds towards Obama; instead it makes you look like unthinking fanatics.
Clinton did not win anywhere near the margin she needed to cinch anything. Obama is still ahead, and will most likely take the majority of delegates from the lone start state. That being said, he needs to turn up the heat in a big way.
There is nothing in the party rules that relates to removing ones name off of a ballot. Obama did that partly as a strategic move back when Clinton was the front runner. He was able to convince the other secondary candidates to follow along.
It was also done to appease the Iowa and New Hampshire, obviously.
It could argued that Clinton was penalized for her failure to remove her name from the MI ballot with a poor showing in Iowa.
If nothing else comes of the voting that was done by Michigan on 1/15, I hope it convinces the DNC that the sacred early state status of Iowa and New Hampshire must change.
Clinton needs to win the next 12 states by 60% to catch Obama. With this boost to her campaign, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the next 6 weeks until Penn. Obama needs to show the superdeleagtes his national security acumen is on par, if he can’t do that it’s not going to fair well for him.
These latest wins by Clinton do not mean she’s cinched anything. In pledged delegates she only gained 6. He still leads by 106 pledged delegates. That is nearly insurmountable with the amount of states left.
This fight will go the convention unless Obama wins the next three straight states. But for people like myself who are big Obama supporters it means another 6 weeks of high blood pressure and heated debates. Obama better come locked and loaded with twin 50 cal. gatling guns or he’s going to appear like he can’t defeat McCain.
This is where the nominee will be decided who can last the long haul.
Well, BobLibDem, this time your predictions were far closer than mine. Boy did I miss.
No it is highly improbable that she can close the totally pledged delegate gap, The end result of the election yesterday is likely under two dozen and, if I understand it right, the next week favors Obama.
But she did that which she needed to do to keep her hopes alive. There is a chance, a real chance, that between Pennsylvania (a closed primary btw), and a possible vote over in Florida, that she can get it close enough that her performance in big states and battleground states will convince enough supers that they should (or can justify) voting for her. It’s a long shot but possible.
The person who benefits from this most is, of course McCain. This primary will get even more costlyfor the Dems - both in money (think 30 - 40 million each for Pennsylvania and Florida if it runs) and the candidate who wins.
And if the Democratic Party loses the White House this year then they have no one to blame but their own leadership, and should follow Nader’s advice and just hang it up.
I’ll be most curious to see what the supers start doing now. Sitting on their hands or moving in either direction.
I’ll tell you what the supers are not going to do. They are not going to all start jumping over to Clinton. She won 3 states yesterday and the biggest margin being in Ohio. Texas and Ri were squeakers for her, and in delegates she only came within 6 pledged delegates of where she and Obama were before the mar.4 primaries.
She has a psychological boost, but that’s about it. What does this say about her campaign…well, it says her negative ads worked to some degree, and it says that there are a lot of people out there who still want her in this…Obama needs to get locked and loaded to make this count, and everyone stumbles. Clinton stumbled over 12 straight losses, then picked up three. It’s not like she is in the lead right now… So Obama supporters need to read this loud and clear - He needs to step up his game, keep and eye on the prize and kick her ass between now and Pennsylvania.
There really isn’t any ass to kick between here and Pennsylvania, though. There’s MS and WY this week, which I guess Obama will win, and supposedly a big endorsement from a group of superdelegates - combined that’ll probably give him a bigger lead than he had yesterday, - but if it’s not over in a week or so, it’s going until late April at least.
I didn’t sleep a wink last night Marley - then when I finally gave up I went into the office, flipped on the computer and puked because I knew right then and there this was going all the way and nothing was over. Well she fought and she won a little. Delegate wise it’s still fair to say she’s way behind. But she’s going to use these wins to say she has all the momentum to go all the way to the white house. I bet she continues with the negative campaign ads and unless Barack hits back, and hits back hard he going to look lame. He’s got to retool and regroup and bring it!
News would be a lot easier to watch if she didn’t have that joker grin from ear to ear.
Several references to the hills of the nation delivered in the emotional style of Martin L. King Jr on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial. Is this guy for real ?
So is Obama going to end up with more delegates in Texas? According to CNN, she only netted 6 in the primary, and he’s up by the same percentage she whn by in the caucuses with a third of them reporting.
Turnout for primaries has historically had little connection with the eventual election results, and
Of course you’re going to get more people out for a primary that matters than for one that does not. McCain’s nomination has been a certainty for quite some time now; there was no real reason for people to go to much effort to vote in the Texas primary. The Democratic nomination, despite the “Clinton has no chance whatsoever” crowd we have here, is still a horse race, and in fact is one of the most interesting primary races in quite some time, and Texas’s votes matter.
The fact that you can find 2,000,000 Democrats in Texas is not exactly a miracle given that there’s twenty-four million people there.
CNN is reporting that counting in the Texas caucus stopped at 1 a.m. last night, and they’re back at it now. I just saw Obama up by 56% to 44% with 39 percent of the precincts counted.
