That is why Clinton failed so miserably. She tried some last ditch efforts to put a video together [unless that vid was a farce] and other organizing tactics and they failed and continue to fail. Her biggest supporters are her husband [who just said on national tv TX and OH are do or die for Hillary] and her Daughter [who she publicly critisizes her job for working for a hedge fund] this campaign almost appears to be fixed to fail.
I just wonder if Obama knew that coming into it or if it snowballed in his lap. I’d like to think the former.
I’m trying to hone my predictions for March 4 … anyone know what percentage of voters in Ohio and Texas would consider themselves “independent”? To my read these voters coming out for Obama, now in even more record numbers given that the Pubbie side is so solidly settled, has been what has had him win well beyond polling expectations. I knew Wisconsin had a large number of such voters. Do Texas and Ohio have similar independent numbers?
After some research for my mother, voters in Ohio may vote in either primary, no matter which party they are registered with. Such a vote will change their registration, but they can go right back down and change it back if they like. Not the same day, I think.
[Here.](How do I establish which political party’s ballot I am entitled to vote?)
He’ll take both. Independents will put him over the top by close to 10% in Ohio and between independents and the caucuses a similar sized victory or slightly higher in Texas. This prediction is subject to revision upward only as it gets closer.
A note on electability, a factor I think many Texans are considering.
The following states are being won by Obama and lost by Clinton by statistically significant margins (e.g. at least one of the polls is outside the MOE): Iowa, Oregon, Michigan, Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado.
Meanwhile, there isn’t a single state where Clinton is beating McCain but Obama isn’t.
That, in addition to the national polling, is a pretty powerful argument for electability. Granted, the picture will change. But Democrats have got to be asking themselves whether they’d like to start with a winning edge and try to hold it, or start losing and try to win it.
Hillary Clinton assumed that the nomination would be handed to her on a silver platter. Thus, she failed to do any of the groundwork needed to actually earn it until very late in the game. That is now coming back to bite her.
Good for them! As a student myself, I’m pleased to see my generation moving towards the political vigor and awareness of the sixties. Why isn’t any of this on the news yet?
Actually, I don’t think most Texans are thinking about electability.
Texas Democrats matter on a national stage for the first time in a long time. We know Texas is going Republican in the fall. We aren’t going to elect a Senator or any statewide office in the forseeable future, unless there is some fluke.
The latest Ohio polls have Obama and Clinton neck-and-neck in Texas, while Clinton has about an 8-point lead in Ohio, down from 20+ a few weeks ago. Obama is really on the move here, I think. FWIW, I’ve seen far more Obama yard signs around the eastern 'burbs of Cleveland, and have heard maybe a dozen Obama radio ads but just two for Clinton. NPR this morning had a report from Toledo, where the Obama HQ was humming but noticeably fewer people were volunteering for Clinton. I expect to do some phonebanking for Obama tonight myself; the candidates will be debating at Cleveland State U., but I couldn’t get a ticket. Still, it’s a good time to be an Ohio Democrat!
It is a great time to be an Ohio Democrat. A good friend and colleague of mine lives in Cincinnati and work for UC and said that after this rally, the ENTIRE campus was abuzz with Obama and that she as a professor of Psychology was especially pleased with the high student turn out for him. Aparently there was supposed to be a Clinton rally the week before but it was cancelled.
She also mentions that Obama staffers were on campus a month ago, planning and scouting. If that’s not organization I don’t know what is. She goes on to infer what many are thinking already in the buckeye state, that Obama appears to be much more organized and on the ball than the Clinton Campaign.
Shayna the other day posted a news paper article about how Clinton has had a tough time filling her staffing centers, citing problems with organizers and managers. And one aparent field office scheduled to open went unmanned for 4 hours before the Clinton supporters outside dispersed and left.
No kidding, Jolly Roger! Judging by their respective campaigns, it’s clear that Obama is way ahead of Clinton in executive competence and strategic analysis.
And just what organization(s) HAS Hillary run, other than campaigns?
You can argue about his executive experience, but Obama’s community organization work and the contacts he made are clearly paying off in spades. He and his people have stymied two of the biggest names in Democratic politics and fought them to at least a draw.
The ability to inspire action on the little-people level gives you a force multiplier in campaigning, GOTV, and even fund raising that is difficult to compete with. It seems like a perfect meeting of candidate and campaign.
Rasmussen says Obama’s pulled within 5% of Clinton in Ohio, 48-43.
A new Survey USA poll of Ohio will be released later today. Since they released Ohio polls 2 weeks ago (Clinton 56-39) and 1 week ago (Clinton 52-43), that’d provide a serious trend marker.
I think there may also be a trend of seeing Obama’s real support being under-represented in the polls. I’ve read that telephone polling may have become less accurate with the advent of cell-phone-only households (not to mention caller ID) and may skew things somwhat to older people who are more likely to have landlines.
The Wisconsin polls showed Obama (IIRC) with about a 5 point lead in the polls but I don’t recall anything that suggested the 17 point blowout he ended up with. I think it’s possible that Obama might pull significantly more votes than what’s showing up on the polls and he might just end up winning both Texas and Ohio. If that happens, I don’t think Hillary would have any choice but to withdraw.